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Are support and resistance levels predetermined?

  • #401
  • Edited 8:45am Oct 24, 2013 8:02am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting jmss59
Hi hollowhead, ask your opinion. Consider this possible operation failed? or maybe I forgot something and ought not go? {image}

Hi jmss - it's a hard one. When I asked bobi about SL he said he didn't use one and hedged a position the other way. I have done this, and am currently hedged on the EJ using the T4F (similar place to your chart). It broke up, reversed and crossed the 100% (a trend reversal signal which should go down to opposite target 23.6%). It's now gone up again over 100%, so I have a 95 pip lock at the moment. So this tells me price isconsolidating. My overall view of EJ is that I am looking for it to go higher.

  1. T4Y_1130 broken 23.6% should reach 50% 1.3755
  2. T4Y_680 - 50% broken by 59 pips should reach 1.3639

So, my plan is to keep the lock until I get another long signal on T4F or T5_103. If that trade profits it will unlock the hedge and give me a positive net pips. If it fails again, I guess I will hedge again and look to unlock again - eventually it has to unlock somewhere.

I have done similar on EJ and Oil already. I was short it crossed the 100% I opened a short (hedging the long) let it hit the TP, left the original trade open and it reversed all the way back to hit the original target. They were sweet trades.

The hard thing with the T5_103 template is that I don't see a natural place for SL or hedge other that a signal the other way, but that causes the R:R to be about 3:1 which in conventional trading theory is really bad - but this is by no means conventional trading!!

I am still finalizing my trade entry/exit rules, but I am thinking that I will only take a T4F trade in the direction of a previous set target by 965, 680 or 1130 (or T5_1030). I will hedge the reversal (break of the 100%). And then look to use another long entry to unlock it.

I hope that makes some sense. This system is relatively simple in finding entries and exits, but trade management is a real challenge.

I also currently have three positions open on GU, 2 short and 1 long. It will be interesting to see how it pans out - it could get ugly .

I will post charts with these two later on, but they could take some time to unlock (or fail spectacularly).

  • #402
  • Oct 24, 2013 9:08am Oct 24, 2013 9:08am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Hi jmss - it's a hard one. When I asked bobi about SL he said he didn't use one and hedged a position the other way. I have done this, and am currently hedged on the EJ using the T4F (similar place to your chart). It broke up, reversed and crossed the 100% (a trend reversal signal which should go down to opposite target 23.6%). It's now gone up again over 100%, so I have a 95 pip lock at the moment. So this tells me price isconsolidating. My overall view of EJ is that I am looking for it to go higher. T4Y_1130 broken 23.6% should reach 50%...
Thanks for taking the time to answer me. Could you tell me, if you have no drawback, as you cover the position if the price reverses direction? You place an order with a few pips inverse difference, how?
The EU is the key level T5Y_965 23.6. If you can break it, will continue the uptrend and if reversed in that area can attend an important correcion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 33n4.jpg Size: 287 KB
  • #403
  • Oct 24, 2013 9:34am Oct 24, 2013 9:34am
Quoting jmss59
{quote} Thanks for taking the time to answer me. Could you tell me, if you have no drawback, as you cover the position if the price reverses direction? You place an order with a few pips inverse difference, how? The EU is the key level T5Y_965 23.6. If you can break it, will continue the uptrend and if reversed in that area can attend an important correcion {image}
I do have drawdown while it is hedged. Example enter long at 1.6200, Set a pending short at 1.6000 (this acts as my SL). If my long reverses and triggers the short I have two positions that cancel each other out with a drawdown of 200 pips - this is the lock.

Now, to unlock the drawdown I have two choices.

1. Wait for a signal or signals (either way) that give me a profit of 200 pips (or more). I can then close all positions for a net break even or profit.
or
2. Allow the short trade run its course and TP and then let it reverse back up again to either break even or to the original long TP.

Using method 2 is more aggressive and needs you to be utterly convinced that the first target is going to met eventually (meaning the second trade (hedge) covered a pullback). Method 2 gives more pips if it works, Method 1 is more of a 'rescue' method if you are unsure of the position or the market has changed.

