EurAnalysis

PLEASE DO NOT SHOOT THE MESSENGER...

GEAB shockingly says, "Historians will certainly consider the 2008 crisis as a warning shot before that of 2013. All of the world’s regions won’t be a can be summarized as the following affected the same way but all will suffer. According to LEAP/ E2020 the stages of this second crisis as follows:
-end 2013, financial impact: collapse of financial markets especially in the US and Japan. Banks can no longer be saved by the states and BAIL-Ins are put in place;
-end 2013 / 2014 spreading to the real economy: The financial impasse causes / reveals a major world recession and the reduction of international trade;
-2014, social impact: The economic deterioration causes unemployment to explode, in the United States the dollar’s decline lowers the standard of living, riots mushroom everywhere;
-2014 political crisis: the governments of the most affected countries are under fire for their handling of the crisis, forced resignations and early elections are expected, if not coups;
-2014-2015, international management of the crisis: together Euroland and the BRICS impose a new international monetary system and lay down the basis of new global governance;
-2015: The least affected regions have exited the crisis definitively;
-2018: It will take the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan five years to purge themselves of the crisis with, ultimately, a greatly reduced standard of living and a considerable loss of global influence (resulting from their refusal to participate in the re-casting of global governance on new bases)."

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...over-the-globe

Snippet:

Now that "bail-ins" have become accepted practice all over the planet, no bank account and no pension fund will ever be 100% safe again. In fact, Cyprus-style wealth confiscation is already starting to happen all around the world. As you will read about below, private pension funds were just raided by the government in Poland, and a "bail-in" is being organized for one of the largest banks in Italy. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. The precedent that was set in Cyprus is being used as a template for establishing bail-in procedures in New Zealand, Canada and all over Europe. It is only a matter of time before we see this exact same type of thing happen in the United States as well. From now on, anyone that keeps a large amount of money in any single bank account or retirement fund is being incredibly foolish.
Let's take a look at a few of the examples of how Cyprus-style wealth confiscation is now moving forward all over the globe...
Poland
For years, there have been rumors that someday the U.S. government would raid private pension funds.
Well, in Poland it just happened.
According to Reuters, private pension funds were raided in order to reduce the size of the government debt...
Poland said on Wednesday it will transfer to the state many of the assets held by private pension funds, slashing public debt but putting in doubt the future of the multi-billion-euro funds, many of them foreign-owned.

The Polish government is doing the best that it can to make this sound like some sort of complicated legal maneuver, but the truth is that what they have done is stolen private assets without giving any compensation in return...
The Polish pension funds' organisation said the changes may be unconstitutional because the government is taking private assets away from them without offering any compensation.
Announcing the long-awaited overhaul of state-guaranteed pensions, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said private funds within the state-guaranteed system would have their bond holdings transferred to a state pension vehicle, but keep their equity holdings.
He said that what remained in citizens' pension pots in the private funds will be gradually transferred into the state vehicle over the last 10 years before savers hit retirement age.

CurrencyMan

As Was Said In Other Articles - This Is The New Reality As The House Of Cards Collapses

http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahtou...may-come-next/

Jamie Loses Some Power

Snippet:

It doesn’t seem like a big deal considering all the scrutiny he’s been under but Jamie Dimon’s move to give up the bank chairman role at JPMorgan Chase may be the beginning of something more ominous.
http://b-i.forbesimg.com/halahtourya...0/251x3001.jpgYesterday news broke that JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon is stepping down as chairman of the company’s banking subsidiary. The role is now held by former Johnson & Johnson Chairman and CEO William Weldon.

It’s an interesting development for JPM and Dimon. The bank has been under lots of pressure from regulators since its 2012 $6 billion London Whale loss. Dimon was even brought down to Washington to testify before lawmakers about the ordeal. It hasn’t been easy for Dimon or JPM since.
Most recently, JPM appears to be on the hook for a giant settlement with regulators which some report could top $11 billion–one of the biggest Wall Street deals in history. Last week Dimon met with Attorney General Eric Holder to discuss the settlement after his bank’s offer to settle was reportedly rejected.

And Now For David Stockman and My Bedtime

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...astrophic.html

Snippet:

Eric King: “How dangerous are these policies they are pursuing?”


Stockman: “I think they are extremely dangerous because the heart of capitalism is the financial markets, and they have completely destroyed any kind of honest price discovery ... It’s all part of a doctrine that’s destined to blow up in my judgement.”


