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  • #845,381
  • Oct 20, 2013 4:28pm Oct 20, 2013 4:28pm
Hi everyone,
I am reading almost all the treats here (eurusd).I see that there are so many experienced and high skills traders so I thought someone may help me to understand the psychology of the current us$ situation. Why markets did not trust US $ after obama signed the legislation?Is it because us could not find a permanent solution? I am a newbie, and stuck w/US $ now and I am not sure if it will 1.37 even 1.38 ?So any help greatly appreciated?
S.
  • #845,382
  • Oct 20, 2013 5:31pm Oct 20, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting lovesuccess
Hi everyone, I am reading almost all the treats here (eurusd).I see that there are so many experienced and high skills traders so I thought someone may help me to understand the psychology of the current us$ situation. Why markets did not trust US $ after obama signed the legislation?Is it because us could not find a permanent solution? I am a newbie, and stuck w/US $ now and I am not sure if it will 1.37 even 1.38 ?So any help greatly appreciated? S.
It took a lot of people by surprise, me personally was expecting this Euro strengthing shred will switch off by the time the debt ceiling is kicked down the road. What i would suggest is not to do net short/ long position on a currency these days ! So , better if you can long a couple of Euro crosses - best one is EURCHF , EURJPY and maybe an index or two. Just make the calculation to be 60 % short Eurusd , 40 % long ... ( If your broker allow headging on the same pair, would be even greater )

Use the profit of the headge to unwind the loses on the original position - short euro , so you are left with more free margin and margin downside protection.

Or simply take the lose , and move on with ur life
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #845,383
  • Edited 6:24pm Oct 20, 2013 6:20pm | Edited 6:24pm
Quoting lovesuccess
Hi everyone
Yo, weclome aboard. Its just short term money flow. US debt ceiling episode resulted in US bonds selling. Once this was solved, it was equal to heavy buy on US bonds = heavy sell of USD. Moreover, US Stocks reacted the same way, so it is yet again buy on Stocks and sell on USD. Gold the same.

Take care and good luck,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #845,384
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:37pm Oct 20, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting lovesuccess
Hi everyone, I am reading almost all the treats here (eurusd).I see that there are so many experienced and high skills traders so I thought someone may help me to understand the psychology of the current us$ situation. Why markets did not trust US $ after obama signed the legislation?Is it because us could not find a permanent solution? I am a newbie, and stuck w/US $ now and I am not sure if it will 1.37 even 1.38 ?So any help greatly appreciated? S.
Pick a time frame.

Cut that TF into Quarters.

If at the last quarter we are above the open of that candle...you see a trend.

Check out the Yearly candle on EU.

We are above that line and into the last quarter of the year...do you think it matters what anybody says? Become a fundamentalist.

Be beware, nobody likes those guys...

Pros:
You will learn to say a lot without saying anything.
Cons:
Based on fundamentals alone, you will suck as a trader. HARD!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #845,385
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:39pm Oct 20, 2013 6:39pm
I still cant find any logic in that, let me tell you why.
You say US debt celing ====> US bond sell
Then US debt ceiling RESOLVED
Heavy buy on US Bonds ====> Heavy sell of USD
Then why before the crisis resolved US bond sell did not result in heavy buy on USD
Does not make sense to me
  • #845,386
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:47pm Oct 20, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} It took a lot of people by surprise, me personally was expecting this Euro strengthing shred will switch off by the time the debt ceiling is kicked down the road. What i would suggest is not to do net short/ long position on a currency these days ! So , better if you can long a couple of Euro crosses - best one is EURCHF , EURJPY and maybe an index or two. Just make the calculation to be 60 % short Eurusd , 40 % long ... ( If your broker allow headging on the same pair, would be even greater ) Use the profit of the headge to unwind the loses...

Thank you Vachus,
I am already short on usd and really need to take care of my margin. I wish my broker allows hedging on the same pair,unfortunately not.So, I do appreciate your recommendations (!). Thanks a lot.
  • #845,387
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:48pm Oct 20, 2013 6:48pm
Seeing some real cracks on Euro which is running on very thin ice.Already demonstrations in Italy.
http://rt.com/news/rome-protest-austerity-budget-435/
watch the video its pretty tense
EU Races for Bank-Failure Deal Deadline to Avert Quagmire
worth reading above

Here is my Bearish logic on EU
With 17-27% unemployment,very little growth and German manufacturing down I don't see a long term up potential.
We have a greater probability of developing hard drop trend from 37's to 1.30 in 2-3 months or less.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #845,388
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:57pm Oct 20, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yo, weclome aboard. Its just short term money flow. US debt ceiling episode resulted in US bonds selling. Once this was solved, it was equal to heavy buy on US bonds = heavy sell of USD. Moreover, US Stocks reacted the same way, so it is yet again buy on Stocks and sell on USD. Gold the same. Take care and good luck, T

