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  • #301
  • Oct 25, 2013 3:21pm Oct 25, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
What a performance for AUDNZD.. nearly closing on weekly highs here. Anyone else in this trade besides PipTrapper and myself?
Mrs PipTrapper is in also
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #302
  • Oct 25, 2013 10:16pm Oct 25, 2013 10:16pm
COT reports are going to be released slowly back into the wild, so as not to shock their natural ecosystem. Another two weeks before they are back on schedule.
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6745-13
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #303
  • Oct 26, 2013 2:57am Oct 26, 2013 2:57am
Quoting numbnuts
COT reports are going to be released slowly back into the wild, so as not to shock their natural ecosystem. Another two weeks before they are back on schedule. http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6745-13
Just another form of data manipulation.
Anyway, it's very easy to calculate where the COT stands on risk correlated currencies. Large specs were net long in the 1st October report so they are even more net long now. If the specs get squeezed, the house of cards tumbles... ergo; the risk is to the downside.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #304
  • Edited 3:28am Oct 26, 2013 3:13am | Edited 3:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Mrs PipTrapper is in also
As in she gets your profits..? or does she have her own account?




AUDNZD near term.. I see some downside.

Would like to see the same type of correction we saw on Thursday, then we can get all excited again for 1.1650!

1 Hour (both)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd1hourzoomed.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd1hourcloseup.png Size: 126 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #305
  • Oct 26, 2013 3:56am Oct 26, 2013 3:56am
Why is MetaQuotes removing the "1 click buy"?

I wanted that feature for the longest time, then they release it but only for a few months. It makes scalping so much easier.

Apparently MetaQuotes is removing its Trade Terminal EA on Oct 30th.

Really ticks me off.. it's so frustrating to have to open the trade window to enter.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #306
  • Oct 26, 2013 4:15am Oct 26, 2013 4:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Just another form of data manipulation. Anyway, it's very easy to calculate where the COT stands on risk correlated currencies. Large specs were net long in the 1st October report so they are even more net long now. If the specs get squeezed, the house of cards tumbles... ergo; the risk is to the downside.
I only use it to judge when large specs may be exhausted one way or another, like an overbought or oversold indicator. It doesn't happen often that 90% or more of large specs hold the same position but when they do it is a very powerful indication that price wont move any further in that direction in the near future - if everyone who wants to go long is already long, who is left to buy?

And yeah its not that hard to judge where positioning is now. On October 1 euro positioning was looking almost overbought - the price action on 1D charts since then tells me it probably is now, so I wont buy euros this week.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #307
  • Oct 26, 2013 5:04am Oct 26, 2013 5:04am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
What a performance for AUDNZD.. nearly closing on weekly highs here. Anyone else in this trade besides PipTrapper and myself?
I am too
  • #308
  • Oct 26, 2013 6:06am Oct 26, 2013 6:06am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} I am too
Where do you think its headed before fading over 300 pips?

I think 1.1650 will be good for at most a 150 pip pull back. I can't see it going any more than down to 1.15 before it finds buyers.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #309
  • Edited 6:19pm Oct 27, 2013 6:07pm | Edited 6:19pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Where do you think its headed before fading over 300 pips? I think 1.1650 will be good for at most a 150 pip pull back. I can't see it going any more than down to 1.15 before it finds buyers.
Right now it looks to me like it's "To da moon Alice".
Attached Image

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #310
  • Oct 27, 2013 6:10pm Oct 27, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} As in she gets your profits..? or does she have her own account? AUDNZD near term.. I see some downside. Would like to see the same type of correction we saw on Thursday, then we can get all excited again for 1.1650! 1 Hour (both) {image} {image}
Sadly she gets half the profits, but happily she spends half of that on me , but reciprocally, I spend half my half on her, so yeah... It's 50/50.

