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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #38,421
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:29am Oct 22, 2013 9:29am
Quoting bikov
I think that this drop of USD on all fronts is a gift for USD bulls, specially GU and UsdChf...and of course my favorite UJ. UJ still in the weekly triangle which is very tight right now. To be or not to be these days.
I think you are right in UJ and UC, but wrong in GU
  • #38,422
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:32am Oct 22, 2013 9:32am
I reckon good odds we see 97.2, and from there, well, it's maybe a coin flip but I reckon 97.2 will give way and it goes further south.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #38,423
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:52am Oct 22, 2013 9:52am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} If we break above 98.40-98.5 then I reckon we could be back in bull mode again
Back to bear mode hit max on the candle and pushed up a bit above to squeeze out shorts and dropped after. Zig Zagged up and down to take shorts and bulls to cleaners. Most likely back on its way down from here to where it was headed before it was milked up. The Euro looks like it will see 1.39-1.40 now
  • #38,424
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:54am Oct 22, 2013 9:54am
Quoting iahmedz
{quote} I think you are right in UJ and UC, but wrong in GU
Maybe, I'm bullish on USD overall and agree that CHF is very overvalued. Anyway here at UJ I see this weekly triangle as a continuation pattern of the bullish trend. And for today, it seems that 98 is solid support..for now.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,425
  • Oct 22, 2013 1:48pm Oct 22, 2013 1:48pm
Hm, something is strange here about today's USD sell off : the unemployment rate is 7.2%, lowest level from the end of 2008. And from the other side QE is correlated with this rate, not NFP. So, the news were not so bad to justify this huge drop at USD. Maybe I'm wrong about this but somehow I have a feeling that this sell off is exaggerated.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,426
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:05pm Oct 22, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting bikov
Hm, something is strange here about today's USD sell off : the unemployment rate is 7.2%, lowest level from the end of 2008. And from the other side QE is correlated with this rate, not NFP. So, the news were not so bad to justify this huge drop at USD. Maybe I'm wrong about this but somehow I have a feeling that this sell off is exaggerated.
The figures undershot expectations by quite a bit, but I read something which said that participation is also down a lot - which would explain the '7.2%'.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #38,427
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:22pm Oct 22, 2013 2:22pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} The figures undershot expectations by quite a bit, but I read something which said that participation is also down a lot - which would explain the '7.2%'.

Yes, at NFP the expectations were 180k and for unempl.rate 7.3% but this big missing of expectations at NFP numbers still doesn't justify this dumping of greenback. But what do I know? Your point here is logical and I agree that the reality about the unemployment is not pink but not so dark, also. Market has the last word after all and UJ despite the drop of other USD pairs didn't dive under 98 (only few minutes) so maybe that means something.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,428
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:23pm Oct 22, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting bikov
{quote} Yes, at NFP the expectations were 180k and for unempl.rate 7.3% but this big missing of expectations at NFP numbers still doesn't justify this dumping of greenback. But what do I know? Your point here is logical and I agree that the reality about the unemployment is not pink but not so dark, also. Market has the last word after all and UJ despite the drop of other USD pairs didn't dive under 98 (only few minutes) so maybe that means something.
How does it not justify the selling of the USD?

its pretty obvious no?
  • #38,429
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:35pm Oct 22, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} How does it not justify the selling of the USD? its pretty obvious no?

it's obvious that it's a bad number, last NFP were 193k I think and a fall was logical and expected, but when usd/chf is under 0.8950 right now and gbp at these silly levels above 1.62 and euro ready to meet 1.38..no, it's not obvious to me. But as I said, the market is always right and sure it knows better than me what's going on so I'll have to adjust to that. Fortunately for my account UJ didn't react like his brothers.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,430
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:39pm Oct 22, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting bikov
{quote} it's obvious that it's a bad number, last NFP were 193k I think and a fall was logical and expected, but when usd/chf is under 0.8950 right now and gbp at these silly levels above 1.62 and euro ready to meet 1.38..no, it's not obvious to me. But as I said, the market is always right and sure it knows better than me what's going on so I'll have to adjust to that. Fortunately for my account UJ didn't react like his brothers.
well at its very basic it links back to this picture as to why growth is good for a CCY.

Hence a weak Employment report, indicative of weak demand in the economy, therefore flight to safety short term and US yields fell (10's trade 251bps)

Because of the cross asset correlation UJ dropped, and the short end of the curve dropped a touch therefore the USD was weaker in general as the key determinant in any FX rate is the yield differential.

