USD/JPY Discussion

appreciate your efforts

new high established

Want to get a good entry to buy! Hopping for small pullback. Daily looks bullish to me, but all i'm looking for is 30 - 40 pip (to 99 area)

Looking to get in short at 98.941, a little above a daily resistance pivot and an untested sell off area which produced a new low, just under a whole number also.

27 pip stop, r:r 1:1.

This level also lines up well on the higher timeframes, 12hour and daily charts, just under the opening price of that bearish candle at the start of the downmove. See the bottom chart. I will be very surprised if there isn't a bounce down from this area.

Im just buying pull backs at the moment. Not even bothering to short it.

Fall time

98.72/76 would be nice to go down

what do you mean ?

just don't like flat pattern, in this area

I lost mountains of money when I first started because I was countering trends. Trend is your friend so don't fight it.

Also knowing if you should buy a pull back or did the trend reverse. Feel the market, be one with the market and follow big money..

New Positions:

SLD 2 NOV08 0.0098 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000120
SLD 2 NOV08 0.01055 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000130

Existing Positions:

SLD 2 OCT18 0.01 Put Fut. Option (6J3) 0.0000080
SLD 2 OCT18 0.0104 Call Fut. Option (6J3) 0.0000060

Position Summary:

My existing position remains open, and not much has happened over the last few days to change it – other than Theta loss which is net positive for my position (I’m short options).

My new position is gearing up for what seems to be an imminent resolution to both the US debt ceiling and government shutdown. I believe this; along with Japanese parliament resuming for their extraordinary session will restart a medium term trend in USD/JPY.

My recent shorter term positions, basically lasting 8 days each exploited the range of about 101 – 97 that only broke slightly to the downside, but was limited and ran right back up. I don’t see this strategy performing well risk/reward-wise moving forward.

I’m moving out to approximately 26 days, just over 3 times the duration of my recent range exploiting positions. Now by doing this I don’t quit the range exploitation game altogether, it’s just not the primary strategy anymore. Theta loss still exists (as it exists for all options) and because I’m short options it results in being net positive to my position.

I will look to ladder this position out on a weekly basis, probably opening new short option positions each Monday morning (Japan time) after the Nikkei opens. The result is, if all goes well (and I’m always ready to make adjustments as needed) predicable weekly income as each Friday represents an expiry, and at its peak efficiency would have my account short 4 weeks’ worth of option positions.

the personal judgment of the pairs I Forex USD / JPY: preparation to adjust to an end. It is will accumulate in passing a short period of time and continue its journey go to target of 99. 050
following chart shows us the correction has stopped:

thanks bud it's good to feel appreciated.

This is going to drop.

The highs at the beginning of the day were the end of the trend.

got my eye on 98.33 for a bounce

Looks good, it may not go down that far though....

Got my eye on a long at 08:30 GMT, will keep watching.

I favor your comment. I am seeing 98.4 current pricing area as a Pivoting point... I sees it as a level filling up with strength for the upcoming bullish move.

oh well, was hoping for a little fake out to get me in, closest was 9835.

You are right perhaps, and I am an hour late it seems (and was in the shower ). ...damn

Late better than never... At least you are back now....

What happened at 8:30?