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Trading Made Simple

  • #26,321
  • Oct 14, 2013 11:30am Oct 14, 2013 11:30am
dogal3x,

Look at this gbp/usd 1 hour chart.

See how price is hanging around the round number?
That is not by accident, "they" know exactly where it is...

snarlyjack
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmh1.png Size: 76 KB
  • #26,322
  • Oct 14, 2013 11:57am Oct 14, 2013 11:57am
Quoting Phx62
{quote} Munirpt, So sorry to hear about your accident!!!! Here is to a quick recovery with little pain and full use of your hands. The answer you gave to Emmanuel's question is golden.....newbies, take that answer and analyse it carefully....backtest and forward test the principles that Munir pointed out. What he described is the key to this TMS system!!! He explained how to use price action and the TDI to enter successful trades. Hang in there Munirpt.......
Hi Phx62,

Can you share how you apply this into your trading plan? I was checked out some trades on H1 TF and I did not see any principles for those trade you had taken... Or do you analyze this concept on M15?
Thank you!
  • #26,323
  • Oct 14, 2013 12:01pm Oct 14, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting snarlyjack
dogal3x, Look at this gbp/usd 1 hour chart. See how price is hanging around the round number? That is not by accident, "they" know exactly where it is... snarlyjack {image}
Thx for the info very informative
"The trend is your friend, until the end, when it bends"
  • #26,324
  • Oct 14, 2013 1:21pm Oct 14, 2013 1:21pm
Here is another example for you.

The aud/usd 15 minute & 1 hour.

It exactly hit the round number, it's uncanny...

You can profit from this!

snarlyjack
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdmm15.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdmh1.png Size: 81 KB
  • #26,325
  • Oct 14, 2013 1:52pm Oct 14, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting snarlyjack
Here is another example for you. The aud/usd 15 minute & 1 hour. It exactly hit the round number, it's uncanny... You can profit from this! snarlyjack {image} {image}
Thx again for the heads up
"The trend is your friend, until the end, when it bends"
  • #26,326
  • Edited 4:49pm Oct 14, 2013 2:10pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting Pervis
{quote} Hi Phx62, Can you share how you apply this into your trading plan? I was checked out some trades on H1 TF and I did not see any principles for those trade you had taken... Or do you analyze this concept on M15? Thank you!
What Munir was referring to is trades taken with the trend. The principles he outlined give any trader a higher probability of successful trades when these principles are followed. When the price trend and the TDI agree, one can gain lots of pips. An aggressive trader may trade with the trend and countertrend trades. A more conservative trader will only trade with the trend. A couple of posts ago, SnarlyJack indicated he prefers to trade with the trend. Every trader must determine what works best for them.
Munir wrote:
"A - price made LL (trend down) - TDI crossed up, but below MBL (not strong signal)
B - price made LH (trend down) - TDI crossed down, but above MBL (not a strong signal)
C - price made HL (trend up) - TDI crossed up, above MBL (strong signal)
what defines TDI trend is the MBL.
what defines price trend is swing cycles(HH,HL,LL,LH).
whenever price trend and TDI trend are in harmony = $$$$$"
In answer to your question, I trade based on what I see on the H1 charts. I have a small M15 chart open on my screen just to spot possible changes in trend but all my decisions are based on the H1. The decisions I make include my weekly analysis of S&R and trends on the higher time frames, as well. The only exception to taking trades on the H1 is if I am scalping the market for just a few pips.
If you examine the last chart I posted, for the week ending 10-11, and look at the trend from Wednesday thru the end of the week, you can see how applying the principles Munir noted would have gained you many pips. I was able to earn 120 pips on Thursday and Friday on two trades by trading the trend.
Personally, I take trades with the trend but I also take countertrend trades. The HH HL's don't always apply when trading countertrend. However, even with countertrend trades, I watch the MBL and the TDI. If the MBL is below the red and the green crosses over the red on a long trade, and all are above the 50 line, there is a much higher chance that price will reach the targets. If the MBL is above the red or green on a long trade, you have a much smaller chance of reaching TP. Hope this helps......
  • #26,327
  • Oct 14, 2013 2:25pm Oct 14, 2013 2:25pm
eur/jpy h4

