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  • #846,381
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:21pm Oct 23, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} premature, imo.
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Sir, You sound like my wife..
well sometimes the opposite complaint is made to me. something is just stiff for too long.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #846,382
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:23pm Oct 23, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting Vachus
I took short 1.37880 ... SL 20 pips above it ! If i don't get the close tonight under 1.37750 i'm bailing out on it. It looks like a stop lose hunt ... I honestly don't under EURUSD anymore, commodities are frozen & the euro is sold to the ground against most of its crosses except EURAUD today. Even the 2 , 5 & 10 treasuries notes are stand still ... but the Euro is appreciating ! Thus, two conclusions : Either its a stop lose hunt, or someone in the markets knows something we don't !
I'm not worried about shorts...i'm in as well for 1,363x/4x.

Plenty of sellers up there, so i'm selling rallies now
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #846,383
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:23pm Oct 23, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} {quote} well sometimes the opposite complaint is made to me.
  • #846,384
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:24pm Oct 23, 2013 12:24pm
FF Trade Explorer Open Positions Summary for EUR/USD - makes the bull case stronger!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture1.png Size: 212 KB
  • #846,385
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:26pm Oct 23, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting davidsayli
{quote} eur/usd monthly chart {image}
hey your monthly chart looks different from the one you posted yesterday. you update monthly chart on daily basis?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #846,386
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:26pm Oct 23, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote}

  • #846,387
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:27pm Oct 23, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting virensfx
FF Trade Explorer Open Positions Summary for EUR/USD - makes the bull case stronger! {image}
for god sake, please do not predict market direction from retail positioning.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #846,388
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:28pm Oct 23, 2013 12:28pm
Short EUR/USD @1.3786
Long USD/TRY @1.9725



We may see this levels end of this week :

Eur/Usd : 1.3488
Usd/Try : 2.0030
  • #846,389
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:29pm Oct 23, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} for god sake, please do not predict market direction from retail positioning.
sir,
I'm tempted to as why not? But refraining.

It serves me very well.

Regards
  • #846,390
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:30pm Oct 23, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote}
i need 5 wives too. something stiff long enough for 5 wives.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #846,391
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:31pm Oct 23, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} for god sake, please do not predict market direction from retail positioning.
I never predict market direction from Oanda's retail positioning, however every morning when I begin trading I like to take a look at it. Been doing this for about two years and it's really interesting to see how consistently the retail majority is always trading in the opposite direction of the larger trend. It's just a very general indicator for me, I guess.
  • #846,392
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:34pm Oct 23, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} sir, I'm tempted to as why not? But refraining. It serves me very well. Regards
it might be true because most retail get the market direction wrong. but there are times retail traders get it right. it is 50/50.

in reality, the market is moved by how big commercials and hedge funds are positioned. to be specific, it is how the big boys suddenly change their positions. it is the big change of position holding that cause a massive change of price. this is how one should look at cot data. look for a sudden change of positioning in cot data, then expect a change of price to happen. A change causes another change.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #846,393
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:37pm Oct 23, 2013 12:37pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it might be true because most retail get the market direction wrong. but there are times retail traders get it right. it is 50/50. in reality, the market is moved by how big commercials and hedge funds are positioned.
  • #846,394
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:43pm Oct 23, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it might be true because most retail get the market direction wrong. but there are times retail traders get it right. it is 50/50. in reality, the market is moved by how big commercials and hedge funds are positioned. to be specific, it is how the big boys suddenly change their positions. it is the big change of position holding that cause a massive change of price. this is how one should look at cot data. look for a sudden change in cot data, then expect a change of price to happen.
Retail traders are actually quite good in trading shorter term direction. This has been acknowledged - over and over.

There however remains value in looking at the bigger pic.

This includes retail positioning for me.

I step off this topic.

Wish you all success

Regards
  • #846,395
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:53pm Oct 23, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it might be true because most retail get the market direction wrong. but there are times retail traders get it right. it is 50/50. in reality, the market is moved by how big commercials and hedge funds are positioned. to be specific, it is how the big boys suddenly change their positions. it is the big change of position holding that cause a massive change of price. this is how one should look at cot data. look for a sudden change of positioning in cot data, then expect a change of price to happen. A change causes another change.
COT chart example attached. From the cot chart of euro, big commercials just had a recent sudden increase of their net shorts. Expect a big drop of euro soon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-cot_023.png Size: 63 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #846,396
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:55pm Oct 23, 2013 12:55pm
still bearish Aussie - it wants 580/90
  • #846,397
  • Oct 23, 2013 1:03pm Oct 23, 2013 1:03pm
hm 3791-92 lookn like solid resistance or new support if it breaks up or down there will be $ to be made
  • #846,398
  • Oct 23, 2013 1:04pm Oct 23, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Retail traders are actually quite good in trading shorter term direction. This has been acknowledged - over and over. There however remains value in looking at the bigger pic. This includes retail positioning for me. I step off this topic. Wish you all success Regards
that i agree. and most retail traders scalp, not positioned for swing trades.
why there is always liquidity there? short term traders may take the opposite trades of long term traders. some traders get the direction wrong and fill the trades of the ones that get it right.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #846,399
  • Oct 23, 2013 1:08pm Oct 23, 2013 1:08pm
yeah.. I think another downwave but it could still be bullish long term.
  • #846,400
  • Oct 23, 2013 1:10pm Oct 23, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting FXMastermind
{quote} fresh low of the day. Demand zone still kicking though. Said with my favourite classic: "Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more!" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co7xGVs2GLg
Eating it slowly...No considerable retracement during main session speaks of further weakness ahead.

Daily close below .96 would be a blessing...Significant bearish engulfing forming anyway.
Quant Hedge Fund CEO
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