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Trading Made Simple

  • #26,901
  • Oct 25, 2013 4:50am Oct 25, 2013 4:50am
This morning market gave me a realtime lesson in something I new since beginning of trading, but sometimes you think you even know it better...
And so the market strikes back and told me two messages:
- "The trend is your friend - don't forget that. "
- "Follow your rules"

I tried to jump on various opportunities - in direction of the trend and direction of a predicted retracement. And I tried to predict upcomming TDI crossings. Not the best idea, but the results are not so bad, but with more concentration the performance could have been even better

Summarized my goodies and baddies - I got

  1. eurchf
    - short because of a predicted TDI downcross on H4 while I interpret H1 is in a retracement (already multiple hours red): -17 pips (I use samller position size on trades against the trend) closed by stop (didn't follow the rules)
    - unfortunately I missed the even better and TMS-like upmove now
  2. usdcad
    - short because of doji-ha-candle and TDI downcross on H4 while I interpret H1 is in a retracement (already multiple hours red): -13 pips (half pos. size) closed manually on the next candle
    - turning into a more likely long on usdcad on H1 TDI cross upwards: +13 pips on upcomming R1 (pivot) for 1/2 of pos., other 1/2 still on
  3. nzdusd
    - long due to TDI cross upwards (predicting a retracement) while H4 and trend is on the downside: -8 pips (half pos. size), closed on flattening TDI and next H1-candle was red
    - I do not open a trade in the other direction because of near S1-level and further on redicting a retracement upwards
  4. euraud - long in trend direction on TDI H1 cross upwards: +39 pips, closed 1/2 on R1 and resistance, other 1/2 closed +28 pips by tight stop
  5. aususd - still short from yesterday with only 1/4 position size - currently +35 pips (so no more than yesterday)
  6. usdchf - long on countertrend (rejected from monthly S1) or perhaps attempt for a reversal: +16 pips on 1/2 position because I must leave now computer for some time, other 1/2 position still running on tight stop

Lessons learned: Having a better focus on good opportunities (more quality) than against on many (quantity) and stay on the rules my morning summary would have been even better...

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-25 11.30 GMT+2 EURAUD.png Size: 228 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-25 11.30 GMT+2 USDCAD.png Size: 222 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-25 11.30 GMT+2 AUDUSD.png Size: 220 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-25 11.30 GMT+2 NZDUSD.png Size: 211 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-25 11.30 GMT+2 USDCHF.png Size: 236 KB
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #26,902
  • Oct 25, 2013 4:52am Oct 25, 2013 4:52am
pls ny one trading this now i need your professional analysis not in yet just watching if it will break 08950 RN tdi up and
the green RSI line has cross the yellow please advice
thanks in advance
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  • #26,903
  • Edited 10:32am Oct 25, 2013 5:04am | Edited 10:32am
Quoting gulayetty
pls ny one trading this now i need your professional analysis not in yet just watching if it will break 08950 RN tdi up and the green RSI line has cross the yellow please advice thanks in advance {image}

Look at my last chart. Could be a reversal, but nobody knows.
Trend is clearly short, but we have a bounce from monthly S1 pivot
65% trades are long usdchf on ff
70% traders are long usdchf on oanda
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #26,904
  • Oct 25, 2013 5:27am Oct 25, 2013 5:27am
Due to AB=CD completion right at previous Daily/Weekly support im building longs on USDCHF per TMS rules (divergence, TDI cross ect).
EDIT: same goes for USDJPY


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  • #26,905
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:32am Oct 25, 2013 6:32am
Hello everyone, i took this trade with USD/CAD last night at the London open. I started by looking at the weekly TF, which showed a bullish engulfing bar, and the guppy's were in an uptrend, then i switched to the daily TF and noticed strong momentum that had broken previous resistance, then i drilled down to the 1H TF and noticed that the guppy's were in an uptrend and i waited for price to show momentum. It started to show momentum at the open of London, so i waited for the second blue candle to open as well as a cross of the TDI to confirm and i entered. My first trade was with a fixed TP set to 1.04500 round number and my second trade had a trailing stop (i just wanted to try something out). My first trade hit TP and my second moved up as well and was taken out by the trailing stop. first trade netted me 21 pips and my second trade netted me 16 pips. Any thoughts?

