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  • #845,581
  • Oct 21, 2013 2:48pm Oct 21, 2013 2:48pm
UJ H4

short here (9820) with 2nd entry p/o at 9840 sl 9880 tp 9780
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  • #845,582
  • Oct 21, 2013 2:53pm Oct 21, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} my simple chart 6+ months back indicated 3739. of course the current area posted is on a larger tf. so after 3739 i will be more inclined to look to s after 3739/41489. in the mean time, a pullback is healthy for a long. after all, a pullback at s/r is also a trend.

Yes 1.3739/42 is the target for the longs and after that 1.3839. Those are the levels I'm waiting for a short in lower time frame. But i'd prefer a pullback to 1.3620 and 1.3530 before reaching those targets. Reaching those lower levels will not invalidate the longs target. If it stubbornly go higher without pullback i'll have to kill my Uj longs.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #845,583
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:00pm Oct 21, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Wait? So you got your cash using high leverage ....! ( So the conlusion is correct, he doesn't have money thus using high leverage ) I would appreciate if you read alittle bit what i wrote , before jumping in to reply: Highly leverage can work , in swing trades yes ... but the guy is trading in a 10 pips range ! not 1000 or even 500 pips Ps: If you suck at trading, you have high probability of survival using low leverage, in comparison to higher one. ( Its a mathematical fact )

seems like a recipe to fail. high leverage does not make one a better trader. regardless of leverage the trader needs to make good trades. high leverage or low leverage, the risk is the account. on those highly leveraged ones the pressure to make a good trade is amplified. like was said earlier, as account grows, brokers cut leverage.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #845,584
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:05pm Oct 21, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting chazzle
UJ H4 short here (9820) with 2nd entry p/o at 9840 sl 9880 tp 9780 {image}
I don't like to have you on the other side of the fence. Be kind, let it go to 9879, before taking it lower.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #845,585
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:14pm Oct 21, 2013 3:14pm
EUR/USD DAILY CHART
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  • #845,586
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:14pm Oct 21, 2013 3:14pm
S&P500 WEEKLY CHART
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  • #845,587
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:15pm Oct 21, 2013 3:15pm
WS30 MONTHLY CHART
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  • #845,588
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:18pm Oct 21, 2013 3:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} seems like a recipe to fail. high leverage does not make one a better trader. regardless of leverage the trader needs to make good trades. high leverage or low leverage, the risk is the account. on those highly leveraged ones the pressure to make a good trade is amplified. like was said earlier, as account grows, brokers cut leverage.
Though I travel through the valley of great losses, I shall fear no drawdown for I shall tell my beloved's that it is an investment that will mature in ten years.

Woosa!
  • #845,589
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:19pm Oct 21, 2013 3:19pm
S.O.S S.O.S S.O.S
I got a USD bear signal.

Good night.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #845,590
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:21pm Oct 21, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Though I travel through the valley of great losses, I shall fear no drawdown for I shall tell my beloved's that it is an investment that will mature in ten years. Woosa!
lol, this thread lacked a romantic. It's done now and welcome.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #845,591
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:25pm Oct 21, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} lol, this thread lacked a romantic. It's done now and welcome.

Anytime
  • #845,592
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:57pm Oct 21, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting maximinus
Be kind, let it go to 9879, before taking it lower.
are you mad? the spread will get me
  • #845,593
  • Oct 21, 2013 5:16pm Oct 21, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting davidsayli
S&P500 WEEKLY CHART {image}
comment.
I see him play before falling in 1752-1753 but until then end of the month and always pumping down?
  • #845,594
  • Oct 21, 2013 5:22pm Oct 21, 2013 5:22pm
Citi's FX update

Citi FX:

By no surprise, the global FX market was on hold Monday given anticipation for the September NFP report on Tuesday. Sentiment resulted in a tentative bid for the USD, hitting NZD, JPY and NOK in G10 the hardest. The worst performers in emerging markets included MXN and CLP followed by TRY and ZAR.

• Consensus looks for a NFP gain of +180k, with a flat unemployment reading of 7.3%.

• Results of our new snap poll here, suggest that USD upside on a strong NFP exceeding +200k is the largest risk. CitiFX Strategy’s Steven Englander agrees given his latest analysis.



• “If labor markets turn out to be firmer than the consensus and Fed now think, we will see a rapid unwinding of short USD and long bond positions,” says Englander in his focus piece.

• “In the first instance, this will hit high-beta G10 and EM currencies. The currencies that have rallied the most since the last FOMC are: BRL, AUD, HUF, PLN, NZD, INR, MYR, IDR. We certainly see vulnerability on those which have external imbalances or are commodity linked.”

• Minimal USD weakness followed US existing home sales Monday, which fell to 5.29mn in September (versus 5.30mn consensus) and saw a prior month revision from 5.48mn to 5.39mn.

• As a last point on data, the delayed retail sales report for September will be released October 29.

• Despite the countdown to NFP and broader market bias, turnover in USDJPY remained strong and was skewed to the downside on our platforms. Banks names drove that, while the leveraged community bought lightly. Real money seemed to be on the sidelines.

• There was a lot of chat about and some decent action in AUDJPY. Overall, we saw good turnover and a bias over the global session in favor of buying. Leveraged accounts led that demand.

