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Sultans of Swing

  • #281
  • Oct 25, 2013 5:37am Oct 25, 2013 5:37am
I'm not sure if SPX500 is going to retrace after all - ATR is falling which is always bullish, it has broken an upper trendline which may now become support, and the fed isn't going to taper for at least a couple more months. This all points to continued investment in equities, and gold also seems to be holding its gains at least for now - this is all very bearish USD for the coming week. USD is also hovering below previous support which is now acting as resistance. I will be selling USD all next week, now I need to find a strong currency to buy against it.

I wont make any further decisions until I see the next COT report tomorrow, we have had no data for a month now.
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si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #282
  • Oct 25, 2013 5:40am Oct 25, 2013 5:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hmmm. No pullback yet. Oh well, I'm not complaining.
Should pull back from 4HR 78.6% fibo, which it's doing now, hopefully plays out the same as it has for other fibo levels
  • #283
  • Oct 25, 2013 5:50am Oct 25, 2013 5:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hmmm. No pullback yet. Oh well, I'm not complaining.
Its coming soon here, cashed out another 20% at 1.1562.. +220 pips from average entry. 70% of position on still.

Buying the 4 hour dips will be my key focus for November.


At this point 1.1650 seems guaranteed. 1.19 a possible target for year end.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #284
  • Oct 25, 2013 5:56am Oct 25, 2013 5:56am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Its coming soon here, cashed out another 20% at 1.1562.. +220 pips from average entry Buying the 4 hour dips will be my key focus for November.
A 4HR close above 1.1560 will pave the way for the recent high at 1.1650 where I would definitely be inclined to take some profits if we get a major pull back. But right now the NZD has quite a way to go and as our good friend Mr. Marley has said fundamentally this pair should be 1.20. Hopefully we test the major 38.2% level on the daily before any major pull back
  • #285
  • Oct 25, 2013 5:59am Oct 25, 2013 5:59am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} A 4HR close above 1.1560 will pave the way for the recent high at 1.1650 where I would definitely be inclined to take some profits if we get a major pull back. But right now the NZD has quite a way to go and as our good friend Mr. Marley has said fundamentally this pair should be 1.20. Hopefully we test the major 38.2% level on the daily before any major pull back
Agreed.

1.1580 was always my first target so I am just sticking to the plan.

Can't fuss about 18 pips.

I'd be a fool not to hold these positions for at least a few weeks if not months.

But profit locked is always nice. I'm usually pretty good at picking 4 hour swings.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #286
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:10am Oct 25, 2013 6:10am
Quoting numbnuts
I'm not sure if SPX500 is going to retrace after all - ATR is falling which is always bullish, it has broken an upper trendline which may now become support, and the fed isn't going to taper for at least a couple more months. This all points to continued investment in equities, and gold also seems to be holding its gains at least for now - this is all very bearish USD for the coming week. USD is also hovering below previous support which is now acting as resistance. I will be selling USD all next week, now I need to find a strong currency to buy...
i have a small short from 1745 but ideally 1780/1790 should be a strong short
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #287
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:14am Oct 25, 2013 6:14am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} A 4HR close above 1.1560 will pave the way for the recent high at 1.1650 where I would definitely be inclined to take some profits if we get a major pull back. But right now the NZD has quite a way to go and as our good friend Mr. Marley has said fundamentally this pair should be 1.20. Hopefully we test the major 38.2% level on the daily before any major pull back
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} i have a small short from 1745 but ideally 1780/1790 should be a strong short
So what do you figure? A pullback to 1520?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #288
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:15am Oct 25, 2013 6:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} So what do you figure? A pullback to 1520?
1482!
  • #289
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:18am Oct 25, 2013 6:18am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} 1482!
Sounds reasonable. Let's see where NY takes us.
If we close today with the hedgies still bashing USD, then I can see it happening.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #290
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:21am Oct 25, 2013 6:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} So what do you figure? A pullback to 1520?
1600 zone id be happy with sometime next year. could also happen before year is over.

heres the chart

https://www.tradingview.com/v/dWzN05W9/

a longer term break next i think would be low 1400s
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #291
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:25am Oct 25, 2013 6:25am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} 1600 zone id be happy with sometime next year. could also happen before year is over. heres the chart https://www.tradingview.com/v/dWzN05W9/ a longer term break next i think would be low 1400s
Haha. I was referring to a pullback in AUD/NZD to 1.1520

As for SPX, I call at top at 1770
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #292
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:43am Oct 25, 2013 7:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Haha. I was referring to a pullback in AUD/NZD to 1.1520 As for SPX, I call at top at 1770
Exactly my thoughts.

1.1535/1.1520 nice buy zone


I'm also looking at AUDJPY for a bullish reversal.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #293
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:49am Oct 25, 2013 7:49am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Exactly my thoughts. 1.1535/1.1520 nice buy zone I'm also looking at AUDJPY for a bullish reversal.
A/J. Hmm Interesting. That pair certainly removes the dollar and euro risk from the trade. But then so does A/N
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #294
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:58am Oct 25, 2013 7:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} A/J. Hmm Interesting. That pair certainly removes the dollar and euro risk from the trade. But then so does A/N
Indeed yes. I like that pair a lot. Lots of volatility and carry.

This could even see a bearish daily close (aud/nzd), before bullish continuation next week.

But not likely. If we get near the daily open it will probably see buyers.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #295
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:59am Oct 25, 2013 7:59am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Indeed yes. I like that pair a lot. Lots of volatility and carry. This could even see a bearish daily close (aud/nzd), before bullish continuation next week. But not likely. If we get near the daily open it will probably see buyers.

That would be perfect to add a fresh long. I love pullbacks
If not, there will be others. Starting to look a bit stretched if it continues without correction.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #296
  • Oct 25, 2013 8:04am Oct 25, 2013 8:04am
AUDJPY lifting off.

Daily open near, should limit the advance.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #297
  • Oct 25, 2013 8:09am Oct 25, 2013 8:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That would be perfect to add a fresh long. I love pullbacks If not, there will be others. Starting to look a bit stretched if it continues without correction.
Yes, I think a bearish close would be a great opportunity to add.

Then new highs into 1.1650 will create a daily divergence.

Which we can take profit and look to buy the dip.

Looking forward to November.


I'm having my best week of the year thanks to AUDNZD and EURAUD longs.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #298
  • Oct 25, 2013 8:20am Oct 25, 2013 8:20am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Yes, I think a bearish close would be a great opportunity to add. Then new highs into 1.1650 will create a daily divergence. Which we can take profit and look to buy the dip. Looking forward to November. I'm having my best week of the year thanks to AUDNZD and EURAUD longs.
Posted 21st October...

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I want to see at least 1.1650 to make me happy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #299
  • Oct 25, 2013 9:59am Oct 25, 2013 9:59am
Okay folks. I'm off to enjoy the weekend. I've seen enough bloodshed in risk assets for a day.

Have a great weekend all.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #300
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:36pm Oct 25, 2013 2:36pm
What a performance for AUDNZD.. nearly closing on weekly highs here.

Anyone else in this trade besides PipTrapper and myself?
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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