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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #37,821
  • Oct 7, 2013 8:55pm Oct 7, 2013 8:55pm
Quoting Baggi
For those of you who think that there will be a US Default, you've been watching too much television. There will be no US default. The US brings in more money than it owes, by a factor of 10. It would not default. Now, it does mean that a lot of people won't get paid. But this isn't the same thing as defaulting on a loan obligation.
After 5 years of pumping I think we are way overdue for a correction. It would not surprise me to see a correction. Housing prices in China,Hong Kong,Australia,Taiwan,US,Dubai are all in bubble territory now. Would be cheaper for Fed/Government to buy at lower prices than it would be at today's prices. They may finally let this bubble burst. This will create many buying opportunities then for many people.
  • #37,822
  • Oct 7, 2013 9:13pm Oct 7, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting Baggi
For those of you who think that there will be a US Default, you've been watching too much television. There will be no US default. The US brings in more money than it owes, by a factor of 10. It would not default. Now, it does mean that a lot of people won't get paid. But this isn't the same thing as defaulting on a loan obligation.
Maybe it brings in more because of QE. But trade says it all
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #37,823
  • Oct 7, 2013 9:33pm Oct 7, 2013 9:33pm
Quoting Baggi
For those of you who think that there will be a US Default, you've been watching too much television. There will be no US default. The US brings in more money than it owes, by a factor of 10. It would not default. Now, it does mean that a lot of people won't get paid. But this isn't the same thing as defaulting on a loan obligation.


You need to review the English language definition of “default” – the U.S. Treasury would not be able to make some or all interest payments on outstanding bonds. These are scheduled payments that they would miss, and this is on top of the treasury not being able to make some or all payments towards there other many liabilities. Yes, they are indeed defaulting on loan obligations.

You are probably thinking of the words “insolvency” and “bankruptcy” of which nobody has discussed both here and in the media.

This is exactly why the market, all of equity, debt and FX have been trading awkwardly of late and will continue to do so until it’s resolved.

Now, not many actually expect the US to default, the vast majority expects the government to resolve the issue on or before the deadline.
  • #37,824
  • Oct 7, 2013 10:12pm Oct 7, 2013 10:12pm
Quoting enterfx
Tracking this count for a potential ending diagonal.... {image}
adjusted count. may still be valid where the recent low was wave 3.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,825
  • Oct 7, 2013 10:16pm Oct 7, 2013 10:16pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} You need to review the English language definition of “default” – the U.S. Treasury would not be able to make some or all interest payments on outstanding bonds. These are scheduled payments that they would miss, and this is on top of the treasury not being able to make some or all payments towards there other many liabilities. Yes, they are indeed defaulting on loan obligations. You are probably thinking of the words “insolvency” and “bankruptcy” of which nobody has discussed both here and in the media. This is exactly why the market, all...
I can see another Lehman Brothers cooking up. Sure the US can print money and continue to print money but why buy at these prices when after the default they could buy at dirt cheap prices and save more trees buy printing less money. At cheaper prices they would require less money to buy. October is great for another crash. For those with cash on the side this would be an awesome opportunity created.
  • #37,826
  • Oct 7, 2013 11:57pm Oct 7, 2013 11:57pm
Gidday US/JPY

What happened there we pop to 97:nerd:
  • #37,827
  • Oct 8, 2013 12:04am Oct 8, 2013 12:04am
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday US/JPY What happened there we pop to 97:nerd:
97.10 should cap for the time being, according to my chart, UJ should be moving today towards 96.35
  • #37,828
  • Oct 8, 2013 12:31am Oct 8, 2013 12:31am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} 97.10 should cap for the time being, according to my chart, UJ should be moving today towards 96.35
I'll go long if it goes back to 96.35...
  • #37,829
  • Oct 8, 2013 12:32am Oct 8, 2013 12:32am
im short 96.83 so id like to see it drop.. find the bottom. then catch it long on the way up.
  • #37,830
  • Oct 8, 2013 12:42am Oct 8, 2013 12:42am
Quoting multi888
{quote} I'll go long if it goes back to 96.35...
why not all depends on PA at that time

Good luck
  • #37,831
  • Oct 8, 2013 12:47am Oct 8, 2013 12:47am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} 97.10 should cap for the time being, according to my chart, UJ should be moving today towards 96.35
here is my chart, shall the PA closes above the blue line (1H & 4H) then my analysis is invalid, let's see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,832
  • Oct 8, 2013 12:55am Oct 8, 2013 12:55am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} here is my chart, shall the PA closes above the blue line (1H & 4H) then my analysis is invalid, let's see {image}
not looking very positive at this stage.

but the downside risk is too big, i've offloaded some of my long in prepare for another dive. So in a way I hope you are right!
  • #37,833
  • Oct 8, 2013 1:03am Oct 8, 2013 1:03am
i bullish on it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #37,834
  • Oct 8, 2013 1:07am Oct 8, 2013 1:07am
Quoting Redddz
i bullish on it. {image}

Is that a Bullish Engulging candle?
  • #37,835
  • Oct 8, 2013 1:45am Oct 8, 2013 1:45am
Nearly there....

Very easy and predictable trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,836
  • Oct 8, 2013 1:51am Oct 8, 2013 1:51am
Quoting multi888
{quote} Is that a Bullish Engulging candle?
its going to be if it closes above yesterday high.
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #37,837
  • Oct 8, 2013 1:53am Oct 8, 2013 1:53am
From BarCaps spot FX desk

JPY

Without positive headlines from U.S., usdyen traded in well-offered breaking though 200DMA 96.70 level and printed a low of 96.55 in Sydney time with heavy supplies from CTA accounts. The expectation of weak Nikkei makes market more bearish and on technical as it opens below 200DMA, the bear momentum is likely to increase. Sell it on rally in short term is the card with s/l 97.20 or 97.50. On downside consistent demands from Japanese real money accounts slow the downside speed. The next key level to watch is aug low of 95.81.
  • #37,838
  • Oct 8, 2013 1:57am Oct 8, 2013 1:57am
Gidday US/JPY

Well wonder how far this will go

before it takes a dive.

Thought it was going to hell:nerd:
  • #37,839
  • Oct 8, 2013 4:22am Oct 8, 2013 4:22am
Quoting Baggi
For those of you who think that there will be a US Default, you've been watching too much television. There will be no US default. The US brings in more money than it owes, by a factor of 10. It would not default. Now, it does mean that a lot of people won't get paid. But this isn't the same thing as defaulting on a loan obligation.
by a factor of 10...yeah...so...debt servicing isnt the only thing the govt has to spend money on.

but regardless, if the date comes and the debt ceiling doesnt get rise...the whole world will be in a "sell first ask question later" mode
  • #37,840
  • Oct 8, 2013 5:25am Oct 8, 2013 5:25am
...and all this is doing my portfolio no good at all.
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