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  • #845,721
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:30am Oct 22, 2013 6:30am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} You can yet again say am idiot, but am actually going to lunch with my mate during number release. Two weeks, cmon, like 40 mins. Am hearing bout this idiotic NFP for like a week, since debt ceiling episode ended up. Its like nothing was happening in the world, no Europe, no Japan, China, just Bureau of Labour and Statistics. Cmon, its just a silly twisted number coming out of their bureaucratic aparate. Guess what, its gonna be good, cause US slowed down during debt ceiling so now corrects. And I am going to have a good meal. Good luck,...

this is good!
  • #845,722
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:33am Oct 22, 2013 6:33am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} You can yet again say am idiot, but am actually going to lunch with my mate during number release. Two weeks, cmon, like 40 mins. Am hearing bout this idiotic NFP for like a week, since debt ceiling episode ended up. Its like nothing was happening in the world, no Europe, no Japan, China, just Bureau of Labour and Statistics. Cmon, its just a silly twisted number coming out of their bureaucratic aparate. Guess what, its gonna be good, cause US slowed down during debt ceiling so now corrects. And I am going to have a good meal. Good luck,...

so u are leaving a trade with 1:40 leverage open and heading for lunch?. hats off to you.
  • #845,723
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:35am Oct 22, 2013 6:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} You can yet again say am idiot, but am actually going to lunch with my mate during number release. Two weeks, cmon, like 40 mins. Am hearing bout this idiotic NFP for like a week, since debt ceiling episode ended up. Its like nothing was happening in the world, no Europe, no Japan, China, just Bureau of Labour and Statistics. Cmon, its just a silly twisted number coming out of their bureaucratic aparate. Guess what, its gonna be good, cause US slowed down during debt ceiling so now corrects. And I am going to have a good meal. Good luck,...
Investors / banks / hedge funds are since the debt ceiling fight are trading or positioning / not trading or not positioning because what is out there is : Assumptions and speculations. This is the first number comes out after the debt ceiling fight that shows what exactly happened before the fight. Therefore a conclusion can be made :

1- Green, the USA economy was on growth path before the fight. By the time such short term fluctuation, the path should persist its main course.

2- Red, the recovery story not good as sound.

It might not be the number itself, but the type of certainty it provides


PS: Go back to previous NFP releases and see how price was reacting to the numbers. In most of cases i found - it took 5 days to retreat was price bounced from.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #845,724
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:36am Oct 22, 2013 6:36am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Investors / banks / hedge funds are since the debt ceiling fight are trading or positioning / not trading or not positioning because what is out there is : Assumptions and speculations. This is the first number comes out after the debt ceiling fight that shows what exactly happened before the fight. Therefore a conclusion can be made : 1- Green, the USA economy was on growth path before the fight. By the time such short term fluctuation, the path should persist its main course. 2- Red, the recovery story not good as sound. It might not be...

like always bang on with your explaination.
  • #845,725
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:39am Oct 22, 2013 6:39am
If unemployment claims are any indication they were significantly better in Sept then they have been in recent memory
  • #845,726
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:40am Oct 22, 2013 6:40am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Investors / banks / hedge funds are since the debt ceiling fight are trading or positioning / not trading or not positioning because what is out there is : Assumptions and speculations. This is the first number comes out after the debt ceiling fight that shows what exactly happened before the fight. Therefore a conclusion can be made : 1- Green, the USA economy was on growth path before the fight. By the time such short term fluctuation, the path should persist its main course. 2- Red, the recovery story not good as sound. It might not be...

this is the first time NFP on normal trading day (as far i know) , today we would know weather NFP move pa or FRY day moved it
Mohan
  • #845,727
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:43am Oct 22, 2013 6:43am
Quoting mohan76
{quote} last 11 hours EU in 19 pip range , yesterday it was stuck in 23 pip range for 15h
almost 15 hours we are still in 19 pip range
Mohan
  • #845,728
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:56am Oct 22, 2013 6:56am
Quoting mohan76
{quote} almost 15 hours we are still in 19 pip range
vanity...

15 hours... less than a life
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #845,729
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:57am Oct 22, 2013 6:57am
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3627 and 1.3719, strong support at 1.3614 and by 1.3732 as strong resistance. If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.3600 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above 1.3741 level, then it will be high bullish strength. I will open a BUY position at the level of 1.3640 and at 1.3706.
Good thoughts and actions can never produce bad results.
  • #845,730
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:01am Oct 22, 2013 7:01am
Quoting babajee
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3627 and 1.3719, strong support at 1.3614 and by 1.3732 as strong resistance. If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.3600 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above 1.3741 level, then it will be high bullish strength. I will open a BUY position at the level of 1.3640 and at 1.3706.
all these levels will go over the roof with a good and bad nfp
  • #845,731
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:04am Oct 22, 2013 7:04am
Quoting mohan76
{quote} almost 15 hours we are still in 19 pip range

I love 19 pip range if this pair do every day, buy, sell, buy, sell..............
Good thoughts and actions can never produce bad results.
  • #845,732
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:04am Oct 22, 2013 7:04am
I understand many here have relatively short term strategies, but in my opinion there seems to be a considerable case to argue for simply punting a short EURUSD today.

The main point being that a good NFP, being over 210k, is not expected by markets. The main sentiment is tapering is now delayed until march, a single good NFP number today will call that current consensus into question and shift the market's focus squarely onto THE NEXT NFP which is only 16 days from today.

My strategy is simply to go massively short right before the number, if I lose I lose. However if the number is very good, which unemployment claims have clued it in to be.... today could market the reversal of the bullish EURUSD trend, which will see this pair move significantly lower over the next few months. I will be adding my short on each pullback and breakout.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #845,733
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:13am Oct 22, 2013 7:13am
Quoting babajee
{quote} I love 19 pip range if this pair do every day, buy, sell, buy, sell..............

i am used to good at doing super scalping , but give up , if this tight range continue i have bush up my scalping knowledge
Mohan
  • #845,734
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:14am Oct 22, 2013 7:14am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} all these levels will go over the roof with a good and bad nfp

The government being shutdown for 16 days and the fact that Fitch Rating has put U.S. sovereign credit on watch negative, the Feds aren’t likely to start taper unless we get a huge upward surprise today. if we get a strong NFP release I sell at 1.3600.
Good thoughts and actions can never produce bad results.
  • #845,735
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:16am Oct 22, 2013 7:16am
Hedged 1 buy -1 sell on different accounts with SL 20 pips
Per aspera ad astra
  • #845,736
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:17am Oct 22, 2013 7:17am
Quoting babajee
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3627 and 1.3719, strong support at 1.3614 and by 1.3732 as strong resistance. If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.3600 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above 1.3741 level, then it will be high bullish strength. I will open a BUY position at the level of 1.3640 and at 1.3706.

i know where you copy this, at least put some credit to that website/author, ty.
Silent Reader with Ninja style, LOL!
  • #845,737
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:19am Oct 22, 2013 7:19am
Quoting jpadvisor
Hedged 1 buy -1 sell on different accounts with SL 20 pips

you are under estimating NRP yo-yo move and spread it could get both s/l
Mohan
  • #845,738
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:22am Oct 22, 2013 7:22am
Quoting mohan76
{quote} you are under estimating NRP yo-yo move and spread it could get both s/l
Maybe in his 1m chart ... 20 pips seems like eternity !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #845,739
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:23am Oct 22, 2013 7:23am
3587?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #845,740
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:25am Oct 22, 2013 7:25am
surprisingly spreads are normal till now. normally my broker increases by 10 pips on all pairs
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