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  • #841,501
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:04am Oct 8, 2013 11:04am
Quoting attila
{quote} spike being at the short end of the curve is not good news.. I think we're switching to panic mode..
Holy, you right, this will quickly become rampage.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #841,502
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:05am Oct 8, 2013 11:05am
Quoting ffleo
waiting for a big move of spx to happen, either up or down, but not today. patiently waiting.
hoho, going to happen soon
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #841,503
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:07am Oct 8, 2013 11:07am
See ya'll above 1.3700
  • #841,504
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:09am Oct 8, 2013 11:09am
Quoting Kofmaster
{quote} I didn't challenge anyone merely emphasizing the importance of volume, but some people got their mind shut off, you know that kind of things when people just refuse to believe, they will find all kind of reasons to reject it, so I dont want to waste time. Lets get back to trading

not true. if volume works for u or not that's ok with me. the forum is for discussion. but stating others are lessor traders because they are not using your (volume) method is silly and should be challenged. and u and i discussing this is what the forum is for, according to the rules i have read. my challenge is there is no central volume, and just like brokers have different prices, so do they have different volume.

watch the video, BB flat out states at times Cb's are dollar short. (meaning they dont have enough usd's on hand).. .. these billions+ will never be seen on a volume chart from your broker. and since they go through a central bank in the local country. it will not be reported, its a big secret. so the true demand is also secret.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #841,505
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:09am Oct 8, 2013 11:09am
Quoting TauTrader
See ya'll above 1.3700

logic behind this? I hope you don't make mistakes by looking at the yield curve and take positions for which you have to think for rest of the year
  • #841,506
  • Edited 11:27am Oct 8, 2013 11:12am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting mohan76
i can't play any more time to sleep
Cya later mate

edit: Ok am greedy as usuall, I cancel partial and lock at BE right now. May be wrong, but if 96,99 goes, we should be going to revisit 97,05 and possibly 97,25.
Edit: BE + lunch, my favourite . And placing new entry at 96,835.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #841,507
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:14am Oct 8, 2013 11:14am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} logic behind this? I hope you don't make mistakes by looking at the yield curve and take positions for which you have to think for rest of the year
sharp, sir Giveachance

No - logic based on options and futures. Certain members are discounting the value. So - i'm assuming myself totally wrong here.

But hey - at least I post entries..

Keep well

regards
  • #841,508
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:18am Oct 8, 2013 11:18am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} sharp, sir Giveachance No - logic based on options and futures. Certain members are discounting the value. So - i'm assuming myself totally wrong here. But hey - at least I post entries.. Keep well regards
I admit options aren't the most bearish looking short term (see vol surface below) , skews have tightened - but the US interest rate problem, if it escalates more is Super-Bullish USD. Like EURUSD under 1.32 in a few session bullish (if it escalates which it probs won't)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR surface.png Size: 208 KB
  • #841,509
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:21am Oct 8, 2013 11:21am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} I admit options aren't the most bearish looking short term (see vol surface below) , skews have tightened - but the US interest rate problem, if it escalates more is Super-Bullish USD. Like EURUSD under 1.32 in a few session bullish (if it escalates which it probs won't) {image}
Sir,

i do not know much..

But why would US problems make their currency stronger?

Honest Q

Regards
  • #841,510
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:22am Oct 8, 2013 11:22am
Quoting TauTrader
But hey - at least I post entries..
By that, others are just commentators
  • #841,511
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:25am Oct 8, 2013 11:25am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} sharp, sir Giveachance No - logic based on options and futures. Certain members are discounting the value. So - i'm assuming myself totally wrong here. But hey - at least I post entries.. Keep well regards

i missed this the first time
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #841,512
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:26am Oct 8, 2013 11:26am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} By that, others are just commentators
no comment
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #841,513
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:26am Oct 8, 2013 11:26am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Sir, i do not know much.. But why would US problems make their currency stronger? Honest Q Regards
Funding currency flight to liquidity is very bullish USD.

Also consider this chart of the USDCAD (why UCAD because its on my screen and cba load the EURUSD up). It shows that US yields have risen a lot in the past few days "pricing in" 1.0440 on USDCAD. But if it calms the yields will calm down back to FX value.

the US yields are rising rapidly and the curve is flattening means that swap spreads are decreasing therefore the USD is less attractive short / more attractive long - hence more demand - hence should be higher USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD vs yields.png Size: 65 KB
  • #841,514
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:28am Oct 8, 2013 11:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not true. if volume works for u or not that's ok with me. the forum is for discussion. but stating others are lessor traders because they are not using your (volume) method is silly and should be challenged. and u and i discussing this is what the forum is for, according to the rules i have read. my challenge is there is no central volume, and just like brokers have different prices, so do they have different volume. watch the video, BB flat out states at times Cb's are dollar short. (meaning they dont have enough usd's on hand).. .. these...
In Forex the volume does not represents the true trade size, instead it is a tick volume. And in Forex the Volume analysis only required tick volume which is the activity volume. Thats what volume spread analysis(VSA) all about, in forex we dont need the true trade size to analyse, i hope you understand that by now. gotta head to bed, anything lets continue tmr !
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #841,515
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:29am Oct 8, 2013 11:29am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Sir, i do not know much.. But why would US problems make their currency stronger? Honest Q Regards

i dont know why... maybe the worlds largest consumer buying less crap from china did it in 2008.. but the usd did get stronger that summer to the next.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #841,516
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:30am Oct 8, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Kofmaster
{quote} In Forex the volume does not represents the true trade size, instead it is a tick volume. And in Forex the Volume analysis only required tick volume which is the activity volume. Thats what volume all about, we dont need the true trade size to analyse, i hope you understand that by now. gotta head to bed, anything lets continue tmr !
unless you trade on reuters where you can link to all the OTC ECN's and you can see most of the FX spot and swap volume.
  • #841,517
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:30am Oct 8, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} By that, others are just commentators
Good day to you, Sir K

Not so..

Each and every post should be valued. Some less - some more..

I really, really do not want to become one of "those"

I am just a simple man.Chipping out some possible profits. No Guru. Nothing Special.

You can walk all over me in an instant. It is OK.

But putting a trade or 2 up on the charts - better than posting if this then that..

So yes

All the best to you
  • #841,518
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:32am Oct 8, 2013 11:32am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Funding currency flight to liquidity is very bullish USD. Also consider this chart of the USDCAD (why UCAD because its on my screen and cba load the EURUSD up). It shows that US yields have risen a lot in the past few days "pricing in" 1.0440 on USDCAD. But if it calms the yields will calm down back to FX value. the US yields are rising rapidly and the curve is flattening means that swap spreads are decreasing therefore the USD is less attractive short / more attractive long - hence more demand - hence should be higher USD {image}
As long as US govt will not default, its bullish, until its rating slips. Hence junk bonds set in.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #841,519
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:32am Oct 8, 2013 11:32am
Quoting TauTrader
Each and every post should be valued.

Some less - some more..

So yes
  • #841,520
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:34am Oct 8, 2013 11:34am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} As long as US govt will not default, its bullish, until its rating slips. Hence junk bonds set in.
If US has a technical default, it would still likely be bullish for USD
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