just entered long on this trade. the stop loss is last swing low and i will be monitoring the take profit. the tdi has crossed and the trend is up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 28 KB
Come tomorrow, I'll wake up new
  • #26,328
  • Oct 14, 2013 4:11pm Oct 14, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting gsbharaj
eur/jpy h4 just entered long on this trade. the stop loss is last swing low and i will be monitoring the take profit. the tdi has crossed and the trend is up. {image}
EJ has reached a very strong monthly resistance, it is likely that it reverses in the near future, I would be careful with long trades for the time being...
  • #26,329
  • Edited 7:04pm Oct 14, 2013 4:58pm | Edited 7:04pm
In the 100 business days from May 23 up to last Friday 11 October (i.e. not including UK Bank Holidays May 27 and Aug 26), the high or low of the London session (0800 to 1700 British Summer Time (GMT+1)) was set in the first 3 H1 bars of the session the following number of times:

GJ 81
EJ 76
EA 74
EU 65
AU 71
GU 77

If you took out the NFP days and the MBR days, I'm guessing that the percentages would increase.

There seems to be some correlation between the figures and the ADR 14 in the period but I'm fairly sure it's not statistically significant. (You'd need many hundreds of days to confirm it is significant. It's a long time since I did statistics.)

Some of the highs and lows were on days when the market ranged all day or generally didn't go very far.

Look at Phx62's recent post above.

The really interesting first 3 bars of the session are on days where there is strong PA and where the green is in a good position relative to the MBL (and possibly the 50.)

Phx62 has often mentioned how the high or low of the Euro pairs in the London session is set in the first few hours. I wondered how other pairs behaved.

I recommend a look at the position of the green relative to the MBL (and possibly the 50) on Phx62's trades.

Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #26,330
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:47pm Oct 14, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting Kanderpro
In the 100 business days from May 23 up to last Friday 11 October (i.e. not including Aug 26 UK Bank Holiday), the high or low of the London session (0800 to 1700 British Summer Time (GMT+1)) was set in the first 3 H1 bars of the session the following number of times: GJ 81 EJ 76 EA 74 EU 65 AU 71 GU 77 If you took out the NFP days and the MBR days, I'm guessing that the percentages would increase. There seems to be some correlation between the figures and the ADR 14 in the period but I'm fairly sure it's not statistically significant. (You'd need...
Kanderpro,
Excellent work. I did some tests two years ago and others more than three years ago with similar results. My testing showed just a little higher on some pairs and a little lower on others. There are enough times that the high or low is set in the first three hours of London to make it worth finding a way to trade that scenario. I also discovered that price will usually move 3 to 10 candles without changing color or retracing (occasionally small retracements will occur and then the trend will continue), making for some nice long trades. Again.....NICE WORK and thanks for sharing!!!
  • #26,331
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:30pm Oct 14, 2013 6:30pm
Quoting munirpt
thanks a lot friends. {image}
feel better munirpt
  • #26,332
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:37pm Oct 14, 2013 6:37pm
time to start participating in this trhead again
  • #26,333
  • Oct 14, 2013 7:10pm Oct 14, 2013 7:10pm
Quoting Kanderpro
In the 100 business days from May 23 up to last Friday 11 October (i.e. not including UK Bank Holidays May 27 and Aug 26), the high or low of the London session (0800 to 1700 British Summer Time (GMT+1)) was set in the first 3 H1 bars of the session the following number of times: GJ 81 EJ 76 EA 74 EU 65 AU 71 GU 77 If you took out the NFP days and the MBR days, I'm guessing that the percentages would increase. There seems to be some correlation between the figures and the ADR 14 in the period but I'm fairly sure it's not statistically significant....
Kan, an excellent post and thanks for sharing. This is a perfect example of the importance of backtesting for all members that don't feel the significance in drilling down and focusing on certain aspects of looking for an edge.