Hi Tom,
Thanks for the warm welcome That really explained a lot (!) So the question How did you ( or someone) know that market will demand for bonds rather than usd? How do you estimate it?
Thank you for your response again, appreciate it.
S.
  • #845,389
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:07pm Oct 20, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting Davit
Seeing some real cracks on Euro which is running on very thin ice.Already demonstrations in Italy. http://rt.com/news/rome-protest-austerity-budget-435/ watch the video its pretty tense EU Races for Bank-Failure Deal Deadline to Avert Quagmire worth reading above Here is my Bearish logic on EU With 17-27% unemployment,very little growth and German manufacturing down I don't see a long term up potential. We have a greater...
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #845,390
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:10pm Oct 20, 2013 7:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} possibly, if 3677 and 3671 support give up.. if that happens, if i wanted to L, i would wait for 3588 area with a reason..
trying
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #845,391
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:23pm Oct 20, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote}

how is Aussie , its missed my pending sell (by 20 pips ), will it fill it later ?
Mohan
  • #845,392
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:56pm Oct 20, 2013 7:56pm
The question is what we seeing is it a correction or we will see 1.32xx soon????
  • #845,393
  • Edited 8:30pm Oct 20, 2013 8:12pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting kmk483
Then why before the crisis resolved US bond sell did not result in heavy buy on USD Does not make sense to me
What doesnt make sence? I know am simplyfying it heavy, but if you got malfunctioning government, would you buy its bonds?

Quoting lovesuccess
How did you ( or someone) know that market will demand for bonds rather than usd?
Sry, I know nothing . Its just internet forum, beware what you read. Anyway the answer is the same, malfunctioning government wont sell much of its bonds. While talking bout this issue, another impact is that US 10y bond yields are still too high, so FED cant withdraw its stimulus, so in effect USD could be weakening further. I wouldnt try to catch high on EU right now.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #845,394
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:38pm Oct 20, 2013 8:38pm
This forum has gone calm ever since last thursday.
  • #845,395
  • Edited 9:22pm Oct 20, 2013 8:48pm | Edited 9:22pm
Quoting lovesuccess
How do you estimate it?
Its not like this was a trading advice, but am more of an analyst than trader and think I should expand here. Yet again very simplyfied (and am stoned) so please dont kill me . Value of a currency is composed of money flows of many asset classess + trade balance. These always come first. Hard to say what has the biggest impact, as it is changing. Trade balance is a difference between exports and imports of nations, these macro are monitored mainly by IMF and are affecting currency value long term. Short term money flows often result out of Stocks, Bonds, or Commodities, which are usually priced in USD, so there is a negative correlation. So if you got some kind of shock to market, these react first and USD follows. Maybe .

edit: I ve deleted politics, as these are only affecting those asset classess. And trade balance is just a balance of those classes. Kinda funny to try to simplify whole economy in one sentence, so here goes: "People trade goods, goods are priced in USD."

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #845,396
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:03pm Oct 20, 2013 9:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} possibly, if 3677 and 3671 support give up.. if that happens, if i wanted to L, i would wait for 3588 area with a reason..

still in this support... but its on the lower side and still needs 36660.0 hit.. after that it may touch 3684 ish again. if its makes a lower low after then lying st is indicating 3638. 3588 is 50 pips lower, and one of the most common moves. this is not intended to cheer a short or a long. just a "what happens most times post. "
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #845,397
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:40pm Oct 20, 2013 9:40pm
Quoting mohan76
{quote} how is Aussie , its missed my pending sell (by 20 pips ), will it fill it later ?
aussie will take time bloated by risk, hope you still holding cable and or geppy
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #845,398
  • Edited 10:05pm Oct 20, 2013 9:51pm | Edited 10:05pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} aussie will take time bloated by risk, hope you still holding cable and or geppy

cable yes , geppy hit breakeven tp
Mohan
  • #845,399
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:19pm Oct 20, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting ibram.forex
The question is what we seeing is it a correction or we will see 1.32xx soon????
i can see pa wanting 4148.9. in the past 6 months we never made it to 3739. so i wouldn't discount it. pa has done all it does most times to hit 3739. with the 4148.9 target, 3102 goes hand in hand with it. so before we get to 4148.9 most times 3102 is needed.. 3739 is on a older tf then 4148.9, 4148 was built in the 3739 path.. in the 400 pips from 3739 to 4147 i expect 3102 pullback... or at least it happens like this most times.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #845,400
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:21pm Oct 20, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting mohan76
{quote} cable yes , geppy hit breakeven tp

you seem to be asking kiwitrada for every trade you make. don't you have a opinion of your own
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