I.e. all that matters in FX is interest rates, and they dropped by 0.1% today so therefore USD bearish.
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  • #38,431
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:52pm Oct 22, 2013 2:52pm
This morning I came with a theory that the today's NFP could be a "spark" for a new usd/jpy rally. Today's market movements in the usd/jpy could be defined with only 2 words: roller coaster. We had the first hour with a big drop in usd/jpy and the next hour the same pair made a new HH of the day. The next hour again investors sold off the usd/jpy. If you are not a roller coaster fan then today you had some headache and some of you also vomited
I just want to say that I did not change my opinion and I still think usd/jpy will start a new rally as the one started in 2012. I do not want to bore anyone here who maybe is not interested in fundamental analysis and I invite you to read my view on usd/jpy after NFP here: http://www.forex-galaxy.com/2013/10/...after-nfp.html
You will find an interesting chart showing the 14 September 2012 when FED started the QE3 and the usd/jpy reaction on that QE.
Look forward to hear ur opinion.
Buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying !
  • #38,432
  • Oct 22, 2013 3:19pm Oct 22, 2013 3:19pm
I think we are all on the same line here claiming that stronger growth lead to stronger currency, there's no argue about that, I'm an economist after all. I don't think that bad NFP numbers are good for USA, but I'm also with the opinion that tapering will come in 2014 sooner or later and USD is not just an ordinary currency but world reserve currency with intention to stay that way. And because move at the markets should be anticipation of the future not the past ( today's NFP numbers were from September) so I don't give absolute authorization to NFP to kill (or to launch) USD. Yes, unemployment and new added jobs are crucial and connected with tightening, but even worst case than today's wouldn't remove expected tapering, just postpone for a few months. Let's imagine NFP number like 98k for example. So, that means that usdchf should fall to 0.85 ? That would be very bad number but it wouldn't bring QE to infinity. An even if it would, the other countries would participate in that severe currency war. To resume, I totally agree about strong growth/strong currency correlation but this drop was exaggerated, but exaggeration is just my perception of reality, there isn't any absolute reliable number which points what is too much drop. So, my last comments here are subjective, of course, just my view of the overall market. October, November NFP are coming, it's not the end of the USA after bad NFP number today.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,433
  • Edited 4:02pm Oct 22, 2013 3:40pm | Edited 4:02pm
Looking for move to 96.60. Have been short since first bounce on TK crossing. After price getting rejected around stop/top of cloud I really expect this one to turn downward for some fresh lows... And I agree that US will do whatever it can to make sure it stays reserve currency, but just because we say we are/will be the reserve currency, doesnt mean the other countries have to agree. Someday some ones gunna get sick of our BS and do something about it. Not saying soon, but inevitably. That being said Id be really surprised to see this push down all the way down to 95-96

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Whatch yall thinking?


Added some Trend lines to help paint the picture.

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He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.
  • #38,434
  • Oct 22, 2013 3:59pm Oct 22, 2013 3:59pm
the old mantra for survival at the markets says "MM and discipline", every other thing is just guessing, just like mine about the greenback reserve status and tapering in 2014. I don't see any real alternative to USD in the near future (next 10-15 years) so I vote for USA. Maybe UJ will fall to 96, who knows, but that would be a great opportunity for accumulating. If I'm wrong, well, SL would save the day . So, MM and discipline after all, everything else is just a bet based on some probabilities and expectations.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,435
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:01pm Oct 22, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting bikov
the old mantra for survival at the markets says "MM and discipline", every other thing is just guessing, just like mine about the greenback reserve status and tapering in 2014. I don't see any real alternative to USD in the near future (next 10-15 years) so I vote for USA. Maybe UJ will fall to 96, who knows, but that would be a great opportunity for accumulating. If I'm wrong, well, SL would save the day . So, MM and discipline after all, everything else is just a bet based on some probabilities and expectations.


What you’re describing is not a bet on probabilities at all, and the “expectations” are that of your own, or that of what you have read.

Unless you’re buying or selling options, and if so I hope your selling, which if done correctly is a bet on probabilities everything else is what you described in your first sentence, its guessing.
  • #38,436
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:50pm Oct 22, 2013 5:50pm
Teddy Bear goes to southern area 95.5
Think out of the box........
  • #38,437
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:57pm Oct 22, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting Even-on-Ten
going to try some shorts at 98.41 and risk 30 pips...my target is 97.11
Moved my stop to break even for now..
Enter Signature
  • #38,438
  • Edited 10:09pm Oct 22, 2013 9:11pm | Edited 10:09pm
When the selling starts from Japan it only gets worse. Look for 97 or under

typing on an iPad sucks when using this forum. Major lag!!!!!
  • #38,439
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:44pm Oct 22, 2013 9:44pm
simple price action. just nailed 70pips on UJ. read the charts and candle patterns from values areas on the chart
  • #38,440
  • Edited 10:44pm Oct 22, 2013 10:15pm | Edited 10:44pm
Can someone explain this sudden drop of ~80pips on USD/JPY H1 (and pretty much all other pairs)? I cannot find any related news or is it still from NFP?
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