http://imageshack.com/a/img443/6166/7wg3.pngUploaded with ImageShack.com

http://imageshack.com/a/img850/9975/ykt7.pngUploaded with ImageShack.com

http://imageshack.com/a/img20/6076/ocs4.pngUploaded with ImageShack.com
  • #26,906
  • Edited 8:00am Oct 25, 2013 7:21am | Edited 8:00am
Hello folks, as a green trader I've noticed something on the charts which is probably known to more experienced traders, so I would just ask for your insight. By the way, maybe this has already been said here, but remember I'm still reading through the thread and your pdf's as fast as humanly possible and haven't got to that point, so apologies if you're repeating this.

Looking at the TDI, every time the green line makes a clear cross over (or bounces off) the red AND yellow which both lie very close to each other (on both H1 and H4), there's a strong move (as in at least 20 pips). Like this latest example of USD/CHF - on the hourly the green cuts through, the H4 as well, and on the daily the green hooks over and prepares to maybe do the same thing in the near future. All the images are minutes after opening of the latest H4 candle ( the TDI on daily was flat before it hooked over sharply). I'm thinking if you catch the cross early on the hourly it can become a H4 trade. I'm going to back test this more but curious on your opinions.

On a sidenote, for my personality I think it would be best to trade the H4 and just use H1 to time a good momentum for an early entry.

Edit - Curious also about your price pattern interpretation, myself I'm still struggling with it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-h4-oanda-division4.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-d1-oanda-division4.png Size: 62 KB
  • #26,907
  • Oct 25, 2013 8:08am Oct 25, 2013 8:08am
Good morning,

Here is a update to the gbp/usd from last night.

Look's like price made a run and hit the s/r levels.
The s/r levels held and the long term guppy's held.
Now were trapped between the s/r levels & guppy's.
Something will have to give in the future... keep your
eyes on this...

sj
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmh4.png Size: 86 KB
  • #26,908
  • Oct 25, 2013 8:32am Oct 25, 2013 8:32am
Agk007 & Lane,

It's Friday morning, the N/Y session is up & running.

Both of those were excellent trades!

I often pyramid trades. Which means that you
enter and watch the trade, for example on the 1 hour
and then it turns into a 4 hour trade that you monitor
on the 4 hour chart. This is a pretty profitable strategy.

You just learned another secret to trading that you can
put in your tool box.

Have a great weekend everyone...

sj
  • #26,909
  • Oct 25, 2013 8:47am Oct 25, 2013 8:47am
FxFox,

I like how your charts look! This gives you a lot of info.

Your rules:
1). The trend is your friend, don't ever forget that.
2). Follow your rules and don't break them.

I think that is excellent advice for everyone!

Their is only 1 way to learn forex on demo.
As you practice, notice different things, and
get your rules locked in. You must develop discipline.

I think your doing great. Onward & upward.

sj
  • #26,910
  • Oct 25, 2013 11:02am Oct 25, 2013 11:02am
Quoting fxFox.mb
This morning market gave me a realtime lesson in something I new since beginning of trading, but sometimes you think you even know it better... And so the market strikes back and told me two messages: - \"The trend is your friend - don't forget that. \" - \"Follow your rules\" I tried to jump on various opportunities - in direction of the trend and direction of a predicted retracement. And I tried to predict upcomming TDI crossings. Not the best idea, but the results are not so bad, but with more concentration the performance could have been even...
Dear fxFox.mb,

what is this 1/2 position mean, Are you enter two trade same time and close 1 trade of that two trade and balance trade let to run ? Am I right?
Pls advise...

Also note I'm also trade today using guppy's with TDI & result and used currency pairs are almost same as yours.

Sorry for my poor English!

