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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #70,181
  • Sep 29, 2013 6:03pm Sep 29, 2013 6:03pm
Quoting venzen
Goodmorning All from a pre-dawn Siam ! Thought for the week: Hold on to your winners. Good Luck {image}
Hopefully that is a red g-string and not a bad infection
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,182
  • Sep 29, 2013 6:06pm Sep 29, 2013 6:06pm
An interesting article from John Mauldin.

China's Renminbi Is Well On Its Way To Becoming A Global Reserve Currency

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/renmi...#ixzz2gKGTEh2m
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,183
  • Sep 30, 2013 2:11am Sep 30, 2013 2:11am
Closed my short from 1.3515 for +30.
Set short from 1.3551 at BE.
Zero risk now.
Wait and see

EURUSDCALL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,184
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:07am Sep 30, 2013 4:07am
Eurozone prints lowest cpi since March 2010. Italy didn't show well either.
I say we get a new LTRO or at least an announcement or hint that it's coming.
ECB meeting on Wednesday.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,185
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:29am Sep 30, 2013 5:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
Eurozone prints lowest cpi since March 2010. Italy didn't show well either. I say we get a new LTRO or at least an announcement or hint that it's coming. ECB meeting on Wednesday. {image} {image}
rate cut 25bps possible.....if not ltro also posible to contain defaltion..
Bismillah
  • #70,186
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:33am Sep 30, 2013 5:33am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} rate cut 25bps possible.....if not ltro also posible to contain defaltion..
Yes either or both are possible. The race to zero is about to ramp up. The ECB, BOE, BOJ, RBA and RBNZ have all held back from further rate cuts or other easing policies because they thought the Fed was going to taper... and now that it looks like we won't get a taper until early 2014, there is even more reason for the others to ramp up their monetary stimulus efforts.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,187
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:41am Sep 30, 2013 5:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes either or both are possible. The race to zero is about to ramp up. The ECB, BOE, BOJ, RBA and RBNZ have all held back from further rate cuts or other easing policies because they thought the Fed was going to taper... and now that it looks like we won't get a taper until early 2014, there is even more reason for the others to ramp up their monetary stimulus efforts.
from all CB BOJ will be hardest hit by FED impact because yen very attractive during risk aversion.....very hard to them to weaken the yen with world economy deteriorate..
Bismillah
  • #70,188
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:47am Sep 30, 2013 6:47am
Hey guyzzz...
It's interesting what's going on now in US...
I heard rumors that Friday Payroll may not be published, as whole US government might be "closed due to insolvency".
Anybody knows something about it?
In the meantime this is what ALPARI news has to say:

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  • #70,189
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:52am Sep 30, 2013 6:52am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} from all CB BOJ will be hardest hit by FED impact because yen very attractive during risk aversion.....very hard to them to weaken the yen with world economy deteriorate..
Yes it will be very hard, but Abe and Kuroda are determined. Now that they have come this far, they will be stupid to turn back and give up. Not only will it be the end of Abe's political career, but also the end of the Japanese economy and a failure of the BOJ... which means Kuroda will also be out of a job forever.

One thing you must not underestimate about the traditional Japanese people is their high sense of honour. Failure is not an option... only self-inflicted death will come from failure, and nobody really wants to take his own life.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,190
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:50am Sep 30, 2013 7:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
Closed my short from 1.3515 for +30. Set short from 1.3551 at BE. Zero risk now. Wait and see EURUSDCALL
Closed my 1.3551 short for +10
Going out for lunch now.

EURUSDCALL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,191
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:45am Sep 30, 2013 8:45am
EJ

time to take those shorts off??... (maybe)

Daily
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,192
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:46am Sep 30, 2013 8:46am
Quoting halkins
Hey guyzzz... It's interesting what's going on now in US... I heard rumors that Friday Payroll may not be published, as whole US government might be "closed due to insolvency". Anybody knows something about it? In the meantime this is what ALPARI news has to say: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-awu_ahFbM

yea

its all nonsense to scare the retail herd out of their short USD positions...

the implications of a USGOV insolvency would have every government on earth shitting in their pants... aint gonna happen!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,193
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:05am Sep 30, 2013 9:05am
Quoting halkins
Hey guyzzz... It's interesting what's going on now in US... I heard rumors that Friday Payroll may not be published, as whole US government might be "closed due to insolvency". Anybody knows something about it? In the meantime this is what ALPARI news has to say: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-awu_ahFbM
If there is government shutdown, there will not be NFP release.

The U.S. Labor Department said on Friday that it would not issue the non-farm payrolls report this week if the government is shutdown.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101071730



But insolvency (debt ceiling) is not until Nov 1 I believe as government can play games until then.

