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  • #2,901
  • Oct 11, 2013 8:18am Oct 11, 2013 8:18am
Quoting Olu
EurGbp - very short term I dont normally look at trade possibilities like this one but I saw it and thought to put it out there Olu {image}
price promptly went the other way.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,902
  • Oct 11, 2013 8:33am Oct 11, 2013 8:33am
Quoting rehab
What the $ wants?
Hi Rehab

The $ wants to bottom but is having problems doing so. What is happening is each pair has different issues and so they are doing their own thing with different intensities. Difficult going but doable imho. In the last few days in a bid to find my true trend and jump on it I have donated to the forex cloud and also collected from the forex cloud. I dont like taking trades where I will have to be watching the charts intraday but I have taken a few though.

Hang in there. Our true and long trend will appear soon

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,903
  • Oct 11, 2013 1:57pm Oct 11, 2013 1:57pm
My Musings on Gold

Hi

I am so bearish gold. I am mindful though of the fact that when the common man (me) is convinced of something the opposite will happen. However I cant help but think aloud
How can gold be going down despite all the world QE
How can gold be going down despite all the world debt especially the US
How can gold be going down with a government shutdown in the US
where is the 'safe havenness' properties of gold?

Like someone who has gone bonkers I ask the above questions and provide the answer as well.

Gold has no safe haven qualities now
Gold is no longer an inflation hedge.
Gold is just an ordinary shiny metal good only to give to our partners as a sign of affection

That is just me...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,904
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:27pm Oct 11, 2013 3:27pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi Rehab The $ wants to bottom but is having problems doing so. What is happening is each pair has different issues and so they are doing their own thing with different intensities. Difficult going but doable imho. In the last few days in a bid to find my true trend and jump on it I have donated to the forex cloud and also collected from the forex cloud. I dont like taking trades where I will have to be watching the charts intraday but I have taken a few though. Hang in there. Our true and long trend will appear soon Olu
Hi Olu, I think the $ wants to go up but it seems that no one is enthusiastic about it so it is just swinging up and own with my money. I donated a lot to forex the last couple of weeks and so far has collected nothing. I agree with you that each pair is doing whatever feels like that is why I am lost with them. cheers Olu, I hope I last till I see the $ trending again .
  • #2,905
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:32pm Oct 11, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting Olu
My Musings on Gold Hi I am so bearish gold. I am mindful though of the fact that when the common man (me) is convinced of something the opposite will happen. However I cant help but think aloud How can gold be going down despite all the world QE How can gold be going down despite all the world debt especially the US How can gold be going down with a government shutdown in the US where is the 'safe havenness' properties of gold? Like someone who has gone bonkers I ask the above questions and provide the answer as well. Gold has no safe haven qualities...

I do not have experience with Gold and with my tiny account I canīt even think of it, but I have been watching it recently together with Oil CFD on FXCM. Yes, the H&S appears so clear that you wonder why it doesnīt collapse yet, and you think once it does it will be like a flood..today I saw it breaking but the break was shy bbelow neckline that makes one feels there is a trick going on watch out!
  • #2,906
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:34pm Oct 11, 2013 3:34pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} Hi Olu, I think the $ wants to go up but it seems that no one is enthusiastic about it so it is just swinging up and own with my money. I donated a lot to forex the last couple of weeks and so far has collected nothing. I agree with you that each pair is doing whatever feels like that is why I am lost with them. cheers Olu, I hope I last till I see the $ trending again .
Rehab. Sorry about your 'contributions' It is part of the business and as long as good MM is used we will last till a good trend comes along. UsdJpy is one that is developing now. If this debt ceiling is sorted out over the weekend I believe the way is clear for an attack on 100 i.e a real trend. For now we wait.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,907
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:58pm Oct 13, 2013 4:58pm
GbpUsd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-8h-13102013-2245uk.jpg Size: 86 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,908
  • Oct 14, 2013 4:13am Oct 14, 2013 4:13am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Rehab. Sorry about your 'contributions' It is part of the business and as long as good MM is used we will last till a good trend comes along. UsdJpy is one that is developing now. If this debt ceiling is sorted out over the weekend I believe the way is clear for an attack on 100 i.e a real trend. For now we wait. Olu
Yes, I am long UJ and short oil. Everyone knows that the problem in the US will end, it is just how negative the retracement can reach before the bulls start their trend. GU is showing weakness and I see your point in your GU chart, good luck.
  • #2,909
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:43am Oct 14, 2013 5:43am
Quoting rehab
{quote} Yes, I am long UJ and short oil. Everyone knows that the problem in the US will end, it is just how negative the retracement can reach before the bulls start their trend. GU is showing weakness and I see your point in your GU chart, good luck.

