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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #70,381
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:07am Oct 16, 2013 3:07am
Look at that Kiwi go.

Here's an animated short about a Kiwi who wanted to fly at least once before he died

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,382
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:57am Oct 16, 2013 3:57am
This should be interesting today.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,383
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:21am Oct 16, 2013 4:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
This should be interesting today. {image}
Well, that was a non-event
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Draghi Speaks Tonight...
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,384
  • Oct 16, 2013 7:36am Oct 16, 2013 7:36am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Heh... I posted two scenarios yesterday, neither of them worked. The market makers decided to play a third one... bearish false breakout trap. Price easily broke AB resistance line and returned quickly back below the line. Probably many bears stop losses were hunted. And today? I thought we'll eventually reach 1.34600... but it stopped... Anybody noticed a new channel forming? (chart below) What does it mean for you guys? Any predictions where is the next leg? {image}
yes ..this channel is possible ...
I thought 3504 was going to be the key ...
but so far without results to target 3400/60 .....

I do not know what else to say .. I'll wait..
  • #70,385
  • Oct 16, 2013 7:46am Oct 16, 2013 7:46am
in my plan.
if the price not hit 3650..
my target is 3280..
  • #70,386
  • Oct 16, 2013 8:50am Oct 16, 2013 8:50am
US Senate negotiators 'very close' to announcing a deal on debt: Report
U.S. Senate negotiators are "very close" to announcing a deal on extending the debt ceiling, Reuters reported Wednesday.
The Senate is likely to move "quickly" to pass a fiscal debt deal currently being negotiated, a Senate aide said. Senate leaders are in talks with House leaders to find a way to win fast passage of the deal in both chambers.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100968089
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,387
  • Edited 9:21am Oct 16, 2013 8:55am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The next step you will not see in the charts. It will be a binary move as follows: US debt limit deal = USD bullish No US debt deal = USD mayhem
it should be the otherway round isn't it PT? the logic is if and when they reach debt limit deal,risk seeking will be on and money will move out of usd into risky assets and usd will go down but if no deal then lot of uncertainty and risk aversion and money will move into usd,chf and yen, their by strengthening them.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #70,388
  • Oct 16, 2013 9:46am Oct 16, 2013 9:46am
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} it should be the otherway round isn't it PT? the logic is if and when they reach debt limit deal,risk seeking will be on and money will move out of usd into risky assets and usd will go down but if no deal then lot of uncertainty and risk aversion and money will move into usd,chf and yen, their by strengthening them.

I think you make a good point. But it's wise to let the dollar knee jerk its way out in the short term. In the grand scheme of things nothing has changed and taper in Oct is very unlikely. Let's see how far the dollar rallies (against eur and gbp). The fact that AUD is actually higher proves your point even more.
  • #70,389
  • Oct 16, 2013 10:06am Oct 16, 2013 10:06am
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} it should be the otherway round isn't it PT? the logic is if and when they reach debt limit deal,risk seeking will be on and money will move out of usd into risky assets and usd will go down but if no deal then lot of uncertainty and risk aversion and money will move into usd,chf and yen, their by strengthening them.

Quoting lumesh
{quote} I think you make a good point. But it's wise to let the dollar knee jerk its way out in the short term. In the grand scheme of things nothing has changed and taper in Oct is very unlikely. Let's see how far the dollar rallies (against eur and gbp). The fact that AUD is actually higher proves your point even more.

Note the key words in my post

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The next step you will not see in the charts. It will be a binary move as follows: US debt limit deal = USD bullish No US debt deal = USD mayhem
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,390
  • Oct 16, 2013 10:36am Oct 16, 2013 10:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} Note the key words in my post {quote}

i don't understand...

