USD/JPY Discussion

long at 97.260 and 97.294. Showing support 97.190s

I will say one more thing, if 96.40 holds, might be a big move north. Would really like to see 96.80 hold, but 96.40 is the max.

New Positions:

SLD 4 OCT11 0.01005 Put Fut. Option (6J2) 0.0000070
SLD 2 OCT11 0.01050 Call Fut. Option (6J2) 0.0000080

Existing Positions:

SLD 3 OCT04 0.00985 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000060
SLD 2 OCT04 0.01035 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000090

Position Summary:

My existing short PUT position is no doubt going to expire OTM tomorrow afternoon. I feel very confident my short CALL position will do the same, however it does hold a small risk, but I will accept assignment should it drop below 0.01035 (or about 76.50 in spot terms).

My new position has been modified to reflect current prices, and what’s available in the options market. My preferred range of 101 – 97 is showing weakness, and weakness to the downside at that. We did in fact trade below 97 over the last 24 hours, but it was defended very well from a further slide and bounced right back up.

Let’s get to the PUT side first, we are a long way from 0.01005 (or about 99.50 in spot terms) so I feel safe in that regard, however it does conflict with my opinion that, still, any price within 101 – 97 is attainable at any moment. This position is somewhat hedged in my account by being LONG Nikkei (I’m not posting equity trades on this forum) since weakness in yen usually means bullish for Japanese equities, the exporters specifically.

Now the CALL side, definitely more interesting here. The premiums are higher on the CALL side to reflect the current environment, mostly related to US macroeconomic policies so I can go deeper out and still get a decent premium (risk/reward). I went all the way up (or down depending on if you trade futures vs. spot) to 0.01050 (or about 95.00 in spot terms). Even if price does go beyond this, I still feel safe being assigned knowing that it “should” be only temporary until US policies are sorted out.

My ratio this week is 4:2 (or 2:1) on the PUT side reflecting a current lack of yen weakness.

I was long at 97.73. Took it 2days ago.

Bonjour mademoiselle, ca va?

I am primarily trading it as a fundamental dollar trade.

long @96.96

SL ?

I seldom use one. but in this case 96.50

watch the ej looks pretty bearish

I sold three times @ 97.12 for 97.08... good scalp oppertunity :-p

I have two long positions, one at 97.40.
Provided that your leverage is low you can just wait....

if weekly support holds, target for 98.40. then 99.20, then 99.40 then 100. before 100.60.

swing opportunity -> GBPUSD swing down from resistance top big range daily. if EURUSD can do the same, dollar might strengthen. still yen have to stop owning the crosses too.

Up above the world so high :-p

my real concern is that cca 70% or retail traders are long here. I'm not comfort when everybody is on the one side of the boat. I don't care about government problems in US or BoJ or whatever..this is a consolidation before another powerful rally up, maybe another leg down for cleaning the SL but the uptrend is intact. timing and deep pockets is all that we need, knowing the general trend sometimes is not enough.

My view is that uj to move toward 95.40 region any upside is better for shorting than to take long positions. ej is also looking ominously bearish. unless there's any dramatic upside movement to change this it's still the same next week.

Do not know why UJ is so weak especially given the certainty. UJ's been trying to go up since last night buthas been consistently pressed down.

The zig zag pa could be a Ending diagonal. If it is, it might signal a reverse when finished.

Several tfs is now showing nice divergence and oversold on daily tf. but I'd be cautios especially late on a friday.

This manipulation does not surprise me one bit. Now that Obama has cancelled his trip to Asia I believe we could see 95 to 96 to the $

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ipulation.html

I knew some manipulation had taken place recently. Those reversals I had mentioned before were way beyond normal

UJ Daily

Still holding.... tic toc

When Americans have manipulated market... we should not think it will go down anymore. Americans will not let it go down anymore. You know, america thinks himself supreme. They will do their best to hide that their economy is worthless in actual.