In his letter to Congress on September 25, Secretary Lew forecasted the extraordinary measures to “be exhausted no later than October 17.” The Treasury will have only approximately $30 billion in cash balance. Therefore, the hard deadline for the debt limit increase could be in late October to early November. Treasury needs to make some large payments on November 1 (e.g., Social Security, Medicare, Military and veteran pays, etc.). So November 1 is a critical date

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ent-shut-downs
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #70,194
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:16am Sep 30, 2013 9:16am
Quoting theDHT
EJ time to take those shorts off??... (maybe) Daily {image}

I had a small EJ short auto-self-destruct via TP on the market open spike down. Edging into UJ shorts now, but PA seems reluctant to take the obvious directions across all instruments. I guess Loonie or Swiss Franc would make sense. Already long gold but thinking twice about this one...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,195
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:21am Sep 30, 2013 9:21am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} If there is government shutdown, there will not be NFP release. The U.S. Labor Department said on Friday that it would not issue the non-farm payrolls report this week if the government is shutdown. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101071730 But insolvency (debt ceiling) is not until Nov 1 I believe as government can play games until then. In his letter to Congress on September 25, Secretary Lew forecasted the extraordinary measures to “be exhausted no later than October 17.” The Treasury will have only approximately $30 billion in cash...

hi Scott.

What a mess, eh?

What's your action plan? I'm a bit over-energized with nerves - not sure what positions to take, so did the obvious: short USD, long JPY and long Gold (although Gold is acting strange - I think it wants to continue it's downtrend...)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,196
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:22am Sep 30, 2013 9:22am
Quoting venzen
{quote} I had a small EJ short auto-self-destruct via TP on the market open spike down. Edging into UJ shorts now, but PA seems reluctant to take the obvious directions across all instruments. I guess Loonie or Swiss Franc would make sense. Already long gold but thinking twice about this one...
Im short loonie and swissy for the last couple of hundred pips... Left em in the market when i went away.... Glad that i did

I think the theme here is usd weakness and asian/em growth (ozzie kiwi zar sgd etc).. From a swing perspective anyway

I started that swing thread i mentioned a few weeks ago... Ill post my macro and thematic ideas there, with tactical stuff here and in the club

Im also still long cable for the last 300 pips, waiting for the usgov nonsense to sort out before adding to that one... on an intra basis, it took out the high of last week, but Im not convinced, and want to see a better close... else i will add on a shallow retrace...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,197
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:42am Sep 30, 2013 9:42am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Im short loonie and swissy for the last couple of hundred pips... Left em in the market when i went away.... Glad that i did I think the theme here is usd weakness and asian/em growth (ozzie kiwi zar sgd etc).. From a swing perspective anyway I started that swing thread i mentioned a few weeks ago... Ill post my macro and thematic ideas there, with tactical stuff here and in the club Im also still long cable for the last 300 pips, waiting for the usgov nonsense to sort out before adding to that one... on an intra basis, it took out the high...

Well those open positions are fortuitous!

Will check out your thread - please post the link. I'm all over the charts trying to figure out what to do - everything is moving counter intuitive right now and i think i may have been premature with my entries - either that or they're going to call the shutdown off - coz the charts don't show what i'm expecting. Anyway... let's give it some time.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,198
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:56am Sep 30, 2013 9:56am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Well those open positions are fortuitous! Will check out your thread - please post the link. I'm all over the charts trying to figure out what to do - everything is moving counter intuitive right now and i think i may have been premature with my entries - either that or they're going to call the shutdown off - coz the charts don't show what i'm expecting. Anyway... let's give it some time.
Tbh thats exactly why i took the time off... On a short term basis i hit a streak of 15 consecutive losers... Which was very tough! I needed to reset so i left... Not staring at screens for a few days can work wonders for a traders mindset and allows us to use our greatest weapon: time/patience....

Ill post the link to my thread here if Mr PT is cool with it... Its his party after all!

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,199
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:07am Sep 30, 2013 10:07am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Well those open positions are fortuitous! Will check out your thread - please post the link. I'm all over the charts trying to figure out what to do - everything is moving counter intuitive right now and i think i may have been premature with my entries - either that or they're going to call the shutdown off - coz the charts don't show what i'm expecting. Anyway... let's give it some time.

PM'd it to you!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #70,200
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:30am Sep 30, 2013 10:30am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} If there is government shutdown, there will not be NFP release. (...)
Quoting theDHT
{quote} yea its all nonsense to scare the retail herd out of their short USD positions (...)
Thanx Guys...
Anybody knows what does it literally mean "government shutdown" ???
Are they going to stick a label "We'll be back tomorrow" or what ?
Guys, we're talking about United States, the economic giant (or now the world's biggest money printing factory)!!!
All these disturbances will make markets go crazy and unpredictable. Forget about technical analysis...
Maybe it's good idea to hedge our FX accounts for a week or two ?
It does not look good to me :
http://www.policymic.com/articles/65...eiling-is-next
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