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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #70,341
  • Edited 10:00am Oct 12, 2013 9:17am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting theDHT
EJ Looks like the complex correction following the 5 wave move may be complete... Risk assets are starting to look more bullish in general; this count supports my thesis... comments are welcome! Weekly {image}
HI
well what i can say is ...1: the price tested the uptrend line 311x( started in June 2013 daily chart 124.96 ) and not broken..then we can see a new high 136.xx...
2:does not rise more than 341X and see 130.xx as ABC about 400 pips ( 134.9x ... to 131.xx)..

I'm sorry I can not post chart now..
but your week chart serves... my 2c
  • #70,342
  • Oct 12, 2013 1:12pm Oct 12, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting theDHT
EJ Looks like the complex correction following the 5 wave move may be complete... Risk assets are starting to look more bullish in general; this count supports my thesis... comments are welcome! Weekly {image}
Have you considered that the waves 3, 4 and 5 that you have maked could very well belong to wave 3?
The complex correction you have marked is wave 4 and now it's going further up to complete wave 5 (possibly truncated)?
Which will likely be followed by a larger downward correction on a risk liquidation/correction?

Just my 2 cents
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,343
  • Edited 3:15pm Oct 12, 2013 3:05pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Have you considered that the waves 3, 4 and 5 that you have maked could very well belong to wave 3? The complex correction you have marked is wave 4 and now it's going further up to complete wave 5 (possibly truncated)? Which will likely be followed by a larger downward correction on a risk liquidation/correction? Just my 2 cents

Hi @PT,

the points you make are good ones, and I think that those counts would also work, especially considering that Wave 4's are quite often complex corrections anyway...

my reasons for labeling it the way I did are pretty simple:

1- the sequential sell trigger coupled with bearish momentum divergence implied significant trend exhaustion, which often coincides with a wave 5; back in June I got very bearish on this pair, and held on to my losing positions until fairly recently, when the high was taken out... which invalidated my thesis
2- on the monthly chart, we can see a perfect 50% fib retracement, and a sequential sell trigger, once again, "coincidental" occurrences, which often happen when an impulse move is completed
3- one of the requirements for a corrective trend is that it must be greater in time AND price than Waves 2 and 4... but this is typically applied to ABC's and not CCT's, with that said, we can see that the CCT i am suggesting is at least greater in time than W2 and W4... less than perfect but workable
4- the count is workable and checks all the boxes (this is often the hardest part!!)

ultimately, the only purpose of such analysis is to point us in the correct general direction... and often even the best EW practitioners don't know if their counts are correctly labeled until after the fact...
I think in this case, both our counts would bring us to the same conclusion: time to get bullish... which is nice to see... especially when its backed by fundis and other technical studies...

regarding the point you make about a larger correction, my thinking is that the next leg up, whether using your count or mine, would probably not be as large as the current one... as we get closer to the end of this move, there will be many indications, there is no rule which says that a the second 5 wave run in the same direction needs to be of the same magnitude as the first... it accommodates both our views...

cheers

EJ Monthly
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,344
  • Oct 12, 2013 3:21pm Oct 12, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} HI well what i can say is ...1: the price tested the uptrend line 311x( started in June 2013 daily chart 124.96 ) and not broken..then we can see a new high 136.xx... 2:does not rise more than 341X and see 130.xx as ABC about 400 pips ( 134.9x ... to 131.xx).. I'm sorry I can not post chart now.. but your week chart serves... my 2c
hey dude,
its possible that you are correct,

my understanding is that a firm indication for the conclusion of a correction is when the high of the previous impulse wave is taken out; not necessarily on a closing basis, even an intra-bar move qualifies... I would add that this is probably more true for higher TF than lower ones, due to their relative immunity to headline/news flow related price shocks

but i am certainly no expert on EW, there are guys here way more sophisticated than me...

anyone else got a view on this?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,345
  • Oct 12, 2013 3:26pm Oct 12, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} These times economic rules don't match much with politics !
the Euro Zone is an amazing mind fuck from a fundamental view... i think even some of the smartest policy makers have not fully come to grips with all the moving parts!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,346
  • Oct 12, 2013 5:14pm Oct 12, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} the Euro Zone is an amazing mind fuck from a fundamental view... i think even some of the smartest policy makers have not fully come to grips with all the moving parts!
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,347
  • Oct 13, 2013 8:43am Oct 13, 2013 8:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Have you considered that the waves 3, 4 and 5 that you have maked could very well belong to wave 3? The complex correction you have marked is wave 4 and now it's going further up to complete wave 5 (possibly truncated)? Which will likely be followed by a larger downward correction on a risk liquidation/correction? Just my 2 cents
hi PT
makes sense .. the beginning of wave 5 now....
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  • #70,348
  • Oct 13, 2013 8:49am Oct 13, 2013 8:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
Euro H/S neckline / speedline breach on H4 charts Measured target ~ 1.3450 {image}
Looking Good...............1.3400 area........
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,349
  • Oct 13, 2013 8:54am Oct 13, 2013 8:54am
We have a very odd, but similar set of charts coming up here..................

EJ Monthly and H4 are are looking Identical to one another............

My guess is what ever the H4 does this week..........

