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  • #845,021
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:00pm Oct 17, 2013 1:00pm
Quoting Yoshimura
{quote} Target the 1.40 on the eurus...it is not to see pink elephants... It is easily accessible with the US issue and its uncertainties... without problem. Not in a straight line, we will not waste our time with unnecessary discussions...but for the end of the year we will have.

You are too dogmatic in your assertion considering FX changes as quickly as clouds change at times.
With assumed Euro prices at 1.38-40 export market if any left will suffer even more.This is not a good news for struggling economy.I am certain Draghi will see to it that Euro does not get out of reach.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #845,022
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:04pm Oct 17, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} You are too dogmatic in your assertion considering FX changes as quickly as clouds change at times. With assumed Euro prices at 1.38-40 export market if any left will suffer even more.This is not a good news for struggling economy.I am certain Draghi will see to it that Euro does not get out of reach.
if I remember right, the drop from 3700 was Draghi's....
  • #845,023
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:06pm Oct 17, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Here is a trade Goldman Sachs will be recommending in the next few days : Buy Euro to target 1.42 with a stop lose 1.28 ... ( They did it last year, why cutting a profitable habit. Problem is , last year they target 1.38 while spot at 1.36 and price never made it their )
I pay no attention to analyses at the great preachers of the economy...US or European.

Read their analysis or think of predicting the future in the entrails of chickens... it's the same thing.
If I read them... This is just to pass the time.
  • #845,024
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:09pm Oct 17, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting attila
{quote} if I remember right, the drop from 3700 was Draghi's....
Do you remember what it was about?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #845,025
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:11pm Oct 17, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Do you remember what it was about?
I really don't remember but I'm pretty sure it was him.
  • #845,026
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:14pm Oct 17, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting attila
{quote} I really don't remember but I'm pretty sure it was him.
What i remember last year , while Euro was stuck in a range between 1.35 - 1.34 - a German official said the Euro was trading at a dangerous levels ( Price plunged 100 pips early Sydney trading ), then Dragni replied few days later it was at historical average. Later on , the price rallied on a Goldman sachs recommendation trade ( the 1.38 ). Price was trading at 1.36 ....

that's what i remember happening !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #845,027
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:18pm Oct 17, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} What i remember last year , while Euro was stuck in a range between 1.35 - 1.34 - a German official said the Euro was trading at a dangerous levels ( Price plunged 100 pips early Sydney trading ), then Dragni replied few days later it was at historical average. Later on , the price rallied on a Goldman sachs recommendation trade ( the 1.38 ). Price was trading at 1.36 .... that's what i remember happening !
The Feb 1st 2013 top is what I'm referring to..
  • #845,028
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:22pm Oct 17, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting attila
{quote} The Feb 1st 2013 top is what I'm referring to..
http://www.businessweek.com/articles...he-strong-euro
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #845,029
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:24pm Oct 17, 2013 1:24pm
Quoting Yoshimura
{quote} I pay no attention to analyses at the great preachers of the economy...US or European. Read their analysis or think of predicting the future in the entrails of chickens... it's the same thing. If I read them... This is just to pass the time.

You have a bias and its fine we all do but you are predicting Euro to 1.40 (even though it seems other people predications equal to "chicken entrails" to you)
Someone who does not pay attention to economy and targets such numbers is bewildering to me.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #845,030
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:27pm Oct 17, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} http://www.businessweek.com/articles...he-strong-euro


Thanks for posting
"In other words, if the euro gets too strong, it will hurt economic growth in the 17-nation euro zone and increase the risk of too-low inflation or even deflation. Those are legitimate concerns."

With 17-27% unemployment Euro zone will not get much of growth until 2017 High Euro will guarantee to add more people to jobless list.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #845,031
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:36pm Oct 17, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} http://www.businessweek.com/articles...he-strong-euro

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

if I recall corectly , market had already turned back then
and at the right level too
  • #845,032
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:43pm Oct 17, 2013 1:43pm
Well... Euro was at 1.60 before the crisis, and during the crisis could easily climb back twice to 1.50. Fundamentally the US shutdown and the need for raise show a very negative picture, lot of investors lost trust (means the begin of searching safer reserve instruments), and countries have been downgraded for a lot less then this event. Chine (can we say one of the empires funding US?) also lost trust that could lead a serious change in today's tendencies. Simple the fact that there was a very close chance of US default means that the counrty is (was?) nearly broke, and only another dept raise could keep it alive... for a while.

The formations on weekly shows an easy run up to 1.40, even 1.42 before any resistance, even if I do not trust in any formation but the price, it has a strong bullish bias. Let's see the market decide the faith of the currency.
  • #845,033
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:51pm Oct 17, 2013 1:51pm
buy stop eur-usd
1.3690 tp 1.3800
  • #845,034
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:58pm Oct 17, 2013 1:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} lets c if this h gives a -3647 close,,
If we get lucky, we get 3739/40 before NY goes home. Paused at the LM to the pipette here.
Attached Image
  • #845,035
  • Edited 2:52pm Oct 17, 2013 2:00pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting Davit
I am confidently Bearish Trick is to hold few weeks or few months.Things will change.Upside is limited because fundamentally Euro zone is in shitier position. Think longer term if you are buying USD. I see it as an opportunity rather calamity. GU short EU Short Kiwi Short USD/CHF Long
Davit Hi. I agree with you. But. Big, bold BUT. Are fundamentals really important factors those days? What I see is a big disconnection between markets and fundamentals. I do not see any fundamental reason why EURO is not in parity with USD. Yes I know one can argue that USA is in a deeper shit like EU. I do not think so.

The beauty of disconection:
-----------------------
UK national debt as % of GDP: 69.64%
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/de.../unitedkingdom

CANADA national debt as % of GDP: 35.89%
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/canada

Fundamentally CANADA is doing very well but markets see it differently.

-----------------------------

GREECE national debt as % of GDP: 198.31% (ooooh holy jesus shit!!)
SPAIN national debt as % of GDP: 76.27%
PORTUGAL national debt as % of GDP: 113.26%
ITALY national debt as % of GDP: 139.83%

Good luck my friend.
  • #845,036
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:05pm Oct 17, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting hadox
{quote} the daily closed above the zone again, prolly some opportunities near yd low if one is bullish and same song with the euro I guess.. anyway.. {quote} done.. next area of interrest I have is at 0.964x .. anyway 1. target reached - looking for the next target or be+
au aiming for the next resistance at 0.972x..

euro tested the top at 1.364x - looking for a test of 1.374x..

cable got to the 1. zone at the top - waiting to se the reaction at the higher ones before closing..

a lot can happen though, anyway lets see..
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Patience is a virtue...
  • #845,037
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:08pm Oct 17, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting Davit
I am confidently Bearish Trick is to hold few weeks or few months.Things will change.Upside is limited because fundamentally Euro zone is in shitier position. Think longer term if you are buying USD. I see it as an opportunity rather calamity. GU short EU Short Kiwi Short USD/CHF Long
Hi Davit !

Nothing more to add.......
Short and precise observation
  • #845,038
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:14pm Oct 17, 2013 2:14pm
.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #845,039
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:35pm Oct 17, 2013 2:35pm
dow jones dollar. there are 3 thick white lines. the dollar bounced twice at the middle line. not likely it wont bounce at the bottom line.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #845,040
  • Edited 2:53pm Oct 17, 2013 2:43pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting ffleo
. dow needs to test 15400
Still watching 15400 level for dow.

atm dow is near resistance 15400. spx is at yearly high.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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