Sonic R. System

1/ The high of the last week bar is not higher than the previous week high. Weakness.
**Could just be consolidation after a strong week.

2/ The open price of the last week is equal to the close price of the previous week bar (even if there was a gap on the last monday). Weakness.
**Not sure why this is weakness.

3/ Spread of the last week bar is the very small. The last bar is the inside bar. Weakness.
**Inside bars closing near the top after a strong bullish bar are usually consolidation before moving higher (trend continuation). Look at the chart for previous examples. Also, the tail is on the bottom so buyers stepped in at lower prices.

4/ On the daily chart we can see that the friday bar is closed in the middle area, presenting the test of the 3550 price level. Weakness.
**Daily looks like a bull flag after a strong day last week. Fridays often see profit-taking after a strong week.

5/ The volume of the last week is less than the volumes of the previous two weeks. Weakness.
**Volume was higher at lower prices as "smart money" buys at lower prices so they slowed the buying (less volume) now that prices are higher.

Based on these estimations I might suggest that the upcoming week will be bearish. There is supposed to be a retrace to the 3310-3340 price area as a minimum.

Who knows?
**Not me :-)
One more comment, the monthly chart will close Monday & will be a bullish engulfing & close near the top.
I'm not making a forcast here, just showing that bullish & bearish comments can be made looking at the same charts. That's why PA trading can be difficult.

Where is End of Up Trend (Continued)?

Ok, let's now consider EU and let's keep this one simple also.

First off, we cannot know how the MMs will next move price, nor how far. We ought not to be predicting. What we can see, using large TF charts and moving down thru them is the following:

1. The Day chart shows the price cycling up since early July 2013, and there isn't much to be gleaned from price action aside from perhaps anticipating that the gap up a couple weeks ago will eventually be filled, and that the last bar for Friday, a bull bar closed about half way down, is typical of a bar showing the market pushing up price and then selling off into the upwards momentum. The volume also has two clues to contribute: 1) since the market began the up cycling the volume has been declining, and 2) the highest volume most recently has been for the bar that struck the highest price. The declining volume overall suggests that fewer and fewer are interested as the price rises. That the highest recent volume was at the highest prices is clearly indicative of the market selling (buy low, sell high) suggesting the MMs have been closing longs and opening shorts. This suggests weakness.

2. The H4 chart also shows two clues, again thru volume. Firstly, right after the price pump, the volumes that had been declining overall suddenly moved up a bit before resuming declining. This is indicative of selling at the highs (buy low, sell high), and there was this boost in selling once the new highs were attained. Secondly, last Friday the market spent pushing the price back up, and the higher it went the more activity there was. This is obviously selling motivated activity since nobody in their right mind, and that has the power to move prices, is going to first move the price up and then start heavy buying! With this being the second time up to the very highs, it is reasonable to think the first time up the high volume was the MMs focused on selling to close longs and this time up the high volume was the MMs focused on selling to open shorts. This suggest weakness.

3. Saving the best for last, is H1, which clearly shows Friday the market pulled off the classic Pump & Dump,.....with the lead in, build up, the strong pumps while dumping, and then the balance of the day continuing to sell which started the price back down. This proves the market is a bear. In fact, looking at this H1 chart, now that we see "....the rest of the story..." it is no stretch of the imagination to realize that the price pump on the 18th was orchestrated by the market makers to get price up where the big banks had already placed their "close longs" and their "open shorts" sell orders. Where did the initial drive up on the 18th land the price? Above a whole number. Since then, where has the price spent most of its time and where has most of the volume been? Above the whole number. And where did the MMs take the price to finish off the week? Above the whole number. And what is the premise of PVSRA? Bear MMs prefer to sell (close longs/open shorts) above whole numbers!


From experience we know that just because the market might be a bear does not mean we can know when they will stop pushing up the price. However, with a number of days of price in a 100ish pips range, moving up and down which is what the MMs do with price when they shed one side of a position and take on the other (Wyckoff Distribution Phase), there is adequate reason to suspect the bear MMs are switching for a run down. The glaring fact that the Day chart volume at the highest prices was greater than the volume that pushed the price all the way up to those prices strongly suggests that the market is not only a bear, but a bear that is highly manipulating to get what it wants.

Weekend Food..




Sonic

Just post my view on EJ..




https://www.facebook.com/sonicrsystem


Sonic

Just add a normal Moving Average, set the Style / Colour to None and the levels to +/- 250, 500 and 750. I prefer to work with fixed levels rather than Bollinger Bands. Fixed levels are a simple way of showing when price is overextended and thus can be expected to pull back.....

