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  • #847,381
  • Oct 27, 2013 9:36am Oct 27, 2013 9:36am
Daily is Long ......
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Click to Enlarge Name: 10_27_13 EU daily.JPG Size: 248 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #847,382
  • Oct 27, 2013 9:37am Oct 27, 2013 9:37am
H4 is topping and this is where you need to watch the waves of the H4 , for the confirmation of the continuation of the 3 larger TF's.............
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #847,383
  • Oct 27, 2013 9:42am Oct 27, 2013 9:42am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Free money from main account either $1K or $100K or more is different story and the definition is very subjective. A $100 could mean a lot to me but $10K could be just cost of spread for a single trade to someone else.

I finished reading both Market wizards books and one thing all great traders had ability to go big.I mean they had risk control but went in lot more then 1-2% commonly assumed.
Bruce Kovner 4.3Billion net
At the age of 31 he obtained $3,000 from credit cards and turned that into $40,000 trading soybeans
Was that trade over 2% risk? Lol more like 100% risk.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #847,384
  • Oct 27, 2013 9:42am Oct 27, 2013 9:42am
Quoting timotei
{quote} Good analogy. I also see currency pairs in such terms. They continue in a direction (trend) until an external force ( fundamental events) acts upon them thus creating new direction (trend reversal)
I thought fundamental continue to moves in a direction[trend] until external force[price action] act upon them thus creating new fundamentals
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #847,385
  • Oct 27, 2013 9:44am Oct 27, 2013 9:44am
Quoting JeremyWS
I should add, based on this the EZ CPI reading later this week will be very important, under 1% and you can almost guarantee further easing from the ECB {image}
Its a good idea and i'm sure will be included over next ECB meeting speculation. However, i miss the logic in it! Was this appreciation due to a deflated currency or increased confidence in the EU union or is it that Europe just reported positive GDP numbers with consumers mind set is in the recession period. I understand that inflation number is a top one priory in ECB's Dragni 's strategy ( near but below 2% ) But the main cause of it has nothing to do with currency appreciation. ( IMHO of course)

Few days ago , ECB reported the full payment of the last LTRO , thus reducing its balance sheet of about one billion euros. The Feds on the other hand keep pilling in 65 Billion per month. ( Clear case of currency depreciation ) At the same time, most of food commodities are trading near monthly average if not lower. Energy are also retreating, expect of Crude with Syrian war bubble. Most importantly, Euro area is witnessing an in flow of investment as an emerging markets and investors seeking growth chances. As ridiculous as it sound, the great Bear of Wall street - Paulson just bought two big Banks in Greece. ( Paulson ,as you may know was one of the people who had a heavily bet on an EU disintegration ) The same story with UK as their numbers much better and started earlier.

So, money is coming back into the system and europe Stox is at yearly high ... Why to ease further? Its already happening.

His second choice would be another LTRO. Its a possibilty ! But i find it abit hard for two reasons, the first LTRO money never made it into the system. Banks took the money, parked it at ECB and then returned it back. If growth was to be promoted, banks need to take the money and lend it to borrowers. However, as bank may have seen fit - its not the time for it. The second reason, is the political side of LTRO as a back door government financing though issued governmental bonds as collateral. ( But i'm not well informed on the second reason)

Thus, if Dragni and the ECB's economists & governors was to view the exchange rate as a problem. Then, they have to deal with it separately and far away from LTROS and interest rate cut. I personally think a good case for talking down the Euro, could be made. While chances for growth are best represented by foreign investors putting their money in Euro area, cheaper dollars may discourage this trend to continue ( As More dollars will be needed to buy less Euros) So, if Euro exchange was to fall down 5 % more money will be naturally injected in the financial system and naturally inflate investment. Concluding with matching deflated food prices!