Thanks,
Helanka
Helanka
  • #26,911
  • Oct 25, 2013 12:57pm Oct 25, 2013 12:57pm
For the first time in my trading career I put together two positive weeks. this one I finished 4 pips down. But I am still up about 230 pips on the month. hopefully this will continue. Trading TMS at the very basic level and it is starting to work for me. ps. I have only been trading since april of this year.
  • #26,912
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:27pm Oct 25, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting verouchi
For the first time in my trading career I put together two positive weeks. this one I finished 4 pips down. But I am still up about 230 pips on the month. hopefully this will continue. Trading TMS at the very basic level and it is starting to work for me. ps. I have only been trading since april of this year.
What TF & session do you usually trade? I find the NY session tough but I need my beauty sleep so I don't trade the London. I have tended to trade much like Phx but not the early hours such as he does - limited success but two small weekly gains and I wish I had your monthly pip total. Keep up the good work, p.
  • #26,913
  • Oct 25, 2013 4:40pm Oct 25, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting Helanka
{quote} Dear fxFox.mb, what is this 1/2 position mean, Are you enter two trade same time and close 1 trade of that two trade and balance trade let to run ? Am I right? Pls advise... Also note I'm also trade today using guppy's with TDI & result and used currency pairs are almost same as yours. Sorry for my poor English! Thanks, Helanka
@Helanka

My Broker is FXCM. There you are very flexible in choosing your lot sizes and you can trade parts of lots. I think that is possible at most fx brokers.

About smaller position size or half of the position size I mean that I enter i.e. a countertrend trade with a smaller lot size and so with less risk for my account. The size depends on my account size and the chance/risk ratio for the trade. That is part of my trade and risk management.
Additionally belonging on the trade opportunity and the concrete trade goal I scale out (close a part of the position and move the stop most times to break even) on oncoming resistance levels i.e. on pivots points/resistane/suppo levels, former highs and lows...

Have a nice weekend and a good market conditions for all next week
fxfox
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #26,914
  • Oct 25, 2013 4:51pm Oct 25, 2013 4:51pm
@snarlyjack
Thanks for the flowers , but I only put different things from others together, fitting to me to get a good view on the market.
fxFox
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #26,915
  • Oct 26, 2013 1:20am Oct 26, 2013 1:20am
Quoting Lane
Hello folks, Looking at the TDI, every time the green line makes a clear cross over (or bounces off) the red AND yellow which both lie very close to each other (on both H1 and H4), there's a strong move (as in at least 20 pips). {image} {image} {image}
Hello Lane,
Exactly.
I suggest a short-cut to a focus on the interesting H1 tdi action: Look at Phx62's trades, note the PA and the position of the green relative to the yellow (you'll see the observation you've made - there are more) and form some simple conclusions.
Welcome to the thread.
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #26,916
  • Edited 5:23pm Oct 26, 2013 11:42am | Edited 5:23pm
Hi, SnarlyJack. Are you having a good weekend?
I have a small question about your Bollinger Bands setting 50/2. It seems you had been using 20/2 till a year ago. If you don't mind can you tell us the story why you changed the setup? Just curious.....
Thanks.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #26,917
  • Oct 26, 2013 2:40pm Oct 26, 2013 2:40pm
Hey SJ, thanks for the above Guppy video links. Saw some time ago but always good to see again & again to reinforce the correct usage of guppys. Easy to sometimes stray and pick up bad habits.

Regards,
Cigarguy
Keep It Simple
  • #26,918
  • Oct 26, 2013 5:36pm Oct 26, 2013 5:36pm
Thank you for watching the guppy video's.

This next video is a excellent video on Bollinger Bands.
I hope you enjoy it, and it answers your questions!
sj

Inserted Video
  • #26,919
  • Oct 27, 2013 1:57am Oct 27, 2013 1:57am
USDJPY: aside from being at the bottom of daily triangle, here are some more reasons to buy this piece:

H4 chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,920
  • Oct 27, 2013 5:31am Oct 27, 2013 5:31am
Hi lads. im looking for a exel table for money managment with all symbols pair, time, sl, profit, atc . thanks
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