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Sultans of Swing

  • #61
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:29am Oct 4, 2013 1:29am
ElliottwaveReboot outlook for the King of Cash: http://elliottwave5pointzeroreboot.b...y-elliott.html
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #62
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:50am Oct 4, 2013 1:50am
Quoting venzen
ElliottwaveReboot outlook for the King of Cash: http://elliottwave5pointzeroreboot.b...y-elliott.html

very interesting views...

i guess it makes total sense since the Bernanke Put will remain in place long after Bernanke is gone...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #63
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:56am Oct 4, 2013 1:56am
Quoting theDHT
Swissy CT Setup H4 {image}
got stopped out

still I think this trade has potential, will try again under better circumstances...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #64
  • Oct 4, 2013 2:02am Oct 4, 2013 2:02am
Euro Ozzie - Followup

Original Post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post7001405

Im still not on this one... though technically, it is starting to look more attractive...

patience = the way of the Jedi...

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro Ozzie H4 10.04.13.png Size: 50 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #65
  • Oct 4, 2013 2:08am Oct 4, 2013 2:08am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} very interesting views... i guess it makes total sense since the Bernanke Put will remain in place long after Bernanke is gone...

morning my friend.

I guess that decline to around 67 in the DXY could happen slowly over a year or it could happen in a few weeks! In my bearish view of the current macro situation, I expect that an exogenous event (or simply a collective turn in sentiment) will prompt a stock market decline which will continue for some time and rearrange the trends across all asset classes.In such an eventuality one would expect the Dollar to strengthen as investors flee equities. So, as long as the DXY points down we know everything is coasting along "new normally"

I'm wondering about the relationship between bonds (US Treasury bonds) and the value of the Dollar. In your view, is there an established correlation or is it a Keynesian monkey puzzle? Why i ask is because: seeing that a collapse (slow or fast) in debt instruments (as in the 2007/8 crash) will impact everything, any state or sovereign defaults will also affect bonds, so the impact of a bond collapse should also drive the USD up.

Yet, as the guy at ElliottwaveReboot says: it's a waste of time trying to match fundamentals to longterm wave counts!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #66
  • Oct 4, 2013 2:12am Oct 4, 2013 2:12am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} got stopped out still I think this trade has potential, will try again under better circumstances...

too bad. back up and try it again!

btw - i've settled on the USDSGD as my Dollar short instrument of choice. So far so good and a clear chart to work with!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #67
  • Oct 4, 2013 6:11am Oct 4, 2013 6:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I am banking on that entry zone being reached. I went long yesterday at 1.1235. Target 1.18 area. Wish me luck. It's a large position. Basically I am looking for a reversion to the 200 day ema before any more down. This should coincide with the 38.2% fibo at 1.1765 and of course I expect some penetration.
Im also in on this.

1.16 should be virtually guaranteed.... if beyond that 1.19 is in reach

ive seen this pattern a million times it feels like.

1.16 will see some turbulence and then form a wedge... which if breaks to upside is 1.19 potential

I am also like you and don't set my profit targets to the extremes. So 1.18 is wise.

Good luck to us both!
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #68
  • Oct 4, 2013 6:14am Oct 4, 2013 6:14am
Quoting venzen
who knows what's going on with Gold... PA is all rickety and shaky, retracing itself 3 and 4 times over, creeping up inch by painful inch. Perhaps there's a worn-out network cable connecting the outside world with the CME price feed... Don't think it's going to make target of 1337 today, coz at this rate it's stretching every available indicator to the max just to reach 1319 which is proving tough resistance. I guess another slow decline will follow whatever upside target is struck today...
the metals are putting in their "double bottom/higher low"

then its time for blastoff as speculation is that Yelen will be even more dovish than Bernanke

fundamentals support the technicals, once this consolidation phase ends.

will post some a chart in a moment.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #69
  • Edited 10:21am Oct 4, 2013 9:44am | Edited 10:21am
Gold wave progress update

based on the subwave B fulcrum just completed and the size of the prior A wave it seems wave C might target 1355 (as opposed to the closer 1337)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70
  • Oct 7, 2013 7:39pm Oct 7, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Im also in on this. 1.16 should be virtually guaranteed.... if beyond that 1.19 is in reach ive seen this pattern a million times it feels like. 1.16 will see some turbulence and then form a wedge... which if breaks to upside is 1.19 potential I am also like you and don't set my profit targets to the extremes. So 1.18 is wise. Good luck to us both!
...and it looks like it is playing out nicely so far
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71
  • Oct 7, 2013 7:43pm Oct 7, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} ...and it looks like it is playing out nicely so far
Great to hear! I haven't been checking the market except for once per day (Japan open) and forgot to check today...
Just set and forget so I can eliminate my emotions and just let the damn trade run!

I added yesteday at 1.1352, with stop loss 1.1318, hopefully it wasn't hit by intraday noise?

The big position is well in the money though and definitely wasn't stopped out.


I told you last year, eventually I'd learn this thing called patience! Now, lets see how long it takes to hit targets of 1.1550 and 1.1775!