AUDUSD, AUDJPY closed for 1900 pips gain

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

two new positions open: GBPUSD,EURUSD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURJPY GBPJPY USDCAD USDCHF still running

Sonic,

If it is not posted here, then I don't see it. If you want it on your facebook, fine, but this Sonic R. System thread is your first and should be your primary project. Anything of importance should be posted here, facebook or no facebook.

My thoughts on EJ are as follows. Price action, volume, and support/resistance are the three important technical indicators. It is not always easy to ferret out the truth from "volume", however. That takes experience and patience. On the attached EJ H1 chart there are a couple of very clear reads, though, where PA highs, with volume peaking at those highs, and where those highs are related to S/R in such a way that PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears.

Firstly, we see PA up thru a half number SR on high volume. So PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears. Secondly, we again see PA up thru a half number SR on high volume (and also with lots of volume with PA being above the lower whole number SR before finally dropping). So here also PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears.

Going beyond understanding if the MMs are bulls or bears, to trying to predict which way price might be moved next, and how far it might be moved next, is a waste of time because cannot know these things. Often, when we think we can know, even the MMs themselves have not yet made up their minds.

It is enough to get an indication if the MMs are bulls or bears, and then look for a decent setup and trade in that direction. As we well know, bear MMs can move price both up (to gather in more shorts as longs enter the market) and down (to start killing longs into capitulating and selling, which will quickly start building profits for the bear MM's shorts as all the selling by longs drives the price even lower). So, from here the price could go up or down. The Sonic R. System finds setups and trades in both directions regardless of trend, but it is safest to trade with the trend and with the MMs. It looks like the trend might start down, and the MMs are bears, making it logical to be stalking for a short setup and trade. However, the MMs might start price back up again and keep it in a range for awhile. We can never know.

At this point, I think the best we can do is to start looking for the first clear PVSRA signs in the early part of this new coming week. The USA will be in turmoil over politics and the budget. Even the market might be in "standby" mode, waiting to see what happens. And remember that next Friday will be NFP Friday. A lot will be going on and the best we can do is use PVSRA to see what the MMs are doing. Whatever the MMs do, they might do it all week long, possibly just ranging prices up and down, continuing to build their positions and doing nothing else. The Classic short setup on H4 looks enticing, but with all that will be going on this new week, the outcome could be much different. Vigilance to what the MMs are and what they are doing, and patience for any "right" opportunity are what is called for.

-tah

Facebook ...I LIKE.
just replied you.

emmanuel7788,

I'm new on this forum... I see you replied to a lot of threads and you look to me to have a lot of knowledge... Since I'm junior I cannot write to you in private message... I would like to read your bio if you would accept to be my ''buddy'' on FF.

Regards,


Alex

Hello at all.

I have updated all crosses.

http://500euroalgiorno.wordpress.com/

just did homework with colouring , hope green and red not late too far .

guessing gap up for CAD

Well done

many thanks loeil!

my trading plan for AUDJPY

Here are some real open gaps in pre trading for the top banks. This was an interesting weekend. The national bank of Panama announced a 5 day banking holiday, Italy's government falls apart, and US debt ceiling debate front and center. So Sonicers be prepared for large moves in this week and the week ahead. I am currently flat on all trades will be looking to enter on good setups.

Thanks for that headsup. How are you managing to get these ticks? My mt4 data comes doesnt come through until 10PM GMT sun. What is your platform/provider out of interest... Cheers

I have broker accounts with brokers that are market makers so they pre trade to set their position for when the other brokers come online. Most brokers do not post this pre market data. What you see are often fake gaps and misleading opening prices. I am sure there are many advantages for the too big to fail institutions. The top two FX brokers in the world who represent more than 25% of the world markets share are Deutsche bank and Citigroup. Citigroup has FDIC insurance for their FX accounts up to I believe $400,000 per account. They are the only US firm I am aware of that offers FDIC insurance for FX accounts.

six hour later ... okay lets dance

nzd red , for short

aussie red too + classic wave

One Universal Rule apply in everywhere, and FX trading is not spared as well.. "Cause and Effect"..



Trading is decoding and understand the cause and predict the possible effect....


Sonic

Cause & Effect.....Liquidity & "Gimmie Liquidity!"

The "Cause" is to create liquidity. The "Effect" will vary, depending on a number of variables. For example, consider how EJ has been up and down, but really going nowhere with any "commitment". If the shorts needed to renew the vigor of the longs so there would be liquidity for shorting, what better way to do that then gap the price down! Longs love to enter low, and they love to enter when they can ride the gap closing PA back upwards. And what will the shorting MMs be doing while they help the price go upwards. They will be taking the short side of all the trades the longs make! This is a move designed to unstagnate a market that is likely to otherwise be sitting on its hands due to so many things up in the air this week.

I am waiting for price to perhaps get back above the half number. If it does, I might add to my EJ short.