The attached method may also help - I haven't used it yet myself, but it shows another way you can hedge by changing lot size.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf AWESOME-Forex-Trading-Strategy-(never-lose-again).pdf   389 KB | 4,124 downloads
  • #404
  • Oct 24, 2013 9:53am Oct 24, 2013 9:53am
Here as a chart to show how I could trade out of my EJ lock. This is my live chart which doesn't show the abonacci/fib lines
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trading out of a lock.png Size: 233 KB
  • #405
  • Oct 24, 2013 11:32pm Oct 24, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} I do have drawdown while it is hedged. Example enter long at 1.6200, Set a pending short at 1.6000 (this acts as my SL). If my long reverses and triggers the short I have two positions that cancel each other out with a drawdown of 200 pips - this is the lock. Now, to unlock the drawdown I have two choices. 1. Wait for a signal or signals (either way) that give me a profit of 200 pips (or more). I can then close all positions for a net break even or profit. or 2. Allow the short trade run its course and TP and then let it reverse back up...

Yes that is a good strategy, however, there is no hedging allowed in the US. So, I hope Bobi has some other ideas for us here in the US.
  • #406
  • Oct 25, 2013 12:35am Oct 25, 2013 12:35am
The way around it in the US is to open another sub-acct with your broker for those hedged trades
  • #407
  • Oct 25, 2013 12:46am Oct 25, 2013 12:46am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
The way around it in the US is to open another sub-acct with your broker for those hedged trades

Thanks
  • #408
  • Oct 25, 2013 5:26pm Oct 25, 2013 5:26pm
What a mind-numbing end to the week!! No movement, no chance to unlock my hedges. Let's hope next week brings a little more action.
  • #409
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:59pm Oct 25, 2013 6:59pm
only few people can draw either trend or horizontal support or resistance) correctly.
few of those few poeple are more smart, so they integrate it with moving averages, which are basically trend indicators.

there are 1) timing, when you expect the falleys and peaks to exist?
2) news!! my rule: strong news move prices to strong technical points!
Enter Signature
  • #410
  • Oct 26, 2013 9:53am Oct 26, 2013 9:53am
Hi Bobi,


A big THANK YOU for sharing this novel approach with us.


Please can you kindly give the BASELINE FOR GBP/JPY.


Your kind response will be highly appreciated.
  • #411
  • Oct 27, 2013 12:38pm Oct 27, 2013 12:38pm
Hi Bobi... in the monthly calculators you used to post extreme bull and bear levels...

are you able to post these for us for the E/U... or can these be found in the templates? thanks for your time
  • #412
  • Oct 27, 2013 1:56pm Oct 27, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting aebab
Abonacci Templates for EUR/JPY T4F, Phase Length=220 pips Baseline=125.8 T5_2_2, Phase Length=965 pips Baseline=549 T5_1_103, Phase Length=103 pips Baseline=131 Note: Please use the new Abonacci indicator to be able to generate more phases {file}
Hi Bobi,
Thank a lot for for your precious sharing.
Please can you kindly give the BASELINE FOR EUR/AUD.

thank again.
  • #413
  • Oct 28, 2013 2:23am Oct 28, 2013 2:23am
Only 21 pages and already it's one big mess :-)

I'm sure there's much value in this (and the 'old') thread, because the subject ('Fibonacci's) is really amazing, but why not start over, clean up all garbage and offer people a 'step by step' method for trading this thing??? Happens with most (usually longer) threads though...

Just my two cents
95% of the people don't believe 100% they can win, that's why they lose
  • #414
  • Oct 28, 2013 3:16am Oct 28, 2013 3:16am
Quoting Ronald123
Only 21 pages and already it's one big mess :-) I'm sure there's much value in this (and the 'old') thread, because the subject ('Fibonacci's) is really amazing, but why not start over, clean up all garbage and offer people a 'step by step' method for trading this thing??? Happens with most (usually longer) threads though... Just my two cents
IMHO I don't think Bobi's intention is to give poeple a step by step trading method - he stated that he has given enough to show that people need to revaluate the direction they are going.

In my experience the best threads are the ones I have had to read many times, study charts and work out a way I can trade with what's shared. Making it your own is the key to someone else's success - not sollowing steps. IMO there are ways to make profit in these 21 pages of 'mess'.

