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  • #837,481
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:28pm Sep 23, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} No he does not. Total number of trades = 72 Total number of losses = 56 Total number of wins = 16 The problem is we only know the risk on 30% of the trades (2.3%). We need to know the risk for the remaining 70% in order to calculate a best case scenario of money won.
Upon further review, the math on blocks of trades also doesn't add up correctly (as stated by ffleo). This was a horribly constructed puzzle Chicky.
  • #837,482
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:30pm Sep 23, 2013 11:30pm
Quoting Chicky
How much money one can make in six years, based on the following assumptions: Number of trades in a month - 12 Number of losers in a block of 18 trades - 14 Number of winners in a block of 28 trades - 6 Risk on 30% of the total trades taken: 2.3% per trade Reward on 20% of the total trades taken: 4.6% per trade Reward on rest 50% of the total number of trades taken: 0.70%
ok.

12 trades per month for 6 years, that is 864 total trades.
30% losers out of 864 = 259.2 --> 259 trades. at 2.3% loss.
20% winners out of 864 = 172.8 --> 173 trades, at 4.6% gain.
the rest 864 - 259 - 173 = 432 trades, at 0.7% gain.

=====> 0.997^259 x 1.046^173 x 1.007^432 = 0.4592x2393x20.36 = 22370

edit.
the first part in the formula is wrong it should be 0.977^259 = 0.00241.
so the answer should be 0.00241x 2393x20.36 = 117.6
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,483
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:34pm Sep 23, 2013 11:34pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} You could not maintain the 1% per day through the first 80 days then. 1% every day for 80 straight days is 121.7% return.
Not only this, we could not follow many of our own rules. Many times we risked as much as 30% of our account on a single trade to achieve 1% daily target after getting a series of losses. Then we went for a big hit. Soon after we achieved 90%, I bought his share for 45 cents or so, literally paying him two quarters, just to avoid any conflict if later this account of 90 cents grows larger. Over the period this account went to $34 and then I added $200 more. In first month of this capital induction, account grew to $850, again taking wild risks and rewards. Currently this account stands at $1.10. Believe it or not, this account omstill gives me the same thrill and stress as others. Sometimes I wonder, if people trade not for money but for thrill without knowing this.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #837,484
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:37pm Sep 23, 2013 11:37pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Upon further review, the math on blocks of trades also doesn't add up correctly (as stated by ffleo). This was a horribly constructed puzzle Chicky.
LOL. I know one should alway look forward just to avoid looking at the mess created behind, but this post is worth looking at:

Quoting Chicky
{quote} No, this is not a trick question. Just a reminder to those who make this kind of calculation that it is vitally important to follow the risk/reward, lot size, etc. percentages and trade set-ups no matter what. How it is related to my above post? ....... You cannot calculate or earn return, not even close, if you do not consistently follow the figures. Consider the missing/duplicate figures in my above question as the data relating to trades where one deviates from pre-set figures. In other words, calculation is one thing, consistent practical...
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #837,485
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:39pm Sep 23, 2013 11:39pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} ok. 12 trades per month for 6 years, that is 864 total trades. 30% losers out of 864 = 259.2 --> 259 trades. at 2.3% loss. 20% winners out of 864 = 172.8 --> 173 trades, at 4.6% gain. the rest 864 - 259 - 173 = 432 trades, at 0.7% gain. =====> 0.997^259 x 1.046^173 x 1.007^432 = 0.4592x2393x20.36 = 22370 edit. the first part in the formula is wrong it should be 0.977^259 = 0.00241. so the answer should be 0.00241x 2393x20.36 = 117.6
Wow I totally fked up the math on this one. I didn't even calculate the total number of trades correctly. However, I still don't understand how anyone could calculate how much money was won if we don't know the risk on 70% of the trades.
  • #837,486
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:41pm Sep 23, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Not only this, we could not follow many of our own rules. Many times we risked as much as 30% of our account on a single trade to achieve 1% daily target after getting a series of losses. Then we went for a big hit. Soon after we achieved 90%, I bought his share for 45 cents or so, literally paying him two quarters, just to avoid any conflict if later this account of 90 cents grows larger. Over the period this account went to $34 and then I added $200 more. In first month of this capital induction, account grew to $850, again taking wild...
i think it is even difficult to maintain a 2:3 winner/loser ratio if you want a 2:1 gain/loss ratio
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,487
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:42pm Sep 23, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Not only this, we could not follow many of our own rules. Many times we risked as much as 30% of our account on a single trade to achieve 1% daily target after getting a series of losses. Then we went for a big hit. Soon after we achieved 90%, I bought his share for 45 cents or so, literally paying him two quarters, just to avoid any conflict if later this account of 90 cents grows larger. Over the period this account went to $34 and then I added $200 more. In first month of this capital induction, account grew to $850, again taking wild...
I'm sure there are many traders who trade simply for the thrill. Some folks call them degenerate gamblers. I would agree but only if they don't hit the jackpot. Then everyone calls them geniuses!