• However, in early Europe, we saw good selling as the cross neared its 200d MA, at 94.73. This is rightfully a level of focus - AUDJPY has not closed below the 200d MA since a brief dip below it on October 23 2012 almost a year ago.

• So far, the 200d MA has not been decisively breached, leaving the cross back towards 94.80. Should the uptrend continue mind that barrier interest, with stops above that, are speculated from the 95.00 figure.

• Activity was also strong in AUDUSD. Leveraged names were net buyers there as well, with supply provided by banks and real money. Our flow had a bias of 51% in favor of buying.

• There’s not really much to say about EURUSD as it remained in range. The same is true for GBP.We did see some EURGBP buying from several real money names in early Europe but activity eventually wore thinner into the NY session.

• In his latest anti-EUR rant, the Daily Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (AEP) argues that Frexit fever has spread to the heart of the French establishment. “An astonishing new book by François Heisbourg – La Fin du Rêve Européen (The end of the European dream) – argues that the ‘EUR cancer’ must be cut out to save the rest of the EU Project before it is too late.”

• EUR strength was also of focus after SAP, the world’s biggest business software vendor by sales, cautioned that the weakening of major currencies against the EUR could impact fourth-quarter revenue and operating profit growth.

• The FT reported: “..the Germany-based company cautioned that if exchange rates remain at present levels, growth in software and related service revenues could be about 5 percentage points lower than expected, while operating profit growth would be impacted by around 7 percentage points. Currency is expected to be a significant headwind for an array of European multinationals in the third quarter, partly because of big declines in emerging market currencies and the weakening of the USD and JPY.”

• SEK was G10’s outperformer but as CitiFX Strategy notes here, that party may soon be over on the the NOKSEK cross.

• USDCAD remained in range, underpinned by corporate demand. Tuesday could prove more interesting given the double whammy of NFP and Canadian retail sales. Remember, BoC also follows Wednesday.



EM in focus

• MXN underperformance on Monday was twofold: positioning adjustments from US debt deal trade and weaker retail sales data. Sales fell by -2.2%YoY versus +1.2% expected.

• CitiFX Latam Strategy looks for further MXN underperformance into this Friday’s policy meeting. Citi Economics expects Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25bp, as inflation risks are minimal while activity risks remain tilted to the downside. A gradual improvement in the data flow, along with the fact that the ex-ante real policy rate will enter negative territory, suggests that this could be the last cut this year.

• In Ceemea FX, USDZAR staged a good bounce on the back of corporate hedging. This has seen it rally back above 9.8400, which is the upper end of a nice trend channel on the hourly chart.

• Market reaction was very mild to the Russia’s CB decision to adjust its intervention mechanism. The bank decreased the amount of targeted interventions from USD120mn to USD60mn, meaning that it will shift the intervention corridor at a faster pace in case it buys or sells USD on the market.

• For example, the CB will be moving the whole structure by 5 kopeks up every 3 days when they sell USD200mn a day and almost every day if they sell USD400mn a day.

• USDAsia was quiet but our QIS team made a notable observation. Following the US budget debacle, our Positioning Indicator suggests record longs in Asia FX.

• Asia FX saw the most consistent demand, with KRW, IDR, CNY, THB and SGD all reporting net inflows. The aggregate net long exposure to Asian currencies increased to 21% AUM, resulting in a record high Positioning Indicator reading.

• Long positions in CEEMEA FX also increased, but largely due to elimination of ILS shorts. MXN selling offset buying of CLP and BRL in Latin America. Recent Mexican data releases have continued to disappoint and the country reports the lowest Citi Economic Surprise Index globally. Click here for more.

• WTI fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since early July as inventories reached a 3m high.
  • #845,595
  • Oct 21, 2013 5:33pm Oct 21, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} 4H trend in usd pairs all need a pullback , if they will resume they will resume after the pullback. gbpusd needs around 1.6070, eurusd around 1.3610, usdchf around 0.9073
No movement and a new day so here are the new targets ;

gbpusd short needs around 1.6090-nfp max 1.6050 ,
eurusd short around 1.3630- nfp max 1.3595 ,
usdchf long around 0.9055- nfp max 0.9080,
gold short 1304 -nfp max 1292
  • #845,596
  • Oct 21, 2013 5:49pm Oct 21, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting chazzle
UJ H4 short here (9820) with 2nd entry p/o at 9840 sl 9880 tp 9780 {image}
short too 98.18. my sl is 9822
looking for investors . pm me
  • #845,597
  • Oct 21, 2013 6:20pm Oct 21, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yup 3am here, cable just doing retest of 15min neckline break will check back in morning gangsters with bs data, plan stays the same selling rallies

i hope you up , some time sleeping good idia, switch on my screen i can see cable making crack on 27
Mohan
  • #845,598
  • Oct 21, 2013 6:55pm Oct 21, 2013 6:55pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yup 3am here, cable just doing retest of 15min neckline break will check back in morning fuken gangsters with bs data, plan stays the same selling rallies
Bulls are finished......

Get ready, mate.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #845,599
  • Oct 21, 2013 6:59pm Oct 21, 2013 6:59pm
Can i come in?PLEASE!
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  • #845,600
  • Oct 21, 2013 7:05pm Oct 21, 2013 7:05pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=453585
been there done that, Good Bye
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