Well done again. Have a good week.


Erol
  • #26,334
  • Oct 14, 2013 8:19pm Oct 14, 2013 8:19pm
Would this be a good short trade on EURUSD? Am i looking for / at the right things?

TDI just confirmed cross after close of the 2nd candle 16 mins ago and price has appeared to top around this 13540-13600 region and may look to head towards 50% retrace line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2013-10-14 at 8.16.14 PM.png Size: 52 KB
He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.
  • #26,335
  • Oct 14, 2013 8:37pm Oct 14, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting TheDDReport
Would this be a good short trade on EURUSD? Am i looking for / at the right things? TDI just confirmed cross after close of the 2nd candle 16 mins ago and price has appeared to top around this 13540-13600 region and may look to head towards 50% retrace line. {image}
I would give it a go here.. pro traders please help me out on my analysis...

Please refer to the chart that i attached.. its the same chart that you used:
1. Market recently has created a low (1 in the picture)
2. From that low it created a HL, HH, HL and HH.. This shows its going in an uptrend
3. TDI cross is going downwards..

Based on that i think its a low percentage trade... maybe it will be good for scalping.. take small pips and run
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FF test.PNG Size: 204 KB
  • #26,336
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:11am Oct 15, 2013 1:11am
Hello everyone,

Some dirty little secrets,

If you go back and read how Eelfranz traded. Eelfranz was a great trader by the way.
Eelfranz would make his trades on the 4 hour charts. ( He and I live on the west coast
of the U.S.A.) then he would go to bed. He would get up 4 hours later on the next
4 hour candle and check his trade out. And make any adjustments at that time if needed.

Exactly what does that mean?

Once he set his trade and his stop loss he did not mess with the trade. He slept through
the whole thing. What a concept!

So...if your trading on the 1 hour chart (for example). We know that price is going to go
up & down the price bar. I've read that on the 1 hour chart, price will make it's move during
the 1st 15 minutes & the last 15 minutes. And to liquidate out at the open of the next bar.
Or make your new buy on the open of the bar not in the middle of the bar.

Here is a suggestion for you. Look at all the different time charts. Look at the daily,
4 hour & 1 hour charts and get a good feel for where the market is. Find the trend
on the chart you trade (1 hour chart, for example). Once you find the trend, place
your trade. Set your emergency stop. And let the trade run!!! Check the trade 1 hour later.
In other words let the trade breathe. The trade will breathe in & out just like you do.

Then it become a math game. 70% of the time your correct, 30% of the time your wrong.
Let the winners run, cut the losers at the end of the hour or your stop will cut them.
Trading is all about math and %'s. If you fool around with every trade the math & %'s
will never work out. Think math, think %'s, keep track of your winning %'s and
your losing %'s. You need to know exactly what your system will produce in %'s.
To put the odd's in your favor, trade with the trend and let the math take over.

I hope this helps you...

snarlyjack
  • #26,337
  • Edited 2:05am Oct 15, 2013 1:36am | Edited 2:05am
Trades on aussie, TDI crossed red and yellow line, took the two trades when price made HL and breached the LH on hour.... Closed my to aussie trades TDI was above 68 and hocking over and 8th APB!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aus tms.png Size: 56 KB
Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
  • #26,338
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:51am Oct 15, 2013 3:51am
Another trade, GbpJpy had a pullback candle and crossed TDI green over red and yellow!!
Made a HL on the hour.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMS GPY.png Size: 31 KB
Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
  • #26,339
  • Oct 15, 2013 4:31am Oct 15, 2013 4:31am
http://screencast.com/t/INzd7Pz24Ocj eU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #26,340
  • Oct 15, 2013 4:41am Oct 15, 2013 4:41am
Quoting Xaphod
MTF TDI with blue lines set to no color based on a version of the TDI that updates in real time. The previous version is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post4160332 {image} {file} {file}
Excellent coding. With this development would a MTF version of the TMS-Osc Histo be possible.

PG
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