It's a thin line between being revered or being a loser - by society's standards.
  • #837,488
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:42pm Sep 23, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Wow I totally fked up the math on this one. I didn't even calculate the total number of trades correctly. However, I still don't understand how anyone could calculate how much money was won if we don't know the risk on 70% of the trades.
he said 30% are losers at 2.3%
20% are winners at 4.6%
50% are winners at 0.7%
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,489
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:45pm Sep 23, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} he said 30% are losers at 2.3% 20% are winners at 4.6% 50% are winners at 0.7%
I believe he said 30% are the amount of trades with a risk of 2.3%. Not 30% are losers. So, winning trades could be included in the 30%.
  • #837,490
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:46pm Sep 23, 2013 11:46pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Upon further review, the math on blocks of trades also doesn't add up correctly (as stated by ffleo). This was a horribly constructed puzzle Chicky.
i like your questions last night. do you have any more?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,491
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:47pm Sep 23, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} I believe he said 30% are the amount of trades with a risk of 2.3%. Not 30% are losers. So, 30% could include winning trades.
yup. Chicky you need to carefully think about your questions before you raise them up. We are all confused
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,492
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:47pm Sep 23, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} he said 30% are losers at 2.3% 20% are winners at 4.6% 50% are winners at 0.7%
Stop calculating!

This missing / duplicate figures are trades expected to be entered outside the pre-set criteria and risk/reward calculation and therefore I don't know these figures.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #837,493
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:50pm Sep 23, 2013 11:50pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Stop calculating! This missing / duplicate figures are trades expected to be entered outside the pre-set criteria and risk/reward calculation and therefore I don't know these figures.
In other words you don't know the answer nor if an answer is even possible given the criteria. Nice.
  • #837,494
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:50pm Sep 23, 2013 11:50pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Stop calculating! This missing / duplicate figures are trades expected to be entered outside the pre-set criteria and risk/reward calculation and therefore I don't know these figures.
chicky finally confessed.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,495
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:52pm Sep 23, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} chicky finally confessed.
LOL. I confessed two pages earlier, twice. But you people are not reading my posts.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #837,496
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:00am Sep 24, 2013 12:00am
Back to business

I see bulls working at 1.3488.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #837,497
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:09am Sep 24, 2013 12:09am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Chicky, speaking of high risk/reward chances (as you mentioned with your 1% per day attempt), I have thought about doing a side account with little money and "go for broke", as they say. The margin call would be something similar to a regular account getting stopped out at say 1%. The thing I like most about this concept is you don't have all your money sitting in the account exposed (broker going out of business, slippage for negative balance, etc). You simply replenish every time you get margin called. If you believe you can hit on one trade...
It is best to set a limit for every broker depending what they do to the account. The issue with larger accounts is that you cannot enter or exit where you exactly want to. Sometimes those fuckin' brokers do not allow you to enter a trade even during normal volatility. First one month is always good with almost all the brokers. Problem starts later. No ea of any sort.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #837,498
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:14am Sep 24, 2013 12:14am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} It is best to set a limit for every broker depending what they do to the account. The issue with larger accounts is that you cannot enter or exit where you exactly want to. Sometimes those fuckin' brokers do not allow you to enter a trade even during normal volatility. First one month is always good with almost all the brokers. Problem starts later. No ea of any sort.
yeah, brokers sometimes freeze your platform.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,499
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:19am Sep 24, 2013 12:19am
Quoting hadox
{quote} euro still the same level, 1.352x/3x zone might give a clue, and the rr is good.. cable same levels, 1.603x zone also might give a clue, and again the rr is also good.. dax getting rejected at 869x atm, 860x/856x seems possible , who knows, could be a trap, but the rr is also good.. lets see what happens gl trading
Quoting hadox
{quote} euro got rejected at the top of the zone at 1.353x - so nothing to do atm, unless someone sold the zone top ofc.. cable made an intraday close above the zone (1h close), and did re-test the level again, still needs the daily to "confirm" though, but sometimes the 1h can give an early entry in case we don't re-test the after a daily close above the zone.. dax still rejected at 869x, but pretty slow day so far.. anyway lets see what happens later, enjoy the rest of the day..



euro same levels in play for me, nothing new..


cable 1.601x/3x zone acting as a support, same plan as yd but pretty messy PA atm, oh well..


dax did test 860x don't know if we're going to test 856x was kind of an overshoot level, I got some resistance at 866x atm, but sidelined atm..




anyway gl trading today


Inserted Video
Patience is a virtue...
  • #837,500
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:26am Sep 24, 2013 12:26am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} yeah, brokers sometimes freeze your platform.
I don't trade during these times after getting my 30 pip wide sl hit, not for price movement but spread widened beyond imagination, twice in few minutes, because I was not sure what happened to my first trade. They later issued a bullshit clarification. I am talking about sending you "market conditions" message every time you want to enter in regular NY hours even with no news release etc. One of the brokers used to routinely slip 9 out of every 10 times, not in a day but in a week. I later used them to test the market by offering a small quote in opposite direction, when they accepted that in fraction of a second, simply entered the right trade with some other broker. It seldom failed.
The Thief of Wall Street
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