Good luck on these trades Rehab. Imho this is the right direction for these 2 instruments

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,910
  • Oct 14, 2013 1:12pm Oct 14, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} Yes, I am long UJ and short oil. Everyone knows that the problem in the US will end, it is just how negative the retracement can reach before the bulls start their trend. GU is showing weakness and I see your point in your GU chart, good luck.
Hi,

Short oil = short risk
Long UJ = long risk

So you are short risk and long risk. Is that the intention?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,911
  • Oct 14, 2013 2:00pm Oct 14, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi, Short oil = short risk Long UJ = long risk So you are short risk and long risk. Is that the intention?
Hi Boy Wonder

I hear you and the logic you have described. In real sense ones trades should face the same direction
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,912
  • Oct 14, 2013 2:32pm Oct 14, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi, Short oil = short risk Long UJ = long risk So you are short risk and long risk. Is that the intention?

Hi Bob, I do not get your point, can you please explain what you mean. Thanks and appreciate your contribution.
  • #2,913
  • Oct 14, 2013 3:00pm Oct 14, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} Hi Bob, I do not get your point, can you please explain what you mean. Thanks and appreciate your contribution.
Hi Rehab

Generally, oil is highly correlated with the SPX. Of course the correlation changes over time and indeed in a small way every day, but generally at the moment, that's true. So they tend to move in the same direction, albeit there will be days when one might be up and the other down.
SPX is a risk on asset. So when people want to take on risk - make money - they buy SPX. And oil.
USDJPY is a risk on asset when it goes up.
JPY is still perceived as a safe haven asset so generally JPY crosses eg EURJPY, AUDJPY go up when the SPX goes up and vice-versa; they tend to move together.
Check a chart of USDJPY vs the Nikkei. They move in lockstep.

So being short oil means betting on risk off = stocks drop etc.
Being long USDJPY means betting on risk on = stocks go up etc.
Perfectly fine to do both, if that's your game. I just wanted to check you knew that that is in effect what you're doing.
Best of luck.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,914
  • Oct 14, 2013 3:18pm Oct 14, 2013 3:18pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi, Short oil = short risk Long UJ = long risk
There are easier ways to trade risk on/off. Oil is a difficult instrument to trade. Generally it is inversely correlated to USD, since most oil is bought/sold with USD - so if you buy oil with USD you are long oil and short USD. So if you are long USD, are you short risk? Not always....

....oil can be influeneced by event risk (i.e., Middle East events, weather, etc) that may not impact the larger markets' risk on/off flow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,915
  • Oct 14, 2013 3:40pm Oct 14, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi Rehab Generally, oil is highly correlated with the SPX. Of course the correlation changes over time and indeed in a small way every day, but generally at the moment, that's true. So they tend to move in the same direction, albeit there will be days when one might be up and the other down. SPX is a risk on asset. So when people want to take on risk - make money - they buy SPX. And oil. USDJPY is a risk on asset when it goes up. JPY is still perceived as a safe haven asset so generally JPY crosses eg EURJPY, AUDJPY go up when the SPX goes...

Hi Bop Wonder and The Fool, thanks a lot for taking care to reply and explain, much appreciate! I understand now what you mean Bob. I do not trade risk on/off, if that is what is called. My strategy is based on trading price action with one eye on the news and the other on the economic calender, so I trade what I see. From my little experience i saw that market correlation changes in short terms (I trade short term: few days to a couple of weeks max) and also safe heaven can be sometimes not safe heaven-as is the case of Gold nowadays. I do not argue against what you say Bob, I have no knowledge with Risk-based trading. As to Oil, I am just starting trading it, I like it as it is volatile..so far so good, but it is too early for me to decide if it is suitable instrument for my strategy or not. Thanks guys, I learned one new thing I will take a note and make further research!...Have a nice evening.
  • #2,916
  • Oct 14, 2013 3:44pm Oct 14, 2013 3:44pm
Guys thanks for your contribution. It is best to pick a risk on or risk off situation to trade not both at the same time. Once in a tade especially the ones I like to trade risk situations can switch between on to off and vice versa but you want the switch not to be for long otherwise you have trend reversal on your hands
Thanks to all the contributors. More discussion please

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,917
  • Edited 4:04pm Oct 14, 2013 3:48pm | Edited 4:04pm
Anyone watching the usdjpy?

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-daily-14102013-2200uk.jpg Size: 62 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,918
  • Oct 14, 2013 4:28pm Oct 14, 2013 4:28pm
December Lean Hogs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LeanHogs-daily-14102013.jpg Size: 72 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,919
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:05pm Oct 14, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting Olu
December Lean Hogs {image}
Interesting chart Olu, seems to show a potential HnS failure with low risk. At a guess:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 217 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,920
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:06pm Oct 14, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting Olu
Anyone watching the usdjpy? Olu {image}
Bearish this pair, too many bulls about for my liking.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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