Eric King: “As you watch this end game unfolding, David, I’m just wondering how disastrous this will be?”


Stockman: “It’s going to be catastrophic. The market has bid up financial assets of all types, and if confidence is ever broken due to an unexpected event, a black swan, or a Lehman event, I think there will be massive selling. There won’t be any bids, and the Fed will be hard-pressed to make a new rescue regime like it did in September of 2008. After all, interest rates are already at zero, it can’t radically drop them like it did back then.


I think we’re on the edge at the present time. Sooner or later the Fed can’t print enough money, buy enough bonds, or inject enough liquidity into the market to prevent real pricing from reemerging. And when it does the price of everything will be reset much lower. There will be huge losses. All of the leveraged positions will be unwound, and it will start a general contagion in the financial system which will rip through all categories of assets with extreme speed and violence.


And so if we know that everything is artificially and dramatically inflated, when the correction comes and the bubble bursts, it’s going to be severe. I don’t see how the elevator, which is going to plunge down the shaft, gets stopped this time around.”


Eric King: “How frightening will that period of chaos you just described be for investors?”


Stockman: “There is every reason to believe that it will be outside the range of prior experience. Once it is clear that the Fed is out of ammunition, I think it’s going to cause an even greater wave of panic than we had last time (in 2008). I think it’s a ship of fools (the Fed). They have enormous power over the entire financial system, not only domestically, but over the entire global system. It tells you why this doctrine of monetary central planning is so destructive and dangerous. No twelve people should be in a position to unleash this kind of turmoil.”


Eric King: “In the 1970s we saw the 25-fold move in gold, before you guys (Stockman, Volcker & Dr. Roberts) rescued the system. But this time around we’ve already seen gold up almost 800% (at the peak in 2011). It almost sounds like gold could repeat or even outperform what we saw in the 1970s as this chaos really starts to unfold.”


Stockman: “The upside for gold is unfathomable. If the monetary system really unwinds because the central banks take it to the edge, and over, there’s no telling how far gold could rise.”


IMPORTANT - The information above is only a small portion of what Stockman had to say in his extraordinary audio interview. The KWN audio interview with David Stockman discussing financial collapse, a coming flight to gold, the end game and more is available now and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE.


UPDATE - This is Part I in a series of written interviews that have now been released with David Stockman.


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...eformation.jpg
David A. Stockman: Former Dir. of the US Office of Management and Budget, Economic Policy Maker, Politician, Financier & Acclaimed Author of New York Times best-seller, “The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America.

And Just For Fun - Bill Gross

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pag...e-Fittest.aspx

Snippet:

Speaking of questions with no answers: 1) investors wonder what happened to the taper, 2) why the Fed seemed to change its mind and 3) where of course do we go from here? A few days before the September meeting, I tweeted that the Fed would “tinker rather than taper,” which was close to the end result, but still not totally accurate. They refused to budge, with an uncertain economy being the explanation. Ben Bernanke sort of sat back and did nothing, just like Mother Nature with her crows and bugs. The debate though is actually only so much noise in the scheme of things. The Fed will have to taper, cease and then desist someday. They can’t just keep adding one trillion dollars to their balance sheet every year without something negative happening – either accelerating inflation, a tanking dollar or a continued unwillingness on the part of corporations to invest because of the resultant low and unacceptable returns on investment. QE (quantitative easing) has to die sometime.Just like Mother Nature, death and creative destruction seem to be part of the Grand Economic Scheme.

What matters most for bond and other investors though is not timing of the taper nor the endpoint of QE, but the policy rate: 1) how long it stays where it is, 2) what is the long-term neutral rate in a highly levered economy and 3) can a chastened central bank convince investors that it knows the answer and can be trusted to stick to it?

It’s the policy rate, both spot and forward, that prices markets and drives economies and investment decisions. QEs were simply a necessary medicine for rather uncertain and illiquid times. Now that more certainty and more liquidity have been restored, it’s time for the policy rate and forward guidance to assume control. Janet Yellen, future Fed Chairperson, would agree, as would oft-quoted Michael Woodford, Columbia University professor and 2012 Jackson Hole speaker, who seems to have become the private sector’s philosophical guru for guidance and benchmarks, that will now attempt to convince an investment public that what you hear is what you get.

