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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #37,981
  • Oct 10, 2013 10:30am Oct 10, 2013 10:30am
hello all
us' unemployment explode, government shutdown
I think this will drive uj back again below 98
I'm looking 96.xx to buy haha
  • #37,982
  • Oct 10, 2013 10:35am Oct 10, 2013 10:35am
Quoting lugy
hello all us' unemployment explode, government shutdown I think this will drive uj back again below 98 I'm looking 96.xx to buy haha
With all the bad news, you still want buy?
  • #37,983
  • Oct 10, 2013 10:56am Oct 10, 2013 10:56am
Quoting multi888
{quote} With all the bad news, you still want buy?
from 96 up to 98 is a good chance to make some quick bucks if thats why he meant
  • #37,984
  • Oct 10, 2013 11:04am Oct 10, 2013 11:04am
The bad news is already built into the market.
  • #37,985
  • Oct 10, 2013 11:07am Oct 10, 2013 11:07am
Quoting Godof4x
The bad news is already built into the market.
but its still going up for some reason
  • #37,986
  • Oct 10, 2013 11:17am Oct 10, 2013 11:17am
hmm
fundie or tech?

I'm not the tech one
forget the tapering
uj will go south
especially for long term, or at least at year end

technically, if u look at the chart, of course it has more power to go north
if tomorrow's sentiment fall, I think the up trend line will fail to improve
  • #37,987
  • Oct 10, 2013 1:47pm Oct 10, 2013 1:47pm
Possible resistance at 98.50, 98.70, and 98.90. Will any of those cause a substantial decline of 100+ pips? I seriously doubt it.
  • #37,988
  • Oct 10, 2013 2:17pm Oct 10, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting Zappa
Possible resistance at 98.50, 98.70, and 98.90. Will any of those cause a substantial decline of 100+ pips? I seriously doubt it.
Again I can't short this pair but I think a 50+ pip drop is in the cards. 97.50 highly probable, 97.0 has a chance, but I doubt it tests the low.
  • #37,989
  • Oct 10, 2013 2:43pm Oct 10, 2013 2:43pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Again I can't short this pair but I think a 50+ pip drop is in the cards. 97.50 highly probable, 97.0 has a chance, but I doubt it tests the low.
Highly improbable for both those numbers, I'd say. 97.50 is slightly possible, I doubt it though. The secret is out, this is going much higher even still.
  • #37,990
  • Oct 10, 2013 3:01pm Oct 10, 2013 3:01pm
When looking at monthly candles you'll see many descending and ascending wicks. Price has been coiling for a strong breakout. Bears had their chance this week and couldn't do it, next week bulls will have their turn (and I'm guessing they will come out on top).

Also important to remember that it is U.S. equities earnings season. S&P 500 and U/J have been very correlated the past year or so. Earnings expectations are very low at the moment so there could be some panic buying if companies report blow out quarters.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #37,991
  • Oct 10, 2013 4:26pm Oct 10, 2013 4:26pm
Yen Futures (inverse of the usdjpy)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YenFuturesCont-weekly-11102013-0020uk.jpg Size: 107 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #37,992
  • Oct 10, 2013 6:26pm Oct 10, 2013 6:26pm
New Positions:

SLD 2 OCT18 0.01 Put Fut. Option (6J3) 0.0000080
SLD 2 OCT18 0.0104 Call Fut. Option (6J3) 0.0000060

Existing Positions:

SLD 4 OCT11 0.01005 Put Fut. Option (6J2) 0.0000070
SLD 2 OCT11 0.01050 Call Fut. Option (6J2) 0.0000080

Position Summary:

My existing PUT and CALL options will both expire OTM tomorrow afternoon baring any major breakthrough in the US Congress, it would probably take both a long-term resolution on the debt ceiling and government reopening to take it past my PUT strike price.

