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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #38,301
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:16pm Oct 17, 2013 2:16pm
It's called contrarianism. However, there are other aspects at play than percentage of held positions, when the UJ reversed at 96.x last week more than 50% were still long. It may have been because they were still holding their positions.
  • #38,302
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:40pm Oct 17, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting iahmedz
{quote} If you thinks 20% profit in a month is good fx is not that bad. Forex trading is bad for those who go for higher gains.. and when trade goes against them they dont accept loss hoping in next minute price will go in their direction.. eventually loose.
100% profit is possible in just 2 week depends in your strategy and depends on your deposit.
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #38,303
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:53pm Oct 17, 2013 2:53pm
so whats the prognosis for friday fellows?
  • #38,304
  • Oct 17, 2013 3:00pm Oct 17, 2013 3:00pm
The H4 base wicks are so magnificent.....
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #38,305
  • Oct 17, 2013 3:13pm Oct 17, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting shivam332
{quote} 100% profit is possible in just 2 week depends in your strategy and depends on your deposit.
Hehe I got 15 euros bonus from one broker and I kept doubling it evey week for one month. So it is possible. But I never tried my this strategy with my own invested funds as they are not just 15... lol
  • #38,306
  • Oct 17, 2013 3:20pm Oct 17, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting iahmedz
{quote} Hehe I got 15 euros bonus from one broker and I kept doubling it evey week for one month. So it is possible. But I never tried my this strategy with my own invested funds as they are not just 15... lol
LOL I do with my own investment but smartly and carefully!
Yeah, I did that before! no deposit bonus ($100USD) made $1,000 and lost all lol.
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #38,307
  • Oct 17, 2013 3:23pm Oct 17, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting kweiss10
i hate these moments where u cant really tell which way this is heading. The UJ is remaining low with hardly any buyers above 98
This is when you learn to sit on your hands trading.................
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #38,308
  • Oct 17, 2013 3:58pm Oct 17, 2013 3:58pm
Wow huge bearish overlapping daily bar in some circles that's a downward movement
  • #38,309
  • Oct 17, 2013 4:02pm Oct 17, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} All you need is 1 opportunity once a month and every month will have that one window opportunity. When you try to make more they take you to the cleaners. Best to just wait for that one opportunity and only play it once a month. One proper 1% drop like today and you can double your money. Even a proper 1% gain will double your money. Never safe to enter in the middle as it would be gambling.

So u are saying u know when the big bullish or bearish bar move will occur?
  • #38,310
  • Oct 17, 2013 4:03pm Oct 17, 2013 4:03pm
UJ will test 88.xx eventually.. Despite all the drama in the 101 -94 range, technically its in the bearich correction. And it confirms overal USD weakness across the board.
69
  • #38,311
  • Edited 5:05pm Oct 17, 2013 4:05pm | Edited 5:05pm
Yes it will test 88.x but not before it tests 105.x. This downward wave is the corrective corollary to last week's upward wave. With that being said this wave will still go down a bit before it goes up.

edit 3:06 PST: was that the beginning of the surge up?
  • #38,312
  • Oct 17, 2013 5:12pm Oct 17, 2013 5:12pm
Hope so!
Long .96
  • #38,313
  • Oct 17, 2013 6:31pm Oct 17, 2013 6:31pm
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} So u are saying u know when the big bullish or bearish bar move will occur?
I would just book profits at +|-1% just to be safe because you never know ow how long that bar will go up or down after before bouncing back one way or another like it just did now. If you enter then trying to catch a bounce you could get screwed by the big boys with a big move up or down as you chase looking for a small profit. Safe bet is to forget about the little moves and wait for the single monthly movement ones like the one we just had. Within another few weeks I am sure we will see another opportunity arise to profit again.

would be quite hard to call when bounce would stop now.
  • #38,314
  • Oct 17, 2013 7:51pm Oct 17, 2013 7:51pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} All you need is 1 opportunity once a month and every month will have that one window opportunity. When you try to make more they take you to the cleaners. Best to just wait for that one opportunity and only play it once a month. One proper 1% drop like today and you can double your money. Even a proper 1% gain will double your money. Never safe to enter in the middle as it would be gambling.
Quoting stylinex
{quote}[highlight=#f4f6f9][color=#000000][font=Verdana]I would just book profits at +|-1% just to be safe because you never know ow how long that bar will go up or down after before bouncing back one way or another like it just did now. If you enter then trying to catch a bounce you could get screwed by the big boys with a big move up or down as you chase looking for a small profit. Safe bet is to forget about the little moves and wait for the single monthly movement ones like the one we just had. Within another few weeks I am sure we will see another...
That's basically the way I trade. There're actually about 2-5 safe bets per week which gives 100 to 200 pips movement, depending on the week how the movements develop. Definition of safe bets : less than 35 pips sl. So risk/reward ratio is 35/100 or 1:3 or higher. In most instance, the sl is under 20 pips.

