USD/JPY Discussion

bull seems to be building lets see

Possible but too early to tell still. Could very well see another drop.

I think each person has and developes their own trading style and techniques. What works for some may or may not work for others.It is always good to see and look at what others here feel and think. Over time we can tell which ones are right and which ones are wrong. Always good to see and view how the bears feel and how the bulls feel.

still got a ways to go..

https://twitter.com/VarisPanJafa/sta...899968/photo/1

playing in the 98 region.....no "friday action" yet

dont know if we have a chance at it, but I would try some longs near 97.10 and risk 30pips...

BOJ continues to loosen monetary policy to make its economic growth. Yen currency will continue to lose its value. Forex pair USD / JPY will recover strongly after adjusting ended.
The following chart shows a strong revival of it:

Broke my own rule today by not chasing and got back in with a big position at 98 but got out at 97.9
Got out too damn early though today. Can not complain though as I made money.

Your prayers are being answered. We all start praying after we enter with large positions lol..

July 2007 was the start of the great unwinding of the carry-trade, GJ dropped 50% with most of that aligned with the onset of sub-prime mortgage debacle.
The current UJ price is sitting at 50% fib of the fall from July 2007. 101.nn is also the bottom of the range from the start of this century until ~ Lehman....

That suggests PA has hit a resistance, definitely there is a flag at the current level.
The 62% fib retracement on UJ is 105.2 and that is a reasonable target for believers.
There are some other nearer targets at 101.50, 103.40, and then above at ~108.5

It all depends upon your timeframe and whether you believe the Yen will weaken further.
One seismic event that has possibly reshaped things is that the Fukushima disaster has put nuclear power into a bad light with the Japanese people. It has been stated that nuclear will be run-down and oil or gas used to generate electricity in the future. That will cause Japan to become a significant importer of oil or gas with consequences upon the Yen.

Monthly RSI is well-bought, weekly RSI is neutral, PA is range-bound between 96 and 100.

I'm interested in next week. Lets see what in store for UJ then

hmm, false break of 97.75?

going to be an interesting bar/candle on the 4 hour anyways. still holding most of long from 96.63...

will review on Sunday evening.

beer time now have a pleasant weekend all.

went in to short with a very tight stop.

edit: moved my stop to be, hoping for a sell down.

stop out both my uj/ej attempt but that's for free anyway

So far today we have been on schedule Good old reversal has taken place between Thursday and Friday. Most have taken profits off the table before the weekend. Birds will probably come in after opening to eat what is left. We had a pretty nice drop from 99 till a low of 97.54 today and now we are at 97.83 which is close to the middle now between today's low and high. Anyone entering now would be gambling. Odds are bad now.

The concepts and methodologies I use in FX and equity trading, and most certainly applicable to other asset classes are statistically (not only in theory, but practical) proven to provide higher probability winners, with the side effects being potentially much lower drawdowns compared to long/short trades and higher, sustainable long term account returns.

It’s not the Holy Grail, but it’s much closer than long/short spot FX, especially for retail traders who probably don’t have 1M+ accounts or the services, people and tools larger funds or organizations have as standard.

The bears are right sometimes, which means the bulls are wrong sometimes, and vice-versa – only one person wins. The types of trades I’m initiating and posting represent, long term something of an 80-90% winning percentage. All the trades I’ve posted so far have expired OTM, which represents a short term 100% winning percentage. Furthermore, eventually I will run into a loser, but with options, be it rolling it out and up (or down) or other adjustments I can turn that loser into an instant winner, as every day passes I make money without even needing to execute another trade or take additional risk.

It would take an extremely large, sustained move for my strategy to come into trouble, just like if you were on the wrong side of this being either long/short spot FX. However, the one key difference is, as discussed above, I have an out-clause that can be used to reduce its loss substantially, entirely, or yes, turn it back into overall profit. This in no way can be done in spot FX.

There is no secret about this strategy, selling options is widely published in books, magazines and stories online. If you’re looking to make you’re trading more profitable, stop looking at “new” technical indicators (which are not actually new at all) and look at it from a different perspective.

The vast majority of retail FX traders do not sell (or even buy) FX options. The NFA reports that only 46.5% of Interactive Brokers retail FX accounts are profitable, but I know most of you don’t trade with IB, so you’re actually looking at something more between 42% and 28% based on Q2 2013 data.

If you want to become a full-time retail FX trader, or you already are and making “some” money I suggest you step-up your game and trade like the big boys. You can become a big boy, just on a very small scale, but that’s better than being one of the 72% of accounts that were not profitable at FXCM in Q2.

You want help? Let me know, I will help you in your search.

@seandean: what is the minimum capital you need to trade options?

Option prices depreciate very quickly and they have expiration dates. As they get closer to expiration their value depreciates. Options works great for those who know what they are doing otherwise your account gets cleaned out very quickly. I would try an option account for 6 months and try your plays for 6 months. If you can come out positive after 6 months of your trading with fake money then you can try an account with real money. The reason I tell you this is because I learned the hard way before and blew my options account with very big losses. Options works for some but not for all. Just because others can do it does not mean you can do it. Each person out there has their own talent. Find what you are good at and stick with it. You can try but do not try with you real savings. Getting the options right is like beating the dealer at the casino. While it can be done,not everyone can do it. Those that can do it will tell you how easy it is for them but the minute you try you find out how quickly your cash savings vanishes.

Not sure I wanted to try them, so far I have found out that the only place I can make money is on ebay (then lose it on fx). Am just curious how much is needed for a small account in options, i.e. on forex I can do pretty well with 200 before I blow it up at some point.