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  • #121
  • Oct 10, 2013 9:17am Oct 10, 2013 9:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Here's the HSBC rates {image} http://www.hsbc.com.hk/1/2/hk/invest...wscmd=cmd_init

many thanks dude!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #122
  • Oct 10, 2013 9:36pm Oct 10, 2013 9:36pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} well that didn't take very long... Ozzie Yen H4 (update) {image} Daily {image} link to original post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post7017529
closed half of my position at ~93.30 for +100 pips (supply line on daily)

this pair is a good candidate for continuation, so I will probably add to it after the retrace (probably next week)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #123
  • Oct 10, 2013 10:51pm Oct 10, 2013 10:51pm
Hello DHT

I see Obama has been working on his sun tan
Attached Image
  • #124
  • Oct 10, 2013 11:38pm Oct 10, 2013 11:38pm
Hello

Any ideas on this EUR/YEN

talk about taking the long way down

I got shorts to 130

An it keeps climbing

Hard case knowing my luck it will go to 135 first
  • #125
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:00am Oct 11, 2013 12:00am
Quoting eliteincome
Hello Any ideas on this EUR/YEN talk about taking the long way down I got shorts to 130 An it keeps climbing Hard case knowing my luck it will go to 135 first

hey eliteincome!

i dumped my shorts on EJ a few weeks back, sadly near the top of the market... the big picture is starting to look pretty bullish to me... maybe my timing is off!

I know Venzen was also burnt by his shorts, and him and I are both looking for a bit of payback from this pair!!

My position sheet is pretty light atm, took a long on AUD/JPY yesterday, and then closed half of it a few hours ago...

I am waiting for Monday, with the hopes that the monkey fest in DC gets resolved and we can (hopefully) start on a trend

these markets have been a bit frustrating since the Bernanke Bomb...

good luck dude!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #126
  • Oct 11, 2013 2:04am Oct 11, 2013 2:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} Yep. It's almost orgasmic. I've been a very patient bull on this pair and I'm glad it's finally paying off
I had to bail at 1.1425, PA wasn't looking good at all

Gotta see how this weekly closes before I make decision if I want to go for more pips.

At any rate, should be a great buying opportunity near 1.1360/1.1350
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #127
  • Oct 11, 2013 2:26am Oct 11, 2013 2:26am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} hey eliteincome! i dumped my shorts on EJ a few weeks back, sadly near the top of the market... the big picture is starting to look pretty bullish to me... maybe my timing is off! I know Venzen was also burnt by his shorts, and him and I are both looking for a bit of payback from this pair!! My position sheet is pretty light atm, took a long on AUD/JPY yesterday, and then closed half of it a few hours ago... I am waiting for Monday, with the hopes that the monkey fest in DC gets resolved and we can (hopefully) start on a trend these markets...

yep, the Yen pairs are really shunting and those spikes look like a ripe fruits wanting to come down from the tree... patience, eh?

BTW did your TDM analysis give any indication that the Yen pairs were going to turn up like this? I should have known by EJ hitting the lower traingle barrier and UJ coming back inside with force but I've totally lost confidence with the Yens... EW-wise I've stopped counting those out of sheer defeat, but I will spend the weekend recounting with new enthusiasm.

Like you I've got a TA fest lined up to find those opportunities that will make the last quarter my best one to date!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #128
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:06am Oct 11, 2013 3:06am
about the AUD...

this awaits confirmation, but the evidence is overwhelming:

http://ubuntuone.com/1QbwACD4UrtRWpOOdj29iJ
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #129
  • Oct 11, 2013 8:45am Oct 11, 2013 8:45am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} here are some initial thoughts on gold... I am still bearish with no position... I may enter on break of the daily supply line with a target price around the weekly supply line Gold Weekly {image} Gold Daily {image}
Gold: Follow Up

Say No To Temptation (until the break is qualified!)

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Daily 10.11.13.png Size: 63 KB


original post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post7017275
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #130
  • Oct 11, 2013 9:01am Oct 11, 2013 9:01am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Gold: Follow Up Say No To Temptation (until the break is qualified!) Daily {image} original post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post7017275

very much.

It reminds me of that H&S in EU a few months ago: everyone (including moi) was wetting their shorts at the massive H&S and PA touched the neckline - crossed it back and forth for a few hours and then just launched straight back north where it came from.

an additional drop will be great, but there's a lot of resistance going down.

edit: looks like a 5th wave down is missing - the triangle (M1) forming now could breakout downwards, print wave 5 to 1250 and then bounce - potential fake-out. I'm sitting on the sideline.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #131
  • Oct 11, 2013 9:09am Oct 11, 2013 9:09am
Quoting venzen
{quote} very much. It reminds me of that H&S in EU a few months ago: everyone (including moi) was wetting their shorts at the massive H&S and PA touched the neckline - crossed it back and forth for a few hours and then just launched straight back north where it came from. an additional drop will be great, but there's a lot of resistance going down. edit: looks like a 5th wave down is missing - the triangle (M1) forming now could breakout downwards, print wave 5 to 1250 and then bounce - potential fake-out. I'm sitting on the sideline.
Agreed

Im licking my chops though...

