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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #70,401
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:19am Oct 17, 2013 8:19am
Attention Shifts from US Fiscal Policy to Monetary, Pushes Dollar Lower
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/10/attention-shifts-from-us-fiscal-policy.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,402
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:09pm Oct 17, 2013 1:09pm
Short EUR/USD 1.3678
Reason for short:
1. Completion of EW wave 5.
2. Major bearish divergence on Daily chart (MacD and RSX).
3. Supply zone drawn off the 2013 1.3710 rejection candle.
4. Rising upper trend line resistance.

First target at 1.3500
Second target at 1.3340
SL at 1.3720

EURUSDCALL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,403
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:21pm Oct 17, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Short EUR/USD 1.3678 Reason for short: 1. Completion of EW wave 5. 2. Major bearish divergence on Daily chart (MacD and RSX). 3. Supply zone drawn off the 2013 1.3710 rejection candle. 4. Rising upper trend line resistance. First target at 1.3500 Second target at 1.3340 SL at 1.3720 EURUSDCALL
plus it is OB (Over Bought) heavily.....profit taking probabilities on last day of week etc...off to play sm 10's ...catch U on the backstroke...
  • #70,404
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:25pm Oct 17, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} plus it is OB (Over Bought) heavily.....profit taking probabilities on last day of week etc...
Yep I knew that, but I was tired of typing all my reasons.
I have another reason too. 1.3700 is gonna be a bitch of a resistance level. A few barrier options reported there so will be heavily defended by real (not leveraged) money.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,405
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:26pm Oct 17, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote}...off to play sm 10's ...catch U on the backstroke...
Enjoy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,406
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:28pm Oct 17, 2013 1:28pm
US Non-Farm Payroll report for September to be released on Tuesday October 22nd
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,407
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:38pm Oct 17, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep I knew that, but I was tired of typing all my reasons. I have another reason too. 1.3700 is gonna be a bitch of a resistance level. A few barrier options reported there so will be heavily defended by real (not leveraged) money.
PT, defended are recent entry points not some old profit taking levels.. 1.37 is just a reference point (purely psichological like a round number) nothing more. I would rather exspect hesitation at 1.3780's or 1.39.
Still, IF the reasons you mention will make it retrace more deeply inside recent range, than next attack of the highs will be even stronger. Either way - bullish as much as it can be...
Did you noticed AU reaction to 0.9632?
69
  • #70,408
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:03pm Oct 17, 2013 2:03pm
Today's performance. http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx
Per aspera ad astra
  • #70,409
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:04pm Oct 17, 2013 2:04pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post7034079

Posted 4 days ago..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,410
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:15pm Oct 17, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting forexalien
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post7034079 Posted 4 days ago..............
Two months ago..

Quoting Likerty
{quote} Ok then. I say EU will make HH above 1.3710, you say it wont. For a bottle of 0.7l 12 YO Glenfiddich. A LL below 1.2745 would mean that I was wrong.

And 14 hours ago (before London's ramp up)


https://twitter.com/VienasEdvinas/st...34770356772865


69
  • #70,411
  • Oct 17, 2013 7:04pm Oct 17, 2013 7:04pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Two months ago.. {quote} And 14 hours ago (before London's ramp up) https://twitter.com/VienasEdvinas/st...34770356772865
I am just working H4 context for general traders.

Glad to see you are doing so well.

I picked out the AU fall months before it happens, most traders don't have the patience to wait for the proper trades and this is where they lose money..............IMO

Other pairs are getting ready for large moves in the months to come also...............

Have a great one ..........!
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,412
  • Oct 18, 2013 3:43am Oct 18, 2013 3:43am
Swing high?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 36 KB
Per aspera ad astra
  • #70,413
  • Oct 18, 2013 5:03am Oct 18, 2013 5:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
US Non-Farm Payroll report for September to be released on Tuesday October 22nd
US Consumer cpi (inflation) report for September will be released on Wednesday 23rd October
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,414
  • Oct 18, 2013 8:23am Oct 18, 2013 8:23am
A RSI trading strategy I have been refining this year. It is like most in that on the surface it looks very dependable and consistent - and it is. However, there are flaws: I don't know when to take profit and if you read the RSI wrong (s simple but costly mistake to make) you could lose. Other then that it yields a profit (of varying size) technically 100% of the time. I therefore suggest using it in tandem with other chart indications such as S/R, BB, and multiple TFs. Let me know if what you think and if you see a good way to know when to T/P.

For Daily chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1 RSI evidence - Oct. 18 2013.png Size: 193 KB


For Weekly chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: W1 RSI evidance Oct.18 2013.png Size: 183 KB
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #70,415
  • Oct 18, 2013 1:01pm Oct 18, 2013 1:01pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
A RSI trading strategy I have been refining this year. It is like most in that on the surface it looks very dependable and consistent - and it is. However, there are flaws: I don't know when to take profit and if you read the RSI wrong (s simple but costly mistake to make) you could lose. Other then that it yields a profit (of varying size) technically 100% of the time. I therefore suggest using it in tandem with other chart indications such as S/R, BB, and multiple TFs. Let me know if what you think and if you see a good way to know when to T/P....
Why not just keep the trade open till you get a O/B or O/S signal on the RSI(5). When you get a buy signal on both RSI(5) and RSI(14), take a buy, and then close it when you see an O/B signal on RSI(5)... and vice versa.

On higher time frames, you may want to narrow the thresholds to 30 and 70 on the RSI(14) only.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,416
  • Oct 18, 2013 1:17pm Oct 18, 2013 1:17pm
Holy crap. This cannot be a good thing for the retail bear. That's a massive short squeeze waiting to happen... unless we see the shorts unwind as the Euro pulls back, just like when the Euro was up at these levels back on 1st Feb 2013
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 265 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,417
  • Oct 18, 2013 1:55pm Oct 18, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Holy crap. This cannot be a good thing for the retail bear. That's a massive short squeeze waiting to happen... unless we see the shorts unwind as the Euro pulls back, just like when the Euro was up at these levels back on 1st Feb 2013 {image}

It is a good thing that everyone goes short, I just hope that the EUR/USD will go short soon too
  • #70,418
  • Oct 19, 2013 3:48am Oct 19, 2013 3:48am
http://www.expat.hsbc.com/1/PA_ES_Co...cy_outlook.pdf
nice reading for the weekend
  • #70,419
  • Oct 19, 2013 5:09am Oct 19, 2013 5:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
Holy crap. This cannot be a good thing for the retail bear. That's a massive short squeeze waiting to happen... unless we see the shorts unwind as the Euro pulls back, just like when the Euro was up at these levels back on 1st Feb 2013 {image}

Haven't you noticed that on extreme biases markets make tops and bottoms ? It's as if the retail will be right...for once...

Look at the historical position ratios at Oanda to see what i mean.
  • #70,420
  • Oct 19, 2013 9:47am Oct 19, 2013 9:47am
BNP PARIBAS' opinion.
http://www.efxnews.com/story/21276/u...de-bnp-paribas
Per aspera ad astra
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