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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #37,781
  • Oct 7, 2013 10:34am Oct 7, 2013 10:34am
Tracking this count for a potential ending diagonal....


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  • #37,782
  • Oct 7, 2013 10:44am Oct 7, 2013 10:44am
uj in for a rough ride again.
  • #37,783
  • Oct 7, 2013 10:55am Oct 7, 2013 10:55am
Quoting enterfx
Tracking this count for a potential ending diagonal.... {image}
That puts us around thursday with the possible jump yeah? Could be strengthened depending the new thursday. hopefully a shutdown is figured by then lol
  • #37,784
  • Oct 7, 2013 11:19am Oct 7, 2013 11:19am
Quoting nbwilson23
{quote} That puts us around thursday with the possible jump yeah? Could be strengthened depending the new thursday. hopefully a shutdown is figured by then lol

Not making a call of any sort. My count is purely an observation. PA is currently very bearish... However, if this is a 4th of an ED it could be finished by tomorrow
  • #37,785
  • Oct 7, 2013 11:48am Oct 7, 2013 11:48am
Quoting edindzeko
Im long at 97 with 1/3 position size as normal
Hmmmm......
  • #37,786
  • Oct 7, 2013 11:51am Oct 7, 2013 11:51am
China tells US to avoid default...

China already has 15 trillion worth of FX as big players have gone into mutual swaps ... simply making noise http://files.hotstockmarket.com/imag...ies/tongue.gif

Raise the debt ceiling, This will devalue dollar, accept it and move on...
  • #37,787
  • Oct 7, 2013 11:54am Oct 7, 2013 11:54am
sure it will devalue the dollar. but are we down right now purely because of chance of default?
thinking market/spec based. It seems like this is a downtrend due to the shutdown. shutdown ends/debt ceiling averted. we should see a spike back up. to where and for how long who knows. but id be hardpressed to believe that with the shutdown ended and ceiling raised, we wouldnt get a nice quick bump up from 97.
  • #37,788
  • Oct 7, 2013 11:57am Oct 7, 2013 11:57am
Quoting nbwilson23
sure it will devalue the dollar. but are we down right now purely because of chance of default? thinking market/spec based. It seems like this is a downtrend due to the shutdown. shutdown ends/debt ceiling averted. we should see a spike back up. to where and for how long who knows. but id be hardpressed to believe that with the shutdown ended and ceiling raised, we wouldnt get a nice quick bump up from 97.
We should get a bounce from this 97 area back up to 98 but right now it looks like we're gonna make a new low, something like 96.50. I've got my stop outside of that on my long and might even ride the short train down there in the meantime.
  • #37,789
  • Oct 7, 2013 12:02pm Oct 7, 2013 12:02pm
agreed. ive got my S/L at 96. even with new lows i dont see it going down that far. and if it does. i dont wanna be in it long lol. while we may WANT that 100+ jump lol.

I may have to be happy with 98s. profit is profit.
  • #37,790
  • Oct 7, 2013 12:04pm Oct 7, 2013 12:04pm
Quoting nbwilson23
sure it will devalue the dollar. but are we down right now purely because of chance of default? thinking market/spec based. It seems like this is a downtrend due to the shutdown. shutdown ends/debt ceiling averted. we should see a spike back up. to where and for how long who knows. but id be hardpressed to believe that with the shutdown ended and ceiling raised, we wouldnt get a nice quick bump up from 97.
US cannot have the cake and eat it too...

Spending cuts will push economy to recession and all phony recovery from 2008 falls in vein.. Ben Bernanke knows it..

They need to raise ceiling, assuming one fine day in 2040 US FED can raise interest rates
  • #37,791
  • Oct 7, 2013 12:10pm Oct 7, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting nbwilson23
agreed. ive got my S/L at 96. even with new lows i dont see it going down that far. and if it does. i dont wanna be in it long lol. while we may WANT that 100+ jump lol. I may have to be happy with 98s. profit is profit.
I'd be happy at 98. Probably just move the stop up unless it got really bullish with USD shutdown news, debt ceiling, etc.
  • #37,792
  • Oct 7, 2013 2:07pm Oct 7, 2013 2:07pm
USDJPY vs US-JP 10 year benchamrk spread on a longer term, current divergence in divergence suggesting Buying both USTs and USDJPY means great risk adjusted returns.

A shorter term look at the 2's spread suggests upside for USDJPY - just need equity markets to pick up
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  • #37,793
  • Oct 7, 2013 2:15pm Oct 7, 2013 2:15pm
4 hour chart is showing divergence now... good for bulls.
  • #37,794
  • Oct 7, 2013 3:10pm Oct 7, 2013 3:10pm
I closed my longs on loss I don't want to invest on dollar now for some weeks
  • #37,795
  • Oct 7, 2013 3:15pm Oct 7, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting iahmedz
I closed my longs on loss I don't want to invest on dollar now for some weeks
96.50 should be support
  • #37,796
  • Oct 7, 2013 3:20pm Oct 7, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting JeremyWS
USDJPY vs US-JP 10 year benchamrk spread on a longer term, current divergence in divergence suggesting Buying both USTs and USDJPY means great risk adjusted returns. A shorter term look at the 2's spread suggests upside for USDJPY - just need equity markets to pick up {image} {image}
Well that changed quickly...
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  • #37,797
  • Oct 7, 2013 3:22pm Oct 7, 2013 3:22pm
Quoting iahmedz
I closed my longs on loss I don't want to invest on dollar now for some weeks
sorry to hear mate, good idea take a rest, don't revenge trade and be patient, let PA come your way
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #37,798
  • Oct 7, 2013 3:31pm Oct 7, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Well that changed quickly... {image}
Left hand Y axis is upside down...

either that or change Bid spread to ask spread.
  • #37,799
  • Oct 7, 2013 3:44pm Oct 7, 2013 3:44pm
If 95.80 gets taken out, it's going to get fun.
  • #37,800
  • Oct 7, 2013 3:44pm Oct 7, 2013 3:44pm
There is an important economic event happening tonight not listed in the calendar that “could” move both the Nikkei and USD/JPY, though I would think limited. There will be an auction for 10-year Inflation-Indexed JGBs, the first of its kind since 2008 and could be a proxy in gauging the confidence level of BOJ and Japanese government policies regarding reflation.

Probably nothing a medium or long term trader should care about, however with all the scalpers here it should be noted if you’re in or about to initiate a trade.

10:30 Auction Notice of 10-year Inflation-Indexed JGBs
2:45 Auction Result of 10-year Inflation-Indexed JGBs

The times posted are in JST, the source being the MOF.
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