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  • #847,321
  • Oct 26, 2013 7:31am Oct 26, 2013 7:31am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} That was a mistake. Its going to be 117 and a half pip gap down this week.
From where do you get such gap? I just checked on xe and it s 1.3803
  • #847,322
  • Oct 26, 2013 8:00am Oct 26, 2013 8:00am
Quoting Chicky
A good answer will be highly appreciated Question 1: Why we tend to go short when price goes up? Question 2: Why we feel hungry after drinking?
Answer 1
It is our culture to fight the price change. It is like college students fighting against tuition increase and home owners cancelling home policies after price hike.
Retail traders tends to fade the trend because they want to catch a top or bottom to make a killing. There is nothing wrong becasue money can be made by selling the top and buying the bottom.
  • #847,323
  • Oct 26, 2013 8:30am Oct 26, 2013 8:30am
Quoting Chicky
A good answer will be highly appreciated Question 1: Why we tend to go short when price goes up?

Newton's laws of motion are three physical laws that together laid the foundation for classical mechanics. They describe the relationship between a body and the forces acting upon it, and its motion in response to said forces. They have been expressed in several different ways over nearly three centuries,[1] and can be summarized as follows:

  1. First law: When viewed in an inertial reference frame, an object either is at rest or moves at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by an external force.
  2. Second law: The acceleration of a body is directly proportional to, and in the same direction as, the net force acting on the body, and inversely proportional to its mass. Thus, F = ma, where F is the net force acting on the object, m is the mass of the object and a is the acceleration of the object.
  3. Third law: When one body exerts a force on a second body, the second body simultaneously exerts a force equal in magnitude and opposite in direction to that of the first body.

To me it explains why clearly.Everything in universe is influenced by physics including our behavior.In simple terms high price contains energy within that must dissipate eventually specially in an environment that price has done exactly that repeatedly in the past.

In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #847,324
  • Oct 26, 2013 9:48am Oct 26, 2013 9:48am
why everybody thinks 1.38 is so high for euro?
it was at 1.50-58 few years ago..
isn't it even a bullish triangle (monthly)?
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failure is not an option.
  • #847,325
  • Oct 26, 2013 9:53am Oct 26, 2013 9:53am
Just love this conversation and think Davit hit the nail on the head. Am going to try to expand though my english is very bad for such a topic. We could say its not matter, but energy transfers which are creating universe. Matter is just a short term stance of energetic pulse, and as universe is expanding and is going to contract in future, so do all tiny parts of it.

Yep sure, macro and stuff, but this is fun . To base the idea on normal level, right now exporters is Europe are kinda loosing, thanks to this action. You thinks they are going to make reaction? And is it a good idea to short universe?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #847,326
  • Oct 26, 2013 9:54am Oct 26, 2013 9:54am
EUR has been showing some weak data recently.. and this week was very weak..
But the thing is USD keeps showing even weaker data.. for this reason its keeping bullish..

2 Good (RED)news in a row for USD.. will start the short road down to 1.3000..
  • #847,327
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:08am Oct 26, 2013 10:08am
Quoting Chicky
A good answer will be highly appreciated Question 1: Why we tend to go short when price goes up? Question 2: Why we feel hungry after drinking?
Question 1: R: Because we tend to go long when price goes down ...we are never satisfied...
Question 2: R: then drank to be happy ... but still get angry...
  • #847,328
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:10am Oct 26, 2013 10:10am
Quoting rudimente;7051866[highlight=#ff8c00
]why everybody thinks 1.38 is so high for euro[/highlight]? it was at 1.50-58 few years ago.. isn't it even a bullish triangle (monthly)?{image}
Saying something like that without fundamentals purely looking at past history says nothing. What happened in 2011 2010 2008 is unique.
Just because price was 1.50 in 2011 means nothing now.
Lets put this in context.

1.Euro zone is still in recession
2. German/French manufacturing down
3.High unemployment 12% and some Euro countries like Spain as high as 27%
4.Economy needs cheaper currency to boost exports specially for Germany which basically holds everything together for Euro Zone

Worth reading
The euro crisis Debtors’ prison
Is 1.38 too high? Yes to me.Euro should be around 1.28-30 and it will get there.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #847,329
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:10am Oct 26, 2013 10:10am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
And is it a good idea to short universe? T

