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  • #2,921
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:17pm Oct 14, 2013 5:17pm
.... I love feeder cattle

gfx
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  • #2,922
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:18pm Oct 14, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Bearish this pair, too many bulls about for my liking.
BW

I hear what you are saying. If the sentiment swings too much in one direction the opposite will most likely happen. I see this pair coming out of a triangle pattern on the weekly charts which is more longtermish hence my allowance for a retracement

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,923
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:18pm Oct 14, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting golferfx
.... I love feeder cattle gfx {image}

Mee too GolferFx. Me too

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,924
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:37pm Oct 14, 2013 5:37pm
NY Coffee
(Robusta coffee has a lower margin requirement)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,925
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:07pm Oct 14, 2013 6:07pm
Sugar
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,926
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:31pm Oct 14, 2013 6:31pm
Quoting Olu
Sugar {image}
Thanks for your charts & opinions Olu.
I unloaded part of my sugar today & will dump the rest near resistance.

I'm looking to get long Cocoa on a pullback to previous breakout line. Fundamentals are bullish. I think it'll get through the monthly resistance area it's in now.
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  • #2,927
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:35pm Oct 14, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting srt
I think cotton is set to go higher based upon daily & monthly. Possibly retest recent highs. {image} {image}
UPDATE: support didn't hold on cotton. Now waiting game to see if it can get above resistance again & get above recent swing high. Monthly is still in a tight range.
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  • #2,928
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:48pm Oct 14, 2013 6:48pm
Quoting Olu
Anyone watching the usdjpy? Olu {image}
I want to be bullish too on UJ as I think Abe wants to keep pushing Yen lower but longer-term I'm concerned the US$ could take a hit unless they start doing something about the enormous & fast-growing debt. China is already cutting deals with other countries so they don't have to buy US dollars to make purchases of commodities from other countries. I think this is the beginning of the end of the US$ serving as the reserve currency which would be pretty bearish for US$.
I should probably just trade the chart & not be influenced by the news which creates a bias. Tough to get it out of my system.
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  • #2,929
  • Oct 14, 2013 7:58pm Oct 14, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting Olu
Anyone watching the usdjpy? Olu {image}
the yen will sell off against the USD if there's an equity rally, which there will probably be if/when there's a break in the DC logjam.

I'd bet we see U/J >100 pretty quick in the latter case. (FXY shows yen strength, or the inverse of U/J.)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,930
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:48am Oct 15, 2013 8:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} the yen will sell off against the USD if there's an equity rally, which there will probably be if/when there's a break in the DC logjam. I'd bet we see U/J >100 pretty quick in the latter case. (FXY shows yen strength, or the inverse of U/J.) {image}
Thanks TF

I am bullish the usdjpy but the market conditions have to cooperate. I also like the idea from BY when he said we would see no upside until all the trigger happy bulls have been washed out.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,931
  • Oct 15, 2013 9:10am Oct 15, 2013 9:10am
Quoting srt
{quote} I want to be bullish too on UJ as I think Abe wants to keep pushing Yen lower but longer-term I'm concerned the US$ could take a hit unless they start doing something about the enormous & fast-growing debt. China is already cutting deals with other countries so they don't have to buy US dollars to make purchases of commodities from other countries. I think this is the beginning of the end of the US$ serving as the reserve currency which would be pretty bearish for US$. I should probably just trade the chart & not be influenced by the news...
I hear you srt. Fundamentals are fighting against Technicals here. With all these issues in the US the $ should not be where it is now. With all the euro problems it should not be where it is. With all the problems in the UK here the pound should not be where it is. So which currency is actually where it should be or trending towards where it should be.

The answer to the dilemma above is to trade technically and close your eyes/ears to conflicting Fundys. This is the best time to believe that it is all in the price which is graphically depicted on our charts.

We need to be nimble so that this period does not churn our accounts. Think of a paper shredder that how mistakes shred out accounts. Check out the ranging of the gbpusd lately between the 6000 and 5940 lately nothing more that account shredding for trend traders like me. So I am waiting outside the shredding zone.