By the way, I love my wife. No other person in the world could measure up to the love I receive from her. So, as far as I'm concerned, she can take all the profits.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #311
  • Oct 27, 2013 6:22pm Oct 27, 2013 6:22pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Where do you think its headed before fading over 300 pips? I think 1.1650 will be good for at most a 150 pip pull back. I can't see it going any more than down to 1.15 before it finds buyers.
It's tough to call I'm in it until 1.17-1.18 then I will probably close all positions and go into year end biding my time on shorting the SP500 & or E/U

But as for now I am trading the 4hr while keeping in mind daily resistance. My fibo levels have worked a treat for my 4HR trades and yes 1.1650 is at the top of my projections on the 4hr but i see it going higher to the daily 38.2% at 1.18xx I will probably close out of some positions at 1.1650 but ultimately I would like to make 10%+ on this trade and then have no real requirements to hold the risk of a sudden move down.

Trading this pair is largely based on the interest rate differential play and the RBA have become less dovish than they once were and as such I don't see any further rate cuts going forward. On the other side any plans by the RBNZ to aggressively tighten it's monetary policy would be disastrous for it's exports so I don't see that happening for a long time either.should these fundies remain the same I expect upside until a change in stance.
  • #312
  • Oct 27, 2013 6:28pm Oct 27, 2013 6:28pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} It's tough to call I'm in it until 1.17-1.18 then I will probably close all positions and go into year end biding my time on shorting the SP500 & or E/U But as for now I am trading the 4hr while keeping in mind daily resistance. My fibo levels have worked a treat for my 4HR trades and yes 1.1650 is at the top of my projections on the 4hr but i see it going higher to the daily 38.2% at 1.18xx I will probably close out of some positions at 1.1650 but ultimately I would like to make 10%+ on this trade and then have no real requirements to hold...
This should keep you confident in the trade >>> http://www.forexcrunch.com/nzdusd-outlook-oct-28-nov-1/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #313
  • Oct 27, 2013 6:34pm Oct 27, 2013 6:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} This should keep you confident in the trade >>> http://www.forexcrunch.com/nzdusd-outlook-oct-28-nov-1/
How much of an unchanged interest rate is already priced in do you think, if any?
  • #314
  • Oct 27, 2013 6:53pm Oct 27, 2013 6:53pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} It's tough to call I'm in it until 1.17-1.18 then I will probably close all positions and go into year end biding my time on shorting the SP500 & or E/U But as for now I am trading the 4hr while keeping in mind daily resistance. My fibo levels have worked a treat for my 4HR trades and yes 1.1650 is at the top of my projections on the 4hr but i see it going higher to the daily 38.2% at 1.18xx I will probably close out of some positions at 1.1650 but ultimately I would like to make 10%+ on this trade and then have no real requirements to hold...
Yeah the Interest rate differential is key, see chart with purple line (AU - NZ 2 year spread), next to that is market implied interest rate differentials in the future.

Currently near flat the market expects the RBNZ to outpace RBA by 0.7% in rate change by this time next year, this would push the purple line down by 0.7% from -0.4% to -1.1% implying a AUDNZD around parity.

Second chart just shows that the market doesn't expect any more rate cuts from the RBA in the next 6 months (shown by green histogram at the bottom, when green the mkt expects a rate cut)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD rates.png Size: 234 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: RBA rate change.png Size: 111 KB
  • #315
  • Oct 28, 2013 1:07am Oct 28, 2013 1:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote}By the way, I love my wife. No other person in the world could measure up to the love I receive from her. So, as far as I'm concerned, she can take all the profits.
Yeah my wife looks through my browser history too... ahh, I mean, I love my wife too. She's awesome.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #316
  • Oct 28, 2013 2:47am Oct 28, 2013 2:47am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} How much of an unchanged interest rate is already priced in do you think, if any?
The "anticipated rate hike" rally started around 7900
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #317
  • Oct 28, 2013 2:49am Oct 28, 2013 2:49am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} Yeah my wife looks through my browser history too... ahh, I mean, I love my wife too. She's awesome.
My wife doesn't know what "browser history" is
However, she is welcome to go through it any time
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #318
  • Oct 28, 2013 5:50am Oct 28, 2013 5:50am
I am extremely bearish USD this week, mainly from an intermarket perspective - equities and gold both appear strong, both technically and fundamentally - this is very USD negative. The US index is also trending lower strongly and has broken long term support. Recent data has been mixed and no fed members appear to be turning more hawkish. I like the event spread - retail sales, PPI, CPI, unemployment and PMI scattered regularly through the week. In the current fundamental environment I think negative figures there may cause further selloffs of USD, whereas positive figures won't necessarily cause big buys. All of my trades this week will involve USD shorts.