But if QE is soon to be out, and guidance soon to be what remains, I think investors should listen and invest accordingly. Not with total innocence, but sort of like a totally hyena-aware lion cub – knowing there’s bad things that can happen out there in the jungle, but for now enjoying the all clear silence of the African plain. In bond parlance, the all clear sign would mean that the Fed believes what it says, and if their guideposts have any credibility, they won’t be raising policy rates until 2016 or even beyond. The critical question to ask in terms of the level and eventual upward guide path of the policy rate is how high a rate can a levered economy stand? How much wood can a woodchuck chuck? How high a rate can a homebuyer handle? No one really knows, but we’re beginning to find out. The increase of over 125 basis points in a 30-year mortgage over the past 6–12 months seems to have stopped housing starts and importantly mortgage refinancings in its tracks. It was the primary “financial condition” that Chairman Bernanke cited in his September press conference that shifted the “taper to a tinker to a chance” that maybe they might do something next time.

The 30-year mortgage rate of course is connected to the policy rate and its pricing in forward space. All yields in composite are what an economy has to hurdle in order to grow at historically hoped-for rates at 2–3% real and 4–5% nominal: Treasury yields, mortgage yields, corporate yields and credit card yields, all in composite. Ray Dalio and company at Bridgewater have the concept down pat. The objective, Dalio writes, is to achieve a “beautiful deleveraging,” which assumes minimal defaults and an eventual return of investors’ willingness to take risk again. The beautiful deleveraging of course takes place at the expense of private market savers via financially repressed interest rates, but what the heck. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and if the Fed’s (and Dalio’s) objective is to grow normally again, then there is likely no more beautiful or deleveraging solution than one that is accomplished via abnormally low interest rates for a long, long time. It is PIMCO’s belief that Yellen, Woodford and Dalio are right. If you want to trust one thing and one thing only, trust that once QE is gone and the policy rate becomes the focus, that fed funds will then stay lower than expected for a long, long time. Right now the market (and the Fed forecasts) expects fed funds to be 1% higher by late 2015 and 1% higher still by December 2016. Bet against that.

The reason to place your bet on the “don’t come” 2016 line is what we have just experienced over the past few months. We have seen a 3% Treasury yield and a 4½% 30-year mortgage rate and the economy peeked its head out its hole like a groundhog on its special day and decided to go back inside for another metaphorical six weeks. No spring or summer in sight at those yields. The U.S. (and global economy) may have to get used to financially repressive – and therefore low policy rates – for decades to come. As the accompanying chart shows, the last time the U.S. economy was this highly levered (early 1940s) it took over 25 years of 10-year Treasury rates averaging 3% less than nominal GDP to accomplish a “beautiful deleveraging.” That would place the 10-year Treasury at close to 1% and the policy rate at 25 basis points until sometime around 2035! I’m not gonna stick my neck out for that – April, May and June of 2013 have taught me a lesson that low yields can become high yields almost overnight. But they should stay abnormally low. A highly levered U.S. and global economy cannot deleverage “beautifully” without repressive future policy rates, which in turn help to contain 5s and 10s although with much less confidence and more volatility as investors have seen recently.

high time to transform he forex spot market and the inter-dealer spot markets to something like this http://www.cmegroup.com/globex/
centralized transparent data providing the same quotes for every participant....

Hi All,

Weekend thoughts. Firstly, thanks to CurrencyMan, some great posts as usual. I especially benefited from the explanation of the Fed balance sheet - whereas this info is readily available the article breakdown of what it MEANS and IMPLIES is very insightful!

I am (and have been for 10 years) an all-out bear on the current global economy and financial system. Yet, repeated losses at anticipating the "onset of implosion" have transformed me into a patient bear. I have for years been reading Elliott Wave International and other bearish/contrarian analyses that (without fail and on a monthly basis) found new signs that the situation is actually much much worse than previously thought and advised readers to short this, short that NOW and convert to cash/gold asap. Eventhough, in 2009, analysts were screaming off the page that the global macro had finally reached full retard - and could provide ample sound evidence of such - the sky has not fallen down. What HAS happened is that the market opportunistically took advantage of the QE and extra time till impact. I, like so many others, "foolishly" lost capital on 100s of successive failed entries shorting equities throughout the period.

That there will be a catastrophic and uncontrolled collapse is 99.9% sure. The extent of it can be deduced (as per GEAB breakdown for example) but the moment of onset is unknown. It is here that I have turned my thoughts with some unpleasant realisations. By converting nominal values to constant Dollar, or even "priced in Gold" charts, it can be said that collapse has been ongoing since 2000. Yet our accounts and instruments are priced currently and nominally and we have to trade the charts presently on our screen. Low rates and QE are ongoing and the bond crisis and Fed corner painting continues - and not surprisingly the markets and participants are OK with that. Gold is down, equities are up and complacency rules the waves. From this perspective I argue that, for now, there is no reason to believe that the point of global collapse is specifically determinable. It could be within a week or a Fibonacci 8 years. We cannot know.