But who knows what super Mario will do ?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #847,386
  • Oct 27, 2013 9:55am Oct 27, 2013 9:55am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I was thinking about high leverage from different angle. When one goes to casino he/she has a budget saying I will risk 200, 500 which is average and once blown I am done. What lot of guys do which I like take that concept say 200 dollars and leverage it 300.1 or higher and risk in perfect set ups and dramatically increase the equity or go bust trying.If busted then no big deal but if not one can take that 200 to 10k Forexsaint done this many times.He is actively doing it now as well. So just wanted to share this because everyone keeps disrespecting...
You made a great point on your statement, and if you allow me to add something else.

I would have to say, there are a lot of opportunities in the market, but the majority
of us won't have a profitable account.....because we are more focus on major gains instead
of managing our losses.....

Remember, we lose money because we make mistakes, and if we can manage those mistakes,
our gain will be a result of our disciplined and our loss management...

This is a little bit controversial, but our problems in general (including me) are more psychological
then anything else.....

Kind Regards!
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #847,387
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:03am Oct 27, 2013 10:03am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I finished reading both Market wizards books and one thing all great traders had ability to go big.I mean they had risk control but went in lot more then 1-2% commonly assumed. Bruce Kovner 4.3Billion net At the age of 31

he obtained $3,000 from credit cards and turned that into $40,000 trading soybeans Was that trade over 2% risk? Lol more like 100% risk.

Regards
Not necessarily if you know how soybeans movement and crop seasons. Traded 3 or 4 times. Got cold feet can gain huge also high risk.

Quote
Bruce Kovner 4.3Billion net At the age of 31

The larger the capital in a single account the less likely to go high leverage for a very simple reason. Anything above $1 mil good responsible broker will let you have no more than 1:10 account leverage. Also for a very simple reason, it's within their risk. It's not easy to take $50 mil market money in a single trade and the broker will make you whole with high leverage. I am not talking about OTC.

Don't believe what they say with their experience from demo account. Everything is possible with fake money issued by BoH.
  • #847,388
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:05am Oct 27, 2013 10:05am
Quoting forexalien
H4 is topping and this is where you need to watch the waves of the H4 , for the confirmation of the continuation of the 3 larger TF's............. {image}
Cloudy with a chance of rain?
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #847,389
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:05am Oct 27, 2013 10:05am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Its a good idea and i'm sure will be included over next ECB meeting speculation. However, i miss the logic in it! Was this appreciation due to a deflated currency or increased confidence in the EU union or is it that Europe just reported positive GDP numbers with consumers mind set is in the recession period. I understand that inflation number is a top one priory in ECB's Dragni 's strategy ( near but below 2% ) But the main cause of it has nothing to do with currency appreciation. ( IMHO of course) Few days ago , ECB reported the full payment...

fair enough I suppose, but the EZ macro picture isn't that rosy, the Citigroup economic surprise index has been dropping fast and is now nearly in negative territory, and even though CPI is only about 1% its direction is of concern. And while I don't think they will directly target the exchange rate, the EUR may be hit because of the measures they employ. The EZ can't risk deflation and even disinflation with its fragile periphery and as such non-LTRO easing is definitely possible (and forward guidance).

You make the point that LTRO only bolstered Bank balance sheets and I think that this is hard to disagree with and as such the ECB may target stimulus with rate cuts and forward guidance etc.

Either way, the EUR is not overvalued by any measure, but the ECB sure as hell don't want it up by 1.40 for long and will most certainly talk it lower just to protect exports etc..

From what I can tell, most of the EUR strength can only be attributed to cross currency basis swap trades, which tightening to about 10bps on the 1Y duration is a good thing for EZ growth prospects. It seems a little tight and it may widen if the CESI EUR goes negative this week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EZ CPI.png Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CESI EUR.png Size: 84 KB
  • #847,390
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:06am Oct 27, 2013 10:06am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I finished reading both Market wizards books and one thing all great traders had ability to go big.I mean they had risk control but went in lot more then 1-2% commonly assumed. Bruce Kovner 4.3Billion net At the age of 31 he obtained $3,000 from credit cards and turned that into $40,000 trading soybeans Was that trade over 2% risk? Lol more like 100% risk. Regards
No one ever got rich being a pussy.