Euro is looking very strong on a return to yield seeking, as the major alternative to USD it gets a boost from every QE extension from the fed. I am uncertain of COT positioning though, the last data from October 1 showed positioning very long and it could be approaching overbought levels. Technically it is looking nice, if it pulls back toward its latest support at 1.3700 I will buy a small amount. I won't take any larger positions until COT data is up to date.

JPY is fundamentally bearish for similar reasons to USD but COT positioning is clearly oversold - 90% short at last release and no short covering has shown up in the price action since then so I assume there still isn't much big money available to push it lower.

AUD also appears very bullish but RBA boss Glenn Stevens scares me, he is determined that the aussie needs to be lower and has sounded more and more dovish with every speech. He stated recently during an RBA rate statement that they were holding rates steady because the aussie was falling by its own accord. Now it isn't, he might feel compelled to do something about it. The next RBA cashrate announcement is next week. Stevens speaks tomorrow, I will be listening carefully and if he doesn't sound any more dovish than last time I will place a buy order on a/u above support at 0.9525. I love Glenn Stevens' speeches by the way, he is by far the most entertaining central bank head.

I have already bought some GBP this morning, it is the strongest fundamentally right now. GDP growth continues marching on, UK bonds continue yielding higher than the others, the BOE keeps getting more and more hawkish with every statement and it looks almost certain to be the first major economy to taper QE measures. Despite most analysts calling it overbought, overstretched and overextended, COT data clearly shows there are still a lot of big speculators available to come in and push it higher. Given its seemingly unstoppable run built on economic growth, any negative data releases are unlikely to cause selloffs in the pound. Technically g/u is in the lower part of an ascending trend channel but there is resistance above at 1.6250 and 1.6300. If these resistance levels are broken I will be increasing the position rapidly on every dip.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu2810.png Size: 35 KB
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #319
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:34am Oct 28, 2013 6:34am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Yeah the Interest rate differential is key, see chart with purple line (AU - NZ 2 year spread), next to that is market implied interest rate differentials in the future. Currently near flat the market expects the RBNZ to outpace RBA by 0.7% in rate change by this time next year, this would push the purple line down by 0.7% from -0.4% to -1.1% implying a AUDNZD around parity. Second chart just shows that the market doesn't expect any more rate cuts from the RBA in the next 6 months (shown by green histogram at the bottom, when green the mkt...
Thats an awesome charting platform you have there. Cost you about 22k a year? I'm looking for one to compare fixed income spreads, equity indices VIX, chart inflation and GDP data etc., but I don't want to pay that much since I wont use most of the functions on it. Do you know of any cheaper alternatives?
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #320
  • Edited 7:06am Oct 28, 2013 6:39am | Edited 7:06am
Gold EW count update

Hi all,

As you know I've been focussing on Gold analysis and trades for a while. I've got Gold at the start of Intermediate wave 2 down (to 1310 area) and once complete - perhaps this week or next - we'll see the strange beginnings of an A wave to kick off wave 3 of 3 to the upside. Third waves are one of my favourite things but with an A wave start? er... better be careful, eh?

The following chart is outdated by now since the blue count expanding diagonal didn't unfold and the red count seems unlikely, so white count it is but revised to wave 1 of Primary wave 3 up.

edit: By the pattern unfolding the correction down is likely to be a zigzag, so mind the B wave coming back up.

http://ubuntuone.com/56OcKF8GzTPjmjvjsFsDXh
cryptocurrency everytime
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