But this is the doomsayer's dramatic device and each of our inner-voices' fearful clincher: "When collapse DOES happen it will be sudden and devastating - once in motion it will be too late to take action". Well, if this is the case then by necessity we all helplessly await the circuit breakers and broker service shut-downs. We couldn't trade the collapse because the markets will be "protectively shut" or our brokers will go offline. Oanda users have in the past few months experienced pervasive connectivity lock-out on at least 3 occasions at the moment of great price shifts. This is the shape of things to come. Ironically, we have to hope the collapse is "controlled" in order for us to be able to continue plying our trade. That GEAB gradual collapse will be ideal despite the sincere desire of many malcontents (including yours truly) wishing to see the many-headed Beast come crashing down in apocalyptic catharsis.

So, in the face of inevitable electronic market disruptions and strategic shutdowns the option I see for us as retail traders is to think and plan tactically. Take profits by hit-and-run like the insurgent guerillas of 20th century history. There are numerous threads to this analogy, but importantly we have two similar advantages in our favour: The enemy is slow and cumbersome. We are fast and agile. To conserve valuable ammunition, take aim with limitless concentration and make every shot count. Every trader must assess the objective situation for themselves and think and act accordingly: Either stay out of this market; or accept the risks and opt in. If you're in, then realize that you have an enemy in your camp: your broker is both insider to your trades, SLs and TPs, as well as unregulated enough to limit access to your account, spike it's prices and basically do what it likes in the event of systemic failure (and not!). With the sly informant as the only go-between for us to access the market, we have to think defensively in terms of the broker and make our market attacking tactic of choice the skirmish: Take quick profit and fall back into the jungle to watch and strategise the next ambush from a defensive position. These are not my original thoughts but the lessons of Guevara from his manual "Guerilla Warfare" - I think they are directly applicable to our situation in this market. Don't get yourself in a position you cannot quickly extract from without losses. Take what you can and give nothing back!

http://artinvestment.ru/content/down...cienfuegos.jpg
Che and Camillo on reconnaissance in the Sierra Maestra

Monthly is Still Long..............

Weekly is still long.......

Double top is coming up, but I don't trade those................

ADX is strong Long .....

Stochcastics and RSIOMA are topping but still long..............

EU - Daily

Nearing a Top, could have one more push long before coming lower......

ADX has Power to the long side still...........

USA news will still play with this PA.............

H4 - Price is Holding Long........

Mixed to coming down for now.............

Nice work indeed fxa......if push comes to shove ..i sell the next push and see how the shove panes out

hi Alien and Pablo,

Alien, thanks for the great charts and forecasts. I am not trading the EU but the implication is that USD is going down which is good for my long position Gold.

Tnk, a rebound within the channel is quite possible. IMO. USA news will drive PA.

Hi Venzen,
I saw you like much gold in the latest. True?

hi jp,

i am 100% Gold for about a month now. Every inch of screen space has some TF of Gold on it with different periods RSI and Stochastics. I only study Gold. I only think... Gold. When I dream it is of the yellow metal.

the future is... Gold.

V..haven't been trading gold in yrs..but if it goes to 600 ill buy it physical

yeah! you, the population of India, all those new Chinese housewives with Yuan to splash, and the seemingly endless supply of US hicks that have a nuke-a-ler shelter and a piece of "the other precious metal" with 10,000 rounds! I've thought about it long and hard and I think the floor where those "must have" buyers start piling in is currently at $1,300. Here in Thailand the Gold price is frontpage news and whenever there's a dip, the queues form outside the Gold shops. I reckon the buying intensifies toward $1,000 - but as a theoretical unreachable minimum.

I used to own physical, but then realised the physical was actually a liability which increased exponentially as the circumstances which I bought it for approached. I mean, in a Mad Max world, who is going to want Gold? So I sold it for "useful" cash in the bank.

i dont kno hw one would trade for smaller amounts...and goodies...gold shavings? ps if u kno of a lonely Chinese housewife with Yuan to splash...let me kno will U .......on second thoughts..I may be in for a domestic match....

we share the same addiction