I fear, you won't reach your target.
  • #847,330
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:14am Oct 26, 2013 10:14am
Question 1: Nobody knows why!..it is our weird and wild human nature I suppose
Question 2: That I know.. Because our stomach suffers from alcohol and needs something to get in in order to absorb it..
George
  • #847,331
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:17am Oct 26, 2013 10:17am
Quoting chess king
{quote} Question 1: R: Because we tend to go long when price goes down ...we are never satisfied... Question 2: R: then drank to be happy ... but still get angry...
That's contrarians' drama. Otherwise "trend is your friend" only if one suffers for some kind of sociofobia.
  • #847,332
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:19am Oct 26, 2013 10:19am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Newton's laws of motion are three physical laws that together laid the foundation for classical mechanics. They describe the relationship between a body and th.
newtons laws work well with linear system but they fail with non linear system.in non linear system effect will be much more ormuch less than the impulse hence Newtonian laws doesn't work.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #847,333
  • Edited 11:47am Oct 26, 2013 10:26am | Edited 11:47am
Quoting Davit
What happened in 2011 2010 2008 is unique.
It is still unique. Its like, the only reason for beeing up here is US overinflated stock market. We could go all way back to 2007 housing crash and since then, it is still the same. Banks all across the world have balance sheets full of toxic assets priced pre crisis. CBs are doing all in their power to clear these toxic assets. FED and BOJ are simply buying both housing sector and government bonds and ECB lowers collateral requirements, makes swap deals with the rest of CBs and then shoots some LTRO. All of this is still a result from 2007 and those balance sheets are still not cleared, as in the meanwhile, we got into recession in whole southern Europe, so the balance sheets got hit once again. In effect, we need more cash, much more, so I dont expect this printing trend to vanish anywhere nearby. Till it lasts, US banks are going to be receiving huge amount of cash, and USD will be weakening. As I ve said several times, this is creating enormous pressure on European exporters and think EU should react. After their reaction, we are about to get correction on E/U, if there is an insider as usuall, move can ofc start sooner. Imo PBOC swaps with ECB like two weeks ago were the first sign and now we are waiting for several options a) european commission is going to give a go to bank lending out of ESM b) ECB is going to launch new round of LTRO c) we are going to get real negative interest rates.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #847,334
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:29am Oct 26, 2013 10:29am
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} newtons laws work well with linear system but they fail with non linear system.in non linear system effect will be much more than the impulse hence Newtonian laws doesn't work.regards

You are partially correct that none linear does not work but that's true in smaller time frame.Once you zoom out and look at the chart on weekly and monthly then it becomes obvious that every action has equal reaction applies.If it didn't then we could have endless highs and endless lows.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #847,335
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:32am Oct 26, 2013 10:32am
Quoting WhiteHorse
{quote} seems you are a blessed soul isnt it? jazakallah
words not going to make a person,whether he is blessed or not.Its only righteous actions and being just that will make a person blessed.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #847,336
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:38am Oct 26, 2013 10:38am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} It is still unique. Its like, the only reason for beeing up here is US overinflated stock market. We could go all way back to 2007 housing crash and since then, it is still the same. Banks all across the world have balance sheets full of toxic assets priced pre crisis. CBs are doing all in their power to clear these toxic assets. FED and BOJ are simply buying both housing sector and government bonds and ECB lowers collateral requirements, makes swap deals with the rest of CBs and then shoots some LTRO. All of this is still a result from...

Really enjoyed your post.You should post more on fundemetals which is horribly missing from this thread.Vast majority here looks only on charts and draw shapes without context.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #847,337
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:41am Oct 26, 2013 10:41am
Quoting aristotel
{quote} That's contrarians' drama. Otherwise \"trend is your friend\" only if one suffers for some kind of sociofobia.
yes...
But since there are no guarantees and we cannot clearly see future outcomes, there is always an unsettling feeling in our gut. We want to win, but even more we want not to lose...
  • #847,338
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:47am Oct 26, 2013 10:47am
Tnx David, glad you liked that. I liked that physics as wel, see, I subscribed . Anyway, I will a) post more often, as I had just quit my second job b) make an attempt not to spam, as am quite chatty sometimes .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #847,339
  • Edited 11:57am Oct 26, 2013 10:52am | Edited 11:57am
Quoting Davit
{quote} You are partially correct that none linear does not work but that's true in smaller time frame.Once you zoom out and look at the chart on weekly and monthly then it becomes obvious that every action has equal reaction applies.If it didn't then we could have endless highs and endless lows. Regards
u take anytime frame ,market moves in the same way ie up ,down,sideway.whether its short time frame or long time frame structure is the same.its only in magnitude and time they differ.so non linearty of system is nothing to do with time frame and more to do with the structure of the markets.
with longer time frame u don't see non linearty becos of the time it take for it to reveal.for example if u look at earth it looks flat but basically its curve or take lehaman,AIG,merryl lynch,,these r long time frame player but look at them what happen to them.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #847,340
  • Oct 26, 2013 10:52am Oct 26, 2013 10:52am
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