We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return:
0.7%
- #66,907
- Oct 1, 2013 8:42pm Oct 1, 2013 8:42pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
we are in a downtrend after AUDUSD broke below the Upwards trendline as shown
the shot up yesterday is only a correction as you can see by its limited upwards move held down by the 61.8% fibo retrace from the downmove we enjoyed from 0.95
50% is now showing as a resistance point now....
making the chart as simple to understand as possible.
The Post Non-Taper bulls are really in a bad position now... because the market is not much bullish on the AUDUSD after topping out at 0.95 with limited correction that doesnt see an extension on the AUDUSD.
the shot up yesterday is only a correction as you can see by its limited upwards move held down by the 61.8% fibo retrace from the downmove we enjoyed from 0.95
50% is now showing as a resistance point now....
making the chart as simple to understand as possible.
The Post Non-Taper bulls are really in a bad position now... because the market is not much bullish on the AUDUSD after topping out at 0.95 with limited correction that doesnt see an extension on the AUDUSD.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return:
0.7%
- #66,908
- Edited 9:01pm Oct 1, 2013 8:47pm | Edited 9:01pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
The data not that bad..
Balance of Payments/Trade Balance shows an economy's growth strength.. why??
let me explain
because of the formula for GDP...
GDP growth = C+I+G+(X-M)
C= Domestic Consumption (we're already seeing a reduction in domestic consumption as we see private sector credit drop by 0.1% meaning banks have lend less money out, meaning less money in the economy for spending.)
I = Investment (business as big as BHP biliton are reducing their investments, so that puts more pressure)
G = Government expenditure
X = Export
M = Import...
The Trade balance module is the (X-M) and that figure is having 2 consecutive negative number.... a Negative (X-M) only puts pressure or potentially reduces the growth rate of the economy...
so this is a VERY bad news given the fact Australia's an Export Driven Economy... meaning China is not Importing as much now... and we can see it as Australia's Export is reduced...
I have been warning people here as to why China is not importing as much as they used.. to.. China is currently in a cycle where Chinese Banks have to Recapitalize their banks... meaning they actually have to raise money from its own economy so theres less money available to purchase anything abroad... they'd rather use that cash to recapitalize their banks given the fact that China is increasing regulation on its banks. and Shadow banks in china are being clamped down....
Also the fact that China has been putting more and more effort to become a Domestic Growth economy rather than export oriented growth economy they used to be years ago.... theres reason for this... for them to become the reserve currency of the world (which we know they will be) they need to be independently self sufficient in their own economic growth... so expect more reductions of China's Export/Importing activities and more emphasis in China's Domestic Growth in the next 5-10 years, meaning Expect China's Undervalued Equity markets to outperform.
im already hinting for the equity traders where best to put their money soon....The Golden age of Australia (which happens to be when the western countries suffers, and investors scramble to find safe havens during the 2008 crisis) is over.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return:
0.7%
- #66,912
- Oct 1, 2013 9:00pm Oct 1, 2013 9:00pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Chart can tell you everything! | 1,721 Posts | Online Now
- #66,913
- Oct 1, 2013 9:01pm Oct 1, 2013 9:01pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Chart can tell you everything! | 1,721 Posts | Online Now
{quote} the Data is VERY BAD.... its the 2nd consecutive Trade balance data that we see a Balance of Payment Deficit... THis suggests Australian Economy is beginning to suffer 2 consecutive reports of Negative Net Exports.... Balance of Payments/Trade Balance shows an economy's growth strength.. why?? let me explain because of the formula for GDP... GDP growth = C+I+G+(X-M) C= Domestic Consumption (we're already seeing a reduction in domestic consumption as we see private sector credit drop by 0.1% meaning banks have lend less money out, meaning...
- #66,914
- Oct 1, 2013 9:04pm Oct 1, 2013 9:04pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
- #66,916
- Oct 1, 2013 9:07pm Oct 1, 2013 9:07pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
{quote} Thank fxtyrant very much. I have gain more new knowledge
Australia's an export driven economy so bad trade balance can hurt them bad
Japan used to be an export driven economy but their exporting industry kinda died down 30 years ago... thats why the YEN appreciated with BOJ sitting on their hands prior to 2013, now they are trying to reboost their economy, weakening the Yen for a good reason... to Export again.... Bad trade data will only push the YEN down even further as it means the YEN needs to be lowered for their exports to be attractive in global economy
Switzerland however is and will never be an export driven economy... (unless you think their economy is based on manufacturing chocolates and swiss watches, to promote economic growth which i doubt it), thats why you can see as Switzerland's economy not being export driven, they can actually let hte CHF be as strong as they want., and CHF has stayed strong over the years....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return:
0.7%
- #66,917
- Oct 1, 2013 9:10pm Oct 1, 2013 9:10pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return:
0.7%
