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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #70,361
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:48am Oct 14, 2013 9:48am
Quoting magicgate
{quote} Yep, but today is a holiday in US and some other countries, so I thought same irrational gaps&traps could be a signal to some rational moves It makes sense for my pendulum tactic. As of now (if nothing else comes to us this week) I expect USD starts to become stronger, imo safety pairs are 1.USDSHF, 2.EURUSD, 3.GBPUSD Today I prefer the first pair and hope to start shorting others from tommorow or later. Btw I'm sure you saw AUDNZD gap today. This pair could have really sweet retrace soon, another leg to 1.130x - 1.125x zone and I'll load...
I added another long at 1.1302 today with a 7 pip stop at 1.1295
Plus I am still holding 20% of my long from 1.1260

Quoting PipTrapper
Added another Long AUD/NZD @ 1.1302
SL @ 1.1295
1st Target @ 1.1765
2nd Target @ 1.1939
AUDNZDCALL
Also still holding 2nd October long position from 1.1260
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,362
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:14am Oct 14, 2013 10:14am
The OECD has just released their YoY inflation figures for August 2013

  1. G20 countries 3.0% vs 3.2% in July
  2. EU 1.5% from 1.7%
  3. EZ 1.3% from 1.6%
  4. France 1.0% vs 1.2% prior
  5. Italy 1.2% unch
  6. Germany 1.6% vs 1.9% prior
  7. UK 2.7% vs 2.8%
  8. US 1.5% from 2.0%
  9. China 2.6% vs 2.7%

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,363
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:30am Oct 14, 2013 10:30am
A blast from the past... Survey of experts.
Even experts can't get it right.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BWi6Jy0CAAAafPU.jpg Size: 38 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,364
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:34am Oct 14, 2013 10:34am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} it may collect the stops abv .3710/.3738,,and go south...
Hey Pablo...
Yes, it can... BUT this time of trading belongs to fundamentalists... so this week will be driven by NEWS.
I think all technical analysis will work fine until the first minute BLOOMBERG or CNN announces US debt agreement or... USA gone bankrupt (R.I.P.),
next fifteen minutes we'll see roller coaster ride with price either up and down...
Any support/resistance zones, Fibonacci, trend-lines do not exist when fundamentalists having their fun time
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #70,365
  • Oct 14, 2013 11:15am Oct 14, 2013 11:15am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey Pablo... Yes, it can... BUT this time of trading belongs to fundamentalists... so this week will be driven by NEWS. I think all technical analysis will work fine until the first minute BLOOMBERG or CNN announces US debt agreement or... USA gone bankrupt (R.I.P.), next fifteen minutes we'll see roller coaster ride with price either up and down... Any support/resistance zones, Fibonacci, trend-lines do not exist when fundamentalists having their fun time
it will be a REAL BIG YO YO for a bid..I would sell the upswing if in front of the screen when it happens...
  • #70,366
  • Oct 14, 2013 11:31am Oct 14, 2013 11:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
A blast from the past... Survey of experts. Even experts can't get it right. {image}
that is why the "Experts" write....and the "Traders" trade i suppose...
  • #70,367
  • Oct 14, 2013 1:33pm Oct 14, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Hey Pablo... Yes, it can... BUT this time of trading belongs to fundamentalists... so this week will be driven by NEWS. I think all technical analysis will work fine until the first minute BLOOMBERG or CNN announces US debt agreement or... USA gone bankrupt (R.I.P.), next fifteen minutes we'll see roller coaster ride with price either up and down... Any support/resistance zones, Fibonacci, trend-lines do not exist when fundamentalists having their fun time
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,368
  • Oct 14, 2013 1:33pm Oct 14, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} that is why the "Experts" write....and the "Traders" trade i suppose...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,369
  • Oct 14, 2013 7:38pm Oct 14, 2013 7:38pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I added another long at 1.1302 today with a 7 pip stop at 1.1295 Plus I am still holding 20% of my long from 1.1260 {quote}
AUDNZD is on it's way from here................IMO
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,370
  • Oct 15, 2013 5:36am Oct 15, 2013 5:36am
Here is a post I made in the news section yesterday about the Euro project, so I thought I would share it here also.

