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Genesis Matrix Trading

  • #18,261
  • Oct 3, 2013 5:38pm Oct 3, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting jjre65
{quote} I wonder how many mice he/she wears out making all those clicks! Poor bugger must be going insane J
I was talking to someone yesterday who has averaged down on bad trades on EU to the extent that a margin call is inevitable...they are down something in the region of 4,000 pips!! All this averaging down/martingale etc etc is something that I will never understand in a million years. I bet that person in the link you just read wishes and cry's because he didn't simply take the loss when it was available. Why dig such a huge hole? Just take the loss, learn from it, and move on.....how hard is that?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,262
  • Oct 3, 2013 5:59pm Oct 3, 2013 5:59pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} I was talking to someone yesterday who has averaged down on bad trades on EU to the extent that a margin call is inevitable...they are down something in the region of 4,000 pips!! All this averaging down/martingale etc etc is something that I will never understand in a million years. I bet that person in the link you just read wishes and cry's because he didn't simply take the loss when it was available. Why dig such a huge hole? Just take the loss, learn from it, and move on.....how hard is that?
Adding to losing positions is the same as inverted pyramiding. It is the complete opposite of what to do.
Hoping and praying that the market will turn for you is the end of the line. Even if it does turn and the trade turns good, it is only reinforcing poor decision making, which is worse, because the trader will do it again, and again.
I really took on board Marcel Links take on the correct way to pyramid trades.
Personally Im not at the pyramid level. I try to only take what I know are good set ups and risk the same on every trade, except on occasion when all the planets line up and I might take 2 positions on entry, and exit 1 if the trade goes either way as PA moves. Ive only done this a couple of times, and the set ups were so good that they rocketed into very good trades.

J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #18,263
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:10pm Oct 3, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting jjre65
{quote} Adding to losing positions is the same as inverted pyramiding. It is the complete opposite of what to do. Hoping and praying that the market will turn for you is the end of the line. Even if it does turn and the trade turns good, it is only reinforcing poor decision making, which is worse, because the trader will do it again, and again. I really took on board Marcel Links take on the correct way to pyramid trades. Personally Im not at the pyramid level. I try to only take what I know are good set ups and risk the same on every trade, except...
Pyramiding can work well and I do it from time to time. I remember talking to PM1 about this a little back and I promised to talk about it here......but then all this testing got in the way so it will have to wait for another time
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,264
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:15pm Oct 3, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Pyramiding can work well and I do it from time to time. I remember talking to PM1 about this a little back and I promised to talk about it here......but then all this testing got in the way so it will have to wait for another time
Looking fwd to that when it happens!

Cheers J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #18,265
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:31pm Oct 3, 2013 6:31pm
Quoting jjre65
{quote} Looking fwd to that when it happens! Cheers J
Just very briefly....GU, when it turns (which might be soon, check out the Daily and Weekly charts), is likely to fall 1,000 pips back to the major support. If you were to short that and hold your trade, you might make 1,000 pips.

But think of this, when your trade gets to +100, move your SL to +50, and then enter another short. When the first trade gets to +200, move the SL to +100, and move the 2nd trade SL to +50 and enter a third short.....etc etc etc. As the move 'breathes', you may get a trade knocked out at +50 (so what?), and you can re-enter that trade when the bear run resumes......same rules as before.

Doing it like this there is very limited losses possible, but potential to turn that 1,000 pip drop into something much more eyewateringly profitable!!

The same can be done on intraday trades but it's a bit more tricky to do.....same principal applies though
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,266
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:41pm Oct 3, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Just very briefly....GU, when it turns (which might be soon, check out the Daily and Weekly charts), is likely to fall 1,000 pips back to the major support. If you were to short that and hold your trade, you might make 1,000 pips. But think of this, when your trade gets to +100, move your SL to +50, and then enter another short. When the first trade gets to +200, move the SL to +100, and move the 2nd trade SL to +50 and enter a third short.....etc etc etc. As the move 'breathes', you may get a trade knocked out at +50 (so what?), and you...
Simple and effective

Cheers J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #18,267
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:45pm Oct 3, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting jjre65
{quote} Simple and effective Cheers J
Yep....I'm keeping an eye on GU for exactly this reason. I've never done it on a long term event like this that I'm proposing, but I'm very keen to give it a shot.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,268
  • Oct 3, 2013 7:16pm Oct 3, 2013 7:16pm
CT long on GJ Tokyo open 5-15 method.
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #18,269
  • Oct 3, 2013 7:26pm Oct 3, 2013 7:26pm
Quoting jjre65
CT long on GJ Tokyo open 5-15 method.
Yeah that move started with the BRN bounce just before Tokyo....but I missed it...lol
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,270
  • Oct 3, 2013 7:30pm Oct 3, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Yeah that move started with the BRN bounce just before Tokyo....but I missed it...lol
Stalling now, and a good place to get shaken out

However when this happens and 15/30/H1 stochs are in agreement I try to think of PA as a bow being drawn back to fire an PA arrow at TP...............
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #18,271
  • Oct 3, 2013 9:41pm Oct 3, 2013 9:41pm
Quoting jjre65
{quote} Stalling now, and a good place to get shaken out However when this happens and 15/30/H1 stochs are in agreement I try to think of PA as a bow being drawn back to fire an PA arrow at TP...............
Well that didnt work out
Forgot about a doctors appt so had to dash out.....left TP and SL in place.
The risk was taking the trade headed to the DP
M1 was the entry to take......................in hindsight

Oh well...................on to the next trade............and beyond!