The H4 is starting to give early stage confirmation for a continued bear move...

Silver is also getting close to an important support... Break would imply significant downside... Will post shortly...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #132
  • Edited 10:10am Oct 11, 2013 9:11am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting venzen
about the AUD... this awaits confirmation, but the evidence is overwhelming: {image}
There was a sequential sell trigger on aud/usd a few days ago (chart added)

On fundis my bias is still to the upside

But technicals and ew seem to imply otherwise... So staying out atm...

edit: chart added

Ozzie

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ozzie Daily 10.11.13.png Size: 57 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #133
  • Oct 11, 2013 9:41am Oct 11, 2013 9:41am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} There was a sequential sell trigger on aud/usd a few days ago On fundis my bias is still to the upside But technicals and ew seem to imply otherwise... So staying out atm...

ya, i'm sitting out for now on AUD.

the Yens are also looking like they want to turn down, but there is no way in Hades I'm keeping a position over the weekend. That's like putting your kitten on the pavement while you cross the road to quickly buy it some cat-food.... vroom!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #134
  • Oct 11, 2013 9:54am Oct 11, 2013 9:54am
Quoting venzen
{quote} ya, i'm sitting out for now on AUD. the Yens are also looking like they want to turn down, but there is no way in Hades I'm keeping a position over the weekend. That's like putting your kitten on the pavement while you cross the road to quickly buy it some cat-food.... vroom!
I have no exposure to usd, and i plan to keep it that way till the dc soap opera is resolved...

still got half my ozzie/yen as i posted earlier... No sweat its zero risk at this stage!

Looking forward to a relaxing and stress free weekend after a long time...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #135
  • Oct 11, 2013 10:22am Oct 11, 2013 10:22am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Agreed Im licking my chops though... The H4 is starting to give early stage confirmation for a continued bear move... Silver is also getting close to an important support... Break would imply significant downside... Will post shortly...

Silver

...like clockwork...

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver Daily 10.11.13.png Size: 59 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #136
  • Oct 11, 2013 11:25am Oct 11, 2013 11:25am
Okay so here we are.. The market is optimistic that DC will re-open on Tuesday and that the debt ceiling will be temporarily raised to give them time to "negotiate". In the process, both equities and the USD are rallying, and this on the back of Yellen's nomination for Fed chair where I am sure her first act will be to hit the print button again. Therefore, I'm a tad confused with recent Price action. Something fishy going on here. Either equities are about to get that 20% correction, or the big boys are trying to suck in more USD bulls to have enough liquidity to make new lows. Either way, it's not tradeable for me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #137
  • Oct 11, 2013 1:55pm Oct 11, 2013 1:55pm
On the current situation in Washington I don't know what's going to happen, but as long as there is a possibility of a major USD collapse and not much possibility of a similar sized rally, I am staying short USD. Potential big gain v potential small loss. The biggest fundamental risk to this position is a worsening of the political standoff causing widespread risk aversion and flight to safety back into USD - to cover this I am long JPY, a USD rally caused by risk aversion should in theory result in an even bigger rally in JPY.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #138
  • Oct 11, 2013 2:24pm Oct 11, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Either way, it's not tradeable for me.
you and me both dude!


enjoy a relaxing weekend...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #139
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:24pm Oct 11, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting numbnuts
On the current situation in Washington I don't know what's going to happen, but as long as there is a possibility of a major USD collapse and not much possibility of a similar sized rally, I am staying short USD. Potential big gain v potential small loss. The biggest fundamental risk to this position is a worsening of the political standoff causing widespread risk aversion and flight to safety back into USD - to cover this I am long JPY, a USD rally caused by risk aversion should in theory result in an even bigger rally in JPY.
Under normal circumstances, your reasoning is highly logical and stands an excellent chance of playing out. However, Japan no longer attracts safe haven flows. The Swiss Franc, Kiwi and Loonie are more likely to do that than the Yen, but ultimately, the USD will take a huge chunk of any such flows... especially from emerging markets.

Honestly, I do not believe the debt ceiling issue will remain unresolved. In fact I expect it to be raised this weekend (Probably some time on Monday). The gov shutdown is not a major concern for the markets because they know the Fed is there as a backstop for any economic damage caused. A US default is a different story though as that is uncharted territory. My guess is that if all hell breaks loose, we shall witness the most amazing paradox and see the USD rally like in 2008.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #140
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:26pm Oct 11, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} you and me both dude! enjoy a relaxing weekend...
You too bro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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