PS The only thing that worries me is that Bobi won't supply baslines next year, but that's up to him - he studied for years to discover them, not me - but if I get a few months profit out of the system I will be eternally grateful he shared anything.
  • #415
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:02am Oct 28, 2013 6:02am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} IMHO I don't think Bobi's intention is to give poeple a step by step trading method - he stated that he has given enough to show that people need to revaluate the direction they are going. In my experience the best threads are the ones I have had to read many times, study charts and work out a way I can trade with what's shared. Making it your own is the key to someone else's success - not sollowing steps. IMO there are ways to make profit in these 21 pages of 'mess'. PS The only thing that worries me is that Bobi won't supply baslines next...

Take any chart, draw Fibs on it and be amazed at how price seems to respect those levels... Self fulfilling prophecy or not, who's to say - I for one am a believer that there's more between heaven and earth than the naked eye can see.

This doesn't mean, however, that one cannot (or should not) present things in a more understandable and clear way. But you're right, of course, in stating that it's up to the individual how, where, if (etc.) he or she wants to go about things. It's also up to me to comment on it (after all, this is a 'forum', isn't it?)

Cheers
95% of the people don't believe 100% they can win, that's why they lose
  • #416
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:31am Oct 30, 2013 1:31am
Hi all,

I agree with you Ronald123, we have an indi and some templates. Of course everyone have to work and study templates, but it will be more efficient to work on realtime charts, encouraging coordination (it's a forum) and seeing why a trade is taken, so one should start from there rather than trying to reinvent the wheel.

If i look at eurusd chart on one template i can see what to do, but if i change for another one , i will probably take another decision. Finally i'm lost!! Can i short it to win 47 pips (t103f) or should i wait?

As you say Ronald, a more understandable and clear way is needed because it seems to be promising

my 2 cents
  • #417
  • Oct 30, 2013 2:15am Oct 30, 2013 2:15am
Quoting plkdtm
Hi all, I agree with you Ronald123, we have an indi and some templates. Of course everyone have to work and study templates, but it will be more efficient to work on realtime charts, encouraging coordination (it's a forum) and seeing why a trade is taken, so one should start from there rather than trying to reinvent the wheel. If i look at eurusd chart on one template i can see what to do, but if i change for another one , i will probably take another decision. Finally i'm lost!! Can i short it to win 47 pips (t103f) or should i wait? As you say...
Hi plkdtm. I see the templates as similar to trends on differing TFs. Every indicator gives contrary signals depending which TF you are looking at. For example A short on the EU T5_103 may be a a pull back in the middle of a long signal on T4F.

So I think there are decisions that every trader will have to make.

1. Do I choose one template and trade every signal it genets.
2. Do I I choose one template and only trade that when it is in line with another template.
3. Do I trade all signals on all templates
etc

Eveyone will be different depending on risk appetite. What I have done is list down fore each pair on a spreadsheet what I think is happening on each template according to the rules. This gives me an overall picture. So depending on what the overall picture is I have an area I think price is going to go to. So if I think we are bullish on the EU to 1.40 I may use T4F as entries and exits to that target. While price is getting there and I may use T5_103 to trade counter-trend or I may use it to add to my long position.

Hope that helps

Steve
  • #418
  • Oct 30, 2013 2:59am Oct 30, 2013 2:59am
hi hollowhead,

how did you do your spreadsheet?
  • #419
  • Oct 30, 2013 4:06am Oct 30, 2013 4:06am
Hi

It's nothing complicated - here is a screen grab for GU. You can see that currently I am bullish targeting 1.64 with probable support at 1.585. It just helps me get an overall view, so I can develop a trade plan for the week. At the weekend I will go though it again, see if anything has changed... rinse and repeat.

Attached Image


PS - should have edited it last night - the T4F has completed a short phase from 61.8% to 23.6%
  • #420
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:51pm Oct 31, 2013 6:51pm
Hi Bobi, hope you can continue sharing T3 baseline as after 3 years is a really great guide to trade for every month. Of course now is much easier with annual templates. Thank you so much!

BTW, in agreement with T3 Im waiting price can see 1.3441 (next week at the most according my experience).

Regards!
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