Hopefully not too long, 2-6 weeks I'd say.


I'll try to stop in more EURANALYSIS (my home! first FF thread)
It seems like the only thread that actually does analysis on Euro... EURUSD just bickers at each other...


PT you were one of the first traders I met on here, and to this day,, you are still probably the most patient trader I have came across on FF.
Thanks for all the help I'll try not to be a stranger.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #72
  • Oct 7, 2013 8:01pm Oct 7, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting venzen
Gold wave progress update based on the subwave B fulcrum just completed and the size of the prior A wave it seems wave C might target 1355 (as opposed to the closer 1337)
love me some silver, best gains for an IRA (since there is no margin, but yes also own physical)

mmm $21.80 long

go go go for $26-$27.. pullback to $25-$24..then $32-$35 next target.

for gold the big ones are of course $1500-$1550 and $1750-$1800, with smaller turbulence between there at $1630-$1650
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #73
  • Oct 8, 2013 3:07am Oct 8, 2013 3:07am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} love me some silver, best gains for an IRA (since there is no margin, but yes also own physical) mmm $21.80 long go go go for $26-$27.. pullback to $25-$24..then $32-$35 next target. for gold the big ones are of course $1500-$1550 and $1750-$1800, with smaller turbulence between there at $1630-$1650

R2R,

indeed and indeed.

I'm currently long silver for the longrun. Gold is my main instrument and it has been tricky lately as it resolves some downside but I am currently long targeting 1335 (perhaps 1355) and then a final downside exploration should reveal longer term intentions.

One concern with Gold is that it is a standard portfolio asset and I fear all these long equity suckers will sell Gold as a first reaction to stockmarket turmoil - thereby pulling Gold down despite the macro concerns and fear that should be pushing it higher. So I am cautiously in and out without committing to a position right now.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #74
  • Oct 8, 2013 9:05pm Oct 8, 2013 9:05pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} R2R, indeed and indeed. I'm currently long silver for the longrun. Gold is my main instrument and it has been tricky lately as it resolves some downside but I am currently long targeting 1335 (perhaps 1355) and then a final downside exploration should reveal longer term intentions. One concern with Gold is that it is a standard portfolio asset and I fear all these long equity suckers will sell Gold as a first reaction to stockmarket turmoil - thereby pulling Gold down despite the macro concerns and fear that should be pushing it higher....
great analysis i agree about the equities causing liquidation of everything before we see the next super rally in all assets and a USD smashdown


Silver Percentage with Gold Overlay (not logarithmic)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silvergoldoverlaidlog.png Size: 273 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #75
  • Oct 8, 2013 9:21pm Oct 8, 2013 9:21pm
Silver Weekly (log)

The major debate for me right now is... will XAGJPY move more?

Why wouldn't it? Japans monetary policy set for years of inflation...
giving USD some strength which might lead to smaller gains in XAGUSD compared to XAGJPY.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silverweekly.png Size: 273 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: silverweeklyzoomedin.png Size: 191 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #76
  • Oct 9, 2013 12:04am Oct 9, 2013 12:04am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} great analysis i agree about the equities causing liquidation of everything before we see the next super rally in all assets and a USD smashdown Silver Percentage with Gold Overlay (not logarithmic) {image}

glad to hear you second that.

Great chart. I notice they both have that PA hook shape at the end of a long decline. I notice this on the intraday charts: most times, whenever there is a protracted (downward curving) decline it ends with a hook like that before rebounding skywards.

http://ubuntuone.com/7VB0PjSFjhHY6K2kgaT0IA
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #77
  • Oct 9, 2013 1:36am Oct 9, 2013 1:36am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} great analysis i agree about the equities causing liquidation of everything before we see the next super rally in all assets and a USD smashdown Silver Percentage with Gold Overlay (not logarithmic) {image}
and this confirms it...

QE4EVA >>> Janet Yellen to be named next Fed chair: White House

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101093040
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #78
  • Oct 9, 2013 2:51am Oct 9, 2013 2:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} and this confirms it... QE4EVA >>> Janet Yellen to be named next Fed chair: White House http://www.cnbc.com/id/101093040


and ever and ever and ever and ever.....
  • #79
  • Oct 9, 2013 3:29am Oct 9, 2013 3:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} and this confirms it... QE4EVA >>> Janet Yellen to be named next Fed chair: White House http://www.cnbc.com/id/101093040
Fundamentals and big time frame technical analysis always seem to align!

I'm very heavy into silver for a lot of fundamental reasons.
Most of which is Yelen + the increasing amount of countries doing currency swaps and bilateral trade agreements avoiding the USD
Then there is industrial demand which is what makes going long mostly silver instead of gold the most particularly attractive play.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #80
  • Edited 4:27am Oct 9, 2013 3:38am | Edited 4:27am
With the precious metals and the VIX so cheap, buy them both. You can't lose!

VIX is on the verge of a massive short squeeze

If equities crash big time (1200-1400 SPX) it will take the metals with it temporarily.

VIX will limit drawdowns and then you can cashout the VIX and add to your PM long
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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