If you wanna make it to the big time, you need to lay on some serious risk. When your winning, bet more.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #847,391
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:11am Oct 27, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} No one ever got rich being a pussy. If you wanna make it to the big time, you need to lay on some serious risk. When your winning, bet more.

So eloquently put
  • #847,392
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:13am Oct 27, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} No one ever got rich being a pussy. If you wanna make it to the big time, you need to lay on some serious risk. When your winning, bet more.

agree100%
Jesse Livermore did it 4times. Kept adding to winners.Yes at some point you must get out of your comfort zone and interestingly enough best trades are never comfortable.

Lets put this in indicator obsessed perspective.

Trade goes south at 38 to 3750
Monthly UP weekly UP
All the lights and bells still show green UP
Price goes 3650
Monthly UP Weekly UP
Not shorting yet.
Price goes 36 and finally after 200pip drop and numerous "confirmations" he goes short and only to be stopped out and price rebounds back to 1.3720
To me that is pussy trading.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #847,393
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:21am Oct 27, 2013 10:21am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} No one ever got rich being a pussy. If you wanna make it to the big time, you need to lay on some serious risk. When your winning, bet more.

It reminds me "Floored - into the pit" and scene with Greg Riba:

"And I swear to God that 99% still don't get it, when you win you start betting less. Bet more. I mean, if there's one role that you can make a 100 000 dollars off, let it ride. If you roll three sixes in a row, let it ride. Let the winners ride."
  • #847,394
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:33am Oct 27, 2013 10:33am
Quoting JeremyWS
From what I can tell, most of the EUR strength can only be attributed to cross currency basis swap trades, which tightening to about 10bps on the 1Y duration is a good thing for EZ growth prospects. It seems a little tight and it may widen if the CESI EUR goes negative this week.
I'm not well informed in that specific area ... But, for now, i'm waiting for the next meeting and to hear what they gonna say!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #847,395
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:40am Oct 27, 2013 10:40am
exciting week ahead of us.. will we have a big move and reach 1.4?
Will it finally short it down

One things for sure, money will be made for the gutsy ones
  • #847,396
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:49am Oct 27, 2013 10:49am
Quoting ffleo
big rhythm
Ok, ok, by now most of us know ......

Attached Image
  • #847,397
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:56am Oct 27, 2013 10:56am
EUR pretty much unchanged on the first few quotes, 1.3800/02
  • #847,398
  • Edited 11:43am Oct 27, 2013 10:59am | Edited 11:43am
Hi all! Thinking that sharing is carrying I decided to show you my view on the gold & e/u. Usually, I wait for the trendlines to be hit/touched/pierced in order to have the smallest sl possible. The blue zone means buy and the read zone, obviously, sell.

For the E/U: I'm hopping that my broker will give me an opening price within the red zone. If that will be the case, shorting will be my play. The sl will go above the red line and the tp somewhere along 1.38. Otherwise, a good night sleep

For the gold: same algorithm. But here I might consider a small long at the start, targeting the red zone, and with a larger sl, around the 38.2 fib.

Both charts are m30.
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  • #847,399
  • Edited 11:10am Oct 27, 2013 10:59am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting Davit
{quote} To me fundamentally both Sterling and Euro are way above what their true worth is.In simple terms hyper bought. Overvalued. worth reading Euro-Area Services, Manufacturing Unexpectedly Slow “The dip in the PMI will remind policymakers that a sustainable upturn is by no means assured, and adds confirmation to the ECB’s view that the recovery is slow, uneven and fragile\" Add to this mix high Euro and any hope of German manufacturing...
I'm thinking much more higher, though in waves.

For now, toppish might be around 1.3964, then down to around 1.3730 ish, after which another push to 1.4070.

From there its only higher, -----> 1.4763 -------> 1.5202 -------> finally 1.5890........after there will be a big major drop of ~2000 pips

See you when you get there

Inserted Video
  • #847,400
  • Oct 27, 2013 11:13am Oct 27, 2013 11:13am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Ok, ok, by now most of us know ...... {image}

Nice!
rat
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