Guys thanks for the discussion and contributions on the thread. I am grateful

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,932
  • Oct 15, 2013 9:13am Oct 15, 2013 9:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} the yen will sell off against the USD if there's an equity rally, which there will probably be if/when there's a break in the DC logjam. I'd bet we see U/J >100 pretty quick in the latter case. (FXY shows yen strength, or the inverse of U/J.) {image}
My first TP on UJ buy is just below 100. The second is just below 103.
  • #2,933
  • Oct 15, 2013 9:19am Oct 15, 2013 9:19am
Quoting srt
{quote} I want to be bullish too on UJ as I think Abe wants to keep pushing Yen lower but longer-term I'm concerned the US$ could take a hit unless they start doing something about the enormous & fast-growing debt. China is already cutting deals with other countries so they don't have to buy US dollars to make purchases of commodities from other countries. I think this is the beginning of the end of the US$ serving as the reserve currency which would be pretty bearish for US$. I should probably just trade the chart & not be influenced by the news...
IMHO $ index has broken the long-term bull trend sometimes early september. Now is bottoming. IMHO, I feel the current bull movement as a retracement till $ tests again the previous bull trend-line. According to how it reacts to the trendline then is when $ will be really bull or bear. Just my thoughts
  • #2,934
  • Oct 15, 2013 10:06am Oct 15, 2013 10:06am
Iranian oil.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0I50UW20131015

"Oil prices could fall around $10 per barrel if Iran resumes full exports, analysts say."

I have been hearing about this some: different opinions - most think Iranian oil sanctions will be lifted sooner or later, as that is the juiciest bargaining chip they have (lift sanctions, we cooperate with international nuke regulation) - and when that happens, an additional 1-2 MM bbl/day would hit the market, lowering Brent by $10/bbl. Many say this is down the road many months, but I bet it will be sooner than later....not sure if/how I'm trading it, though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,935
  • Oct 15, 2013 11:38am Oct 15, 2013 11:38am
Quoting The Fool
Iranian oil. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0I50UW20131015 "Oil prices could fall around $10 per barrel if Iran resumes full exports, analysts say." I have been hearing about this some: different opinions - most think Iranian oil sanctions will be lifted sooner or later, as that is the juiciest bargaining chip they have (lift sanctions, we cooperate with international nuke regulation) - and when that happens, an additional 1-2 MM bbl/day would hit the market, lowering Brent by $10/bbl. Many say this is...

I am bearish crude oil and believe we will descend below immediate support soon. Just waiting for resolution of this US stuff. I will put up my chart when I get home tonight

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,936
  • Oct 15, 2013 11:43am Oct 15, 2013 11:43am
Quoting rehab
{quote} IMHO $ index has broken the long-term bull trend sometimes early september. Now is bottoming. IMHO, I feel the current bull movement as a retracement till $ tests again the previous bull trend-line. According to how it reacts to the trendline then is when $ will be really bull or bear. Just my thoughts

Rehab i agree with you that the $ is messed up at the moment but until it ceases to be the reserve currency 'never say never'

Will comment more tonight

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,937
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:48pm Oct 15, 2013 3:48pm
March Sugar
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,938
  • Oct 15, 2013 4:06pm Oct 15, 2013 4:06pm
Crude Oil
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,939
  • Oct 16, 2013 12:15pm Oct 16, 2013 12:15pm
We have a deal!!!!!!!!!

Ceiling raised to support spending for another 4 months. Government open for 2.5 months. No reason to celebrate really but I think the markets may now go into the Xmas rally mode

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,940
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:56am Oct 17, 2013 2:56am
Quoting Olu
We have a deal!!!!!!!!! Ceiling raised to support spending for another 4 months. Government open for 2.5 months. No reason to celebrate really but I think the markets may now go into the Xmas rally mode Olu {image}

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