J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #18,272
  • Oct 3, 2013 10:15pm Oct 3, 2013 10:15pm
Goodmorning all,

can someone help me to understand why most of the japanese news are "tentatively" announced? Does it depend on their precise culture or anything else?
You control how you trade; the market controls how and when you'll get paid
  • #18,273
  • Oct 3, 2013 10:29pm Oct 3, 2013 10:29pm
Quoting wiz3003
Goodmorning all, can someone help me to understand why most of the japanese news are "tentatively" announced? Does it depend on their precise culture or anything else?
Because Japanese officials hate 'speculators'....they blame 'speculators' for just about everything, so they seem to think that if they keep their news schedules secret, then no one can 'speculate'...lol.

Anyway... Kuroda will have his press conference at 0630GMT
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,274
  • Oct 3, 2013 10:34pm Oct 3, 2013 10:34pm
GJ is bouncing off EJ DP and EJ is bouncing off GJ BRN 157.00

CNY bank holiday reason for sideways market ?

J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #18,275
  • Oct 3, 2013 10:42pm Oct 3, 2013 10:42pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Because Japanese officials hate 'speculators'....they blame 'speculators' for just about everything, so they seem to think that if they keep their news schedules secret, then no one can 'speculate'...lol. Anyway... Kuroda will have his press conference at 0630GMT
Thank you RJ.
You control how you trade; the market controls how and when you'll get paid
  • #18,276
  • Oct 4, 2013 12:32am Oct 4, 2013 12:32am
Quoting wiz3003
{quote} Thank you RJ.
I remember when UJ was down at about the 78 level and Noda and his side-kick Azumi were just about having kittens because they blamed everything on 'speculators'.....it made me laugh because if they think that, then why did they keep throwing billions of USA$ at intervention to lower the Yen, when all it did was give 'speculators' a better price in UJ from which to short the pair....lol.....now THAT'S what you call 'muppets'....lol!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,277
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:21am Oct 4, 2013 1:21am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Good post Here's how not to do it
I am amazed how people want to make money trading, without understanding some basic "game theory" principles.
Many people use martingale or similar schemes in their trading or in rulette etc.
What they do not understand is that in order to make money you need a positive EV strategy (EV=expected value).
Casinos are happy to see as many people as possible playing rulette with a "system" or not. Because the game is designed to have a positive EV for the house thus negative for the customer. No reason to analyze it here more.
All casino games are designed to have a positive EV for the house (apart from blackjack but thats another story).
The more you play the better for them.

What each trader is trying to do consiously or unconsiously is to set up a positive EV system. (Not the guy in RJ's comment though). He who manages this, can live from trading. Not only that but HE CAN CALCULATE WITH GREAT ACCURACY how much he can take out of the market.
Lets see an example:
Suppose we have a system which can produce say 70% winning trades (note: we all here know that genesis can do better than that, but I will stick to 70% for this example).
Each losing trade will be between -10 to -20 (the average stop loss of the system per trade) depending on the particular setup. Say -15 on average.
Each winning trade should be between +15 (if TP is less than 15 why enter...) to +??? ( many times could be 50 plus pips) say +20 on average.
So lets calculate the EV of such a system:
Per 100 trades we win 70X20=1400 and we lose 30X(-15)=-450.
We win 1050 pips overall or 10.5 pips per trade.
The EV of our system is thus 10.5
The trader with such a system KNOWS that on average, every time he pulls the trigger FOLLOWING HIS SYSTEM RULES makes 10plus pips. Every single time...
Enter Signature
  • #18,278
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:27am Oct 4, 2013 1:27am
Quoting thomasK
{quote} I am amazed how people want to make money trading, without understanding some basic "game theory" principles. Many people use martingale or similar schemes in their trading or in rulette etc. What they do not understand is that in order to make money you need a positive EV strategy (EV=expected value). Casinos are happy to see as many people as possible playing rulette with a "system" or not. Because the game is designed to have a positive EV for the house thus negative for the customer. No reason to analyze it here more. All casino...
That's an interesting way to put it, but you're right...that's how it works.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,279
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:30am Oct 4, 2013 1:30am
BOJ press conference should be in a minute, according to forexlive.com
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,280
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:44am Oct 4, 2013 1:44am
Morning/evening everyone,

RJ, could you take a look at the trade I just closed (+24) and let me know what you think. I'm not sure if it was a good choice. Thank you in advance.
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