That is what the Monthly will do in the future also.....................
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,350
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:38pm Oct 13, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} HI well what i can say is ...1: the price tested the uptrend line 311x( started in June 2013 daily chart 124.96 ) and not broken..then we can see a new high 136.xx... 2:does not rise more than 341X and see 130.xx as ABC about 400 pips ( 134.9x ... to 131.xx).. I'm sorry I can not post chart now.. but your week chart serves... my 2c

my oldest E/J Daily chart ... and more clear to me ...
lines roses were my levels of support..
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  • #70,351
  • Oct 13, 2013 6:20pm Oct 13, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Euro H/S neckline / speedline breach on H4 charts Measured target ~ 1.3450 {image}
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Looking Good...............1.3400 area........ {image}
Now confirmed
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,352
  • Oct 13, 2013 6:24pm Oct 13, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting forexalien
We have a very odd, but similar set of charts coming up here.................. EJ Monthly and H4 are are looking Identical to one another............ My guess is what ever the H4 does this week.......... That is what the Monthly will do in the future also..................... {image}
I am very tempted to short this pair as it looks technically exhausted.
However, with the shitshow going on in DC, I'm feeling a bit

If it makes it to 134.30/40 area, I will consider a nice short and I will be targeting 123.xx area
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,353
  • Oct 13, 2013 6:37pm Oct 13, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I am very tempted to short this pair as it looks technically exhausted. However, with the shitshow going on in DC, I'm feeling a bit If it makes it to 134.30/40 area, I will consider a nice short and I will be targeting 123.xx area
You have time to wait for that sell, it is not coming over night ! I will chime in when things get closer................... EJ on the mind.......
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,354
  • Oct 13, 2013 7:14pm Oct 13, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I am very tempted to short this pair as it looks technically exhausted. However, with the shitshow going on in DC, I'm feeling a bit If it makes it to 134.30/40 area, I will consider a nice short and I will be targeting 123.xx area
i do like the idea, but i would play very short term at this stage (H4 max) and with very tight risk... i am reluctant to commit full size positions during such uncertainty no matter how sure i may be

I dont see a 123 target on anything lower than weekly TF; IMO a move such as that would be a protracted one, and when it starts to develop, we would have plenty of time to get in on it

looking at just H4 this is what I see

getting to the 161.8 @ ~345 would require a bit of conviction in a week where no one is sure of anything, the highlighted confluence zone should hold things up... with that said, sell indications are already in play...

Euro
H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,355
  • Oct 14, 2013 2:38am Oct 14, 2013 2:38am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} i do like the idea, but i would play very short term at this stage (H4 max) and with very tight risk... i am reluctant to commit full size positions during such uncertainty no matter how sure i may be I dont see a 123 target on anything lower than weekly TF; IMO a move such as that would be a protracted one, and when it starts to develop, we would have plenty of time to get in on it looking at just H4 this is what I see getting to the 161.8 @ ~345 would require a bit of conviction in a week where no one is sure of anything, the highlighted...
Thanks for your analysis. Cheers
I was in fact looking at longer term. I have no appetite for short term risk at the moment.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,356
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:12am Oct 14, 2013 6:12am
Hi All,

Just to note:
1. today's gap on NZDJPY and USDCHF is south both
2. as of now traps on
- NZDJPY is north
- USDCHF is south

Any ideas why?

PT: sorry if I'm wrong with the thread
  • #70,357
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:44am Oct 14, 2013 6:44am
Quoting magicgate
Hi All, Just to note: 1. today's gap on NZDJPY and USDCHF is south both 2. as of now traps on - NZDJPY is north - USDCHF is south Any ideas why? PT: sorry if I'm wrong with the thread
No worries Magic. The general rule here is that the main focus is on the Euro, but that does not mean that other pairs cannot be discussed. After all, it is a "global" market so what happens with one currency usually affects the others.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,358
  • Oct 14, 2013 7:00am Oct 14, 2013 7:00am
Hi All...
Anybody dare to predict Euro market before deadline on October 17th?
I think they (US Congress) will get into some agreement before Wednesday, THEY MUST DO SO, and this may draw EURUSD down even 100-200 pips.
FOR NOW my plan is going SHORT as long as we DO NOT BREAK "AB" resistance line (on my chart).

Alternatively when "AB" breaks, I have some BUY LIMIT orders above with 1.37 targets.
Next two days could be very choppy and unpredictable. I do not want to expose myself for too much risk, be careful.

How do you think guys, is this gonna break?
Here's my BEARISH and BULLISH scenarios...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #70,359
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:03am Oct 14, 2013 9:03am
Quoting halkins
Hi All... Anybody dare to predict Euro market before deadline on October 17th? I think they (US Congress) will get into some agreement before Wednesday, THEY MUST DO SO, and this may draw EURUSD down even 100-200 pips. FOR NOW my plan is going SHORT as long as we DO NOT BREAK "AB" resistance line (on my chart). Alternatively when "AB" breaks, I have some BUY LIMIT orders above with 1.37 targets. Next two days could be very choppy and unpredictable. I do not want to expose myself for too much risk, be careful. How do you think guys, is...
it may collect the stops abv .3710/.3738,,and go south...
  • #70,360
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:27am Oct 14, 2013 9:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} No worries Magic. The general rule here is that the main focus is on the Euro, but that does not mean that other pairs cannot be discussed. After all, it is a "global" market so what happens with one currency usually affects the others.
Yep, but today is a holiday in US and some other countries, so I thought same irrational gaps&traps could be a signal to some rational moves
It makes sense for my pendulum tactic. As of now (if nothing else comes to us this week) I expect USD starts to become stronger, imo safety pairs are 1.USDSHF, 2.EURUSD, 3.GBPUSD
Today I prefer the first pair and hope to start shorting others from tommorow or later.

Btw I'm sure you saw AUDNZD gap today.
This pair could have really sweet retrace soon, another leg to 1.130x - 1.125x zone and I'll load another longs
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