you mean "knee jerk" reaction just like i said ?
  • #70,391
  • Oct 16, 2013 10:51am Oct 16, 2013 10:51am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} I think you make a good point. But it's wise to let the dollar knee jerk its way out in the short term. In the grand scheme of things nothing has changed and taper in Oct is very unlikely. Let's see how far the dollar rallies (against eur and gbp). The fact that AUD is actually higher proves your point even more.
if u look at aud and copper charts,one get the feeling that they just bounce from their support levels.that to me is market were in risk aversion for some time and finding the bottom,and also the fact that vix at the level of 15 which is very near the start of trend but these will take time and my feeling is market will be sideways for some time with lot of volatility.i think china is main thing to keep an eye and they r in the process of cooling their market.
ps.my reference point for the above points is weekly and daily chart price action.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #70,392
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:15pm Oct 16, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} i don't understand... you mean "knee jerk" reaction just like i said ?
No, not knee-jerk. Just repricing of the risk premia placed on a possible US default. Once that is repriced, then we can go back to focusing on QE4EVA
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,393
  • Oct 16, 2013 11:12pm Oct 16, 2013 11:12pm
Quiet post-Deal session in Asia. I see holding patterns (triangles) forming in most pairs, so I guess Asia is waiting to see what Europe and the USA do next. Nothing to trade in my charts right now, so heading out for a swim before the European session.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,394
  • Oct 17, 2013 3:17am Oct 17, 2013 3:17am
It was a nice move north so far. I hope it stops very soon, although it looks like, its going to test the Feb high at 1.37xx area
  • #70,395
  • Oct 17, 2013 6:56am Oct 17, 2013 6:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The next step you will not see in the charts. It will be a binary move as follows: US debt limit deal = USD bullish No US debt deal = USD mayhem
Hey guys, PT...
Do you guys have any reasonable explanation to what has happened to USD today?
In many different press comments I read that "yes, dollar should strengthen, but investors were disappointed"...
What the heck this means?
Then a Chinese rating agency downgrade USA and this has another huge impact on EUDUSD?
If tomorrow some rating agency form Kongo or Vietnam downgrade US, will we have 1.40 by the end of the month?
This all ratings is a big joke...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #70,396
  • Oct 17, 2013 7:11am Oct 17, 2013 7:11am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey guys, PT... Do you guys have any reasonable explanation to what has happened to USD today? In many different press comments I read that "yes, dollar should strengthen, but investors were disappointed"... What the heck this means? Then a Chinese rating agency downgrade USA and this has another huge impact on EUDUSD? If tomorrow some rating agency form Kongo or Vietnam downgrade US, will we have 1.40 by the end of the month? This all ratings is a big joke...
The Chinese rating agency is not like the Zimbabwe rating agency (if it even has one)
Remember that China hold a massive amount of US paper, so yes the Chinese rating agency matters a lot.

Besides the ratings downgrade, I think that today's USD bashing is more related to a rout in US treasury notes that are due to mature at the next debt ceiling deadline.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,397
  • Oct 17, 2013 7:52am Oct 17, 2013 7:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The Chinese rating agency is not like the Zimbabwe rating agency (if it even has one) Remember that China hold a massive amount of US paper, so yes the Chinese rating agency matters a lot. Besides the ratings downgrade, I think that today's USD bashing is more related to a rout in US treasury notes that are due to mature at the next debt ceiling deadline.
If it's so effect should vanish in few days.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #70,398
  • Oct 17, 2013 7:53am Oct 17, 2013 7:53am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} If it's so effect should vanish in few days.
Probably not even that long. The USD lost a lot today. I think it's very close to done for now. Tomorrow will confirm one way or the other.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,399
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:22am Oct 17, 2013 8:22am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey guys, PT... Do you guys have any reasonable explanation to what has happened to USD today? In many different press comments I read that "yes, dollar should strengthen, but investors were disappointed"... What the heck this means? Then a Chinese rating agency downgrade USA and this has another huge impact on EUDUSD? If tomorrow some rating agency form Kongo or Vietnam downgrade US, will we have 1.40 by the end of the month? This all ratings is a big joke...

Why would dollar strenghten ?? Give me one reason ?

We had the knee jerk rally in dollar due to "the deal" and now everything is just like fundamentals point (fundamentals that matter)...
  • #70,400
  • Oct 17, 2013 9:00am Oct 17, 2013 9:00am
I think after a long time the fundamentals and technical's are in harmony. Technically we should have been Bullish this pair above 1.3450 and 1.3710 is still a short term target with 1.3850 coming in to medium term, long term target can still reach 1.40 and higher, providing 1.3450 is not broken.

I posted some weeks ago my bullishness on this pair and i feel we still have some more upside to go before a reversal, and a reversal will not just happen, we will likely range for a week or 2 once the top is formed.

Along with the shutdown it will take some time for the real economic number to actually reflect whats really happening in the US and this will be more true for the NFP, when finally released next month.
Cheers!!
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