My new position has been pared down to reflect market uncertainty and also to keep ample margin available for Nikkei option selling being initiated tonight (right now; lower risk and higher reward). The current market poses two problems for me (and could also apply to you);

 

  1. My much touted range of 101 – 97 broke cleanly to the downside, I think we traded in the low to mid-96s for quite some time. This was all due to the problems residing in the US, not to technical analysis or some trend, right now we are right back in the low 98 zone upon some better news being released (but bad news can be right around the corner).
  2. What I will call “the announcement trade” – Its clear at some point the government will announce something, be it a resolution to the debt ceiling and/or the government reopening. It will move the market quickly, without warning, unless you get the news before most of the market – good luck. This is a risky trade, if your long/short the market and it moves the opposite way you could be looking at heavy loses. My suggestion is keep your leverage to a minimum until some or most of this mess is resolved, and that’s what my trade this week reflects.


Now the details on the trade; I’ve gone in equal on both sides of the market representing a range of 100 – 96 which closely resembles my original preferred range of 101 – 97, I hope the market has found its way back into this, but it does come with downside risks.

I will protect my PUT options (100 in spot terms) by shorting the corresponding amount of futures contracts should the market challenge the price, however I will leave my CALLs unprotected since anything settling up there would seem to be temporary and I would ride out the loss until it regains the original strike price (break-even on the futures).

  • #37,993
  • Oct 10, 2013 6:27pm Oct 10, 2013 6:27pm
Gidday YEN Masters

Have to say really happy about this

US/JPY climbing.

I been clipping the ticket

been holding to many longs in this pair.

The rest I will hold to 104
  • #37,994
  • Oct 10, 2013 6:43pm Oct 10, 2013 6:43pm
Big boy move underway. 38.2% retrace of Thursday bought super aggressively. Looks a weekly bullish engulfing candle is in the making.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #37,995
  • Oct 10, 2013 6:49pm Oct 10, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} No indicators at all. I look at price on every TF available on Metatrader and look for spots where traders "got in too easily". I look for places that went untested. Places where there was power. Its hard to explain, really. I've been staring at these charts for over 10 years now. I guess after being the one who always did the wrong thing for so many years, I finally (albeit very slowly) started to learn a few things. This has taken god knows how many hours to get to my level, and I still make mistakes, so always room for improvement....
thanks, your key indicator - experience.

if on your next prediction you could provide some reasoning to help us less experienced would be great. thanks for posting here.
Do what's right for you
  • #37,996
  • Oct 10, 2013 6:52pm Oct 10, 2013 6:52pm
Quoting zusch
Big boy move underway. 38.2% retrace of Thursday bought super aggressively. Looks a weekly bullish engulfing candle is in the making.
Hello Zusch

My autochartist showing back to 97 2 days

is that the big down you are talking about:nerd:
  • #37,997
  • Oct 10, 2013 7:06pm Oct 10, 2013 7:06pm
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Hello Zusch My autochartist showing back to 97 2 days is that the big down you are talking about:nerd:
Hi eliteincome,

Sorry I'm not exactly sure what you are saying. Are you saying that your "autochartist" is saying price is heading down to 97 within 2 days?

I'm referring to the big drop that happened 3.5 hours ago. That drop was pretty close to exactly 38.2% of Thursday's daily candle (my daily candle opens and closes at 5pm New York time). I see this upwards momentum continuing and breaking past 98.72 (last week's high) by the end of the week.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #37,998
  • Oct 10, 2013 7:07pm Oct 10, 2013 7:07pm
Also a 5/10 EMA crossover, which is a valid signal, but one I don't actively look for -- price action is telling me everything I need to know.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #37,999
  • Oct 10, 2013 7:22pm Oct 10, 2013 7:22pm
Wanted to share my USDJPY daily chart and explain why this is a very powerful move for bulls. First of all the pink lines you see on each candle are Fibonacci's (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%).

Short were in control at Monday's close (1). However on Tuesday (2), price retraced past 61.8% of (1) and closes positive.

(3) retraces down to 61.8% of (2), and rallies hard and closes above (2) high.

(4) retraces down to 38.2% of (3) and today (5) retraces down to 38.2% of (4).

Also notice EMA crossover.

In conclusion, the daily retraces have been very shallow on the way up while the retrace of Monday's daily candle was very deep. Bulls in full control.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10.10.13 USDJPY.png Size: 27 KB
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #38,000
  • Oct 10, 2013 8:20pm Oct 10, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting zusch
Wanted to share my USDJPY daily chart and explain why this is a very powerful move for bulls. {image}
thanks for sharing, momentum is still looking strong
Do what's right for you
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