UJ is not necessary the pair to give the safe bet with high returns. In the initial stage of this movement UJ led, the second half of the move gu or uchf is the better pair.
  • #38,315
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:33pm Oct 17, 2013 8:33pm
short
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #38,316
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:36pm Oct 17, 2013 8:36pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} {quote} That's basically the way I trade. There're actually about 2-5 safe bets per week which gives 100 to 200 pips movement, depending on the week how the movements develop. Definition of safe bets : less than 35 pips sl. So risk/reward ratio is 35/100 or 1:3 or higher. In most instance, the sl is under 20 pips. UJ is not necessary the pair to give the safe bet with high returns. In the initial stage of this movement UJ led, the second half of the move gu or uchf is the better pair.
To enter now as an example would be very risky as it could easily bounce or basically get milked back up to around 98.4 or just continue to tank down from here. Flip of a coin now if you ask me. I am out and will await for next opportunity to arise.
  • #38,317
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:40pm Oct 17, 2013 8:40pm
UJ above 98 now, I hope we'll never see sub 98 level again in this life. I know hope is the last thing that I need in trading but I'm human after all
So go UJ and never come back here again.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,318
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:44pm Oct 17, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} To enter now as an example would be very risky as it could easily bounce or basically get milked back up to around 98.4 or just continue to tank down from here. Flip of a coin now if you ask me. I am out and will await for next opportunity to arise.
Exactly. Most traders are asking this 2 questions - 1a. Is this the right moment to short or 1b will go up a little higher to 98.25-40 to short? 2. Is this the turning point for an upside movement ?

If you're looking to short, stylinex has just described it, the risk/reward is not worth it - perfect example of sitting on your hands. For those who wish to long, wait for the market to come to you, it will.


Edit : If you want to know what this market is waiting for ? It's waiting for GU and Uchf to mount another attack on the dollar prolly after London open.
  • #38,319
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:49pm Oct 17, 2013 8:49pm
Nikkei is doing fine right now, that's a good support for UJ if it stays that way.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,320
  • Oct 17, 2013 10:55pm Oct 17, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} Exactly. Most traders are asking this 2 questions - 1a. Is this the right moment to short or 1b will go up a little higher to 98.25-40 to short? 2. Is this the turning point for an upside movement ? If you're looking to short, stylinex has just described it, the risk/reward is not worth it - perfect example of sitting on your hands. For those who wish to long, wait for the market to come to you, it will. Edit : If you want to know what this market is waiting for ? It's waiting for GU and Uchf to mount another attack on the dollar prolly...


May I suggest you start trading (as in selling) options and move away from spot (long and short) altogether?

I profit when the market goes nowhere, which it has done for months now, and would profit even further if the market “comes to you” on the downside to go long, and in addition to that, would profit further if the market "comes to you” on the upside to go short. How do you like that for risk/reward?

Traders holding positions “hoping” for 105 or 88 on pure speculative trades are either going to get killed on a move in the opposite direction because your over leveraged, or when it does hits these targets, your so underleveraged that the “big trade” makes only a marginal difference in your account.

I think, based on seeing most of you joined the site mid/late 2012 that you consider the move from Nov 2012 to May 2013 as normal. It was not, and will not repeat that cycle, potentially for years or decades to come.

Remember late May? The huge crash in the Nikkei and USD/JPY, there was a mini-bubble in both, it was burst by a combination of bad Chinese data and the first mentioning of Fed tapering.

If we hit 105 or 110 in USD/JPY that represents maybe another 30-40% rise in the Nikkei. Hey, I’m long Nikkei and would love that, but it’s just not going to happen. I’ve already been selling Nikkei options to profit on the months long range game in that too, on top of being “lightly” long in the futures.

I didn’t join the site to put you down, I joined to post my trades and provide some commentary (go look at my history). I still see some of the weirdest and most outrageous posts ever here – it makes me wonder, but then I guess it doesn’t, I’m that “one” who’s rigged the market and taking your money.

Thank you kindly.
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