The Euro, to the peripheral nations, was like a highly addictive drug. It meant much lower borrowing costs than what they had under their legacy currencies and the ECB provided as much liquidity as they wanted. The bond market perceived their paper as good (or at least almost as good) as German paper, so funding was limitless... and just like the pigs they were about it, it took them straight to the slaughterhouse holding pen. Now the only way to revert to that legacy currency is to actually enter the slaughterhouse and get "processed". Therefore, the holding pen is a better option.

In a few words, the Euro project was only a success because the peripheral nations are trapped in it. They have no exit possibilities without certain death.

"Welcome to the Hotel California. We are all just prisoners here of our own device. We are programmed to receive. You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave."

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,371
  • Oct 15, 2013 6:53am Oct 15, 2013 6:53am
Quoting halkins
Hi All... Anybody dare to predict Euro market before deadline on October 17th? I think they (US Congress) will get into some agreement before Wednesday, THEY MUST DO SO, and this may draw EURUSD down even 100-200 pips. FOR NOW my plan is going SHORT as long as we DO NOT BREAK "AB" resistance line (on my chart). Alternatively when "AB" breaks, I have some BUY LIMIT orders above with 1.37 targets. Next two days could be very choppy and unpredictable. I do not want to expose myself for too much risk, be careful. How do you think guys, is...
Heh... I posted two scenarios yesterday, neither of them worked.
The market makers decided to play a third one... bearish false breakout trap.
Price easily broke AB resistance line and returned quickly back below the line.
Probably many bears stop losses were hunted.

And today?
I thought we'll eventually reach 1.34600... but it stopped...
Anybody noticed a new channel forming? (chart below)
What does it mean for you guys? Any predictions where is the next leg?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 55 KB
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #70,372
  • Oct 15, 2013 6:57am Oct 15, 2013 6:57am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Heh... I posted two scenarios yesterday, neither of them worked. The market makers decided to play a third one... bearish false breakout trap. Price easily broke AB resistance line and returned quickly back below the line. Probably many bears stop losses were hunted. And today? I thought we'll eventually reach 1.34600... but it stopped... Anybody noticed a new channel forming? What does it mean for you guys? Any predictions where is the next leg? {image}
The next step you will not see in the charts.
It will be a binary move as follows:

US debt limit deal = USD bullish
No US debt deal = USD mayhem
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,373
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:51pm Oct 15, 2013 3:51pm
Fitch places US credit rating on negative watch. Maintains AAA rating for now. Debt limit concerns cited as reasons. DC clowns take notice.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,374
  • Oct 15, 2013 4:10pm Oct 15, 2013 4:10pm
curious to see how the Asian markets digest this
  • #70,375
  • Oct 15, 2013 4:34pm Oct 15, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting neuron
curious to see how the Asian markets digest this
They might dump a truckload of USDs if they have any excess left to dump... which I doubt.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,376
  • Oct 15, 2013 5:06pm Oct 15, 2013 5:06pm
Hi, I would've better stayed out till 17th, but I got trapped selling under 1.35 this morning. So I am on the wind. God bless America!
Per aspera ad astra
  • #70,377
  • Oct 15, 2013 6:26pm Oct 15, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} They might dump a truckload of USDs if they have any excess left to dump... which I doubt.
that's what i was thinking. currently short USDJPY. if they have excess...good question, i want 97.25 to trade but the next couple days may be priced in
  • #70,378
  • Oct 15, 2013 6:57pm Oct 15, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting neuron
{quote} that's what i was thinking. currently short USDJPY. if they have excess...good question, i want 97.25 to trade but the next couple days may be priced in
Well there goes that idea lol
  • #70,379
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:14pm Oct 15, 2013 8:14pm
Inserted Video
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,380
  • Oct 16, 2013 2:53am Oct 16, 2013 2:53am
213 Years Of Sovereign Yields And Defaults
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...s-and-defaults
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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