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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #70,061
  • Sep 22, 2013 12:24pm Sep 22, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} Thanks PT - that looks to be much more useful than the MA cross over indy that I have used before.....full test this week
Cheers Cap'n
arrrggghhh!!!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,062
  • Sep 22, 2013 1:16pm Sep 22, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Germany's ruling coalition wins 42% of the vote, according to early exit polls The exit poll is no guarantee of the final result however. Germany's political class will still be on tenterhooks ahead of the official results, later on Sunday evening. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101053161
Merkel's coalition DOESN'T have a majority.
Looks like it's 4 to 8 weeks of negotiations before we know the makeup of the next Bundestag.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,063
  • Sep 22, 2013 3:04pm Sep 22, 2013 3:04pm
Had 20-25pip Gap up. Maybe this one will close (I do have a slight seller bias). Also, the W1 RSI (5) is showing 74 (Overbought to me) and in my back-testing (and yes, I know historic patterns do not dictate future price) this indicator always, eventually (maybe 1-8 weeks) turns around at this point and yields some profit, albeit not always much. Still, for my trading purposes, the technicals are stacking up for a short term profit

Edit: In the spirit of full disclosure, I do have some shorts all ready in and under water, so in addition to believing the E/U will fall at least in the short term, I also hope it does lol
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #70,064
  • Sep 22, 2013 3:45pm Sep 22, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
Had 20-25pip Gap up. Maybe this one will close (I do have a slight seller bias). Also, the W1 RSI (5) is showing 74 (Overbought to me) and in my back-testing (and yes, I know historic patterns do not dictate future price) this indicator always, eventually (maybe 1-8 weeks) turns around at this point and yields some profit, albeit not always much. Still, for my trading purposes, the technicals are stacking up for a short term profit Edit: In the spirit of full disclosure, I do have some shorts all ready in and under water, so in addition...
Atta boy PW

Whilst I strongly believe we are ultimately heading down down down, I also see a very strong probability of testing higher prices first. However, before that happens, the technicals are screaming for at least a slight correction.

Possible corrective targets to the downside are the broken long term down trend line around the 1.3475 area. If we manage to get a close below that, we might be able to classify the trend line breach as a fakey breaky and would therefore slightly reduce the currently high probability of new highs.

Further below the 1.3475 area, I will be eyeing the last broken high at 1.3450 area followed by 1.3310, by which time price should be bouncing off the bottom of the current H4/D1 rising channel/trend line from the last 1.2743 lows. This is the max correction I can envision at this time (1.3110/15 area).

If we are to see more highs, which at this point I highly suspect to be the case, then possible targets would include 1.3600 (Psych level), 1.3640 (start of daily supply zone) and 1.3710 (double top of the Feb 2013 high).

Here are many who are calling for a massive squeeze all the way up to 1.38, 1.40, 1.42 and even as high at 1.50 & 1.60. To those posters I say "If price gets that high, it will certainly not be for the reasons you are thinking now".

Anyway, that's my 2 cents which is all backed up by analysis I and many others have posted here and in "The Club". If you've been following the underlying macroeconomic analysis as well as the Elliott Wave, Gann and other great technical analysis by some of the best posters in these two threads, I am sure you will share my views on this.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,065
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:07pm Sep 22, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Atta boy PW Whilst I strongly believe we are ultimately heading down down down, I also see a very strong probability of testing higher prices first. However, before that happens, the technicals are screaming for at least a slight correction. Possible corrective targets to the downside are the broken long term down trend line around the 1.3475 area. If we manage to get a close below that, we might be able to classify the trend line breach as a fakey breaky and would therefore slightly reduce the currently high probability of new...
It's Pretty Scary When indicators are moving Down and PA is moving Long..................IMO
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,066
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:16pm Sep 22, 2013 6:16pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} It's Pretty Scary When indicators are moving Down and PA is moving Long..................IMO {image}
Yep. We need a wave 4 (down or sideways) and then a wave 5 (up) in order for EW guidelines to be satisfied.
I am seeing bullish hidden divergence on H4 and bullish divergence on H1 and M15. So IMO definitely more up. The only question is how much before we crash.

Tomorrow's data will lead the way
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,067
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:29pm Sep 22, 2013 6:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep. We need a wave 4 (down or sideways) and then a wave 5 (up) in order for EW guidelines to be satisfied. I am seeing bullish hidden divergence on H4 and bullish divergence on H1 and M15. So IMO definitely more up. The only question is how much before we crash. Tomorrow's data will lead the way {image}
Are you up in the Wee hours of the morning there? Perhaps 1:30 am your time ?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,068
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:33pm Sep 22, 2013 6:33pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep. We need a wave 4 (down or sideways) and then a wave 5 (up) in order for EW guidelines to be satisfied. I am seeing bullish hidden divergence on H4 and bullish divergence on H1 and M15. So IMO definitely more up. The only question is how much before we crash. Tomorrow's data will lead the way {image}
no doubt mkt wants to take out 1.3710 stops...not too many BS here but SS...for sure...nevertheless I've been selling rallies but had to take profits rather frequently bcs it never tanked really hard....still shrt some just in case it will FINALLY go south....it is easier to make money being on the "right" side...however I will sell into more rallies if warranted...then when that pos (Piece of Shit) finally collapses I can collect some on the way down...hopefully having an easier time....making
  • #70,069
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:49pm Sep 22, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Are you up in the Wee hours of the morning there? Perhaps 1:30 am your time ?
No. 3:48am actually LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,070
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:53pm Sep 22, 2013 6:53pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} no doubt mkt wants to take out 1.3710 stops...not too many BS here but SS...for sure...nevertheless I've been selling rallies but had to take profits rather frequently bcs it never tanked really hard....still shrt some just in case it will FINALLY go south....it is easier to make money being on the "right" side...however I will sell into more rallies if warranted...then when that pos (Piece of Shit) finally collapses I can collect some on the way down...hopefully having an easier time....making
Well I'm not sure about taking out 3710 stops, but hey... Never say never.
I am sure there are many more stops to be taken out before price reaches those levels... and as it goes higher, the retail crowd is becoming less net short. Now all we bears need is for the retail crowd to start piling into long positions on a nice pullback and flip their sentiment to net long... at which time I will gladly lever up on the shorts. Until then, the Eur/Usd pair is a dud to me. Instead I am starting to focus on what's happening with SP500, the aussie and the Kiwi.

Oh and I am also bullish U/CAD
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,071
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:11pm Sep 22, 2013 8:11pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well I'm not sure about taking out 3710 stops, but hey... Never say never. I am sure there are many more stops to be taken out before price reaches those levels... and as it goes higher, the retail crowd is becoming less net short. Now all we bears need is for the retail crowd to start piling into long positions on a nice pullback and flip their sentiment to net long... at which time I will gladly lever up on the shorts. Until then, the Eur/Usd pair is a dud to me. Instead I am starting to focus on what's happening with SP500, the aussie...

Morning all,

PT, you mention the AudUsd... i've not analyzed that pair for a while but looked at it over the weekend. Seems a similar setup to the E/U: wave5 up needed before some strong downside.

edit: my opinion about downside comes from blatant MACD, RSI and Stochastic divergence in weekly chart

Alien, what's your Transmogrifier say about EJ atm?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,072
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:23pm Sep 22, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Morning all, PT, you mention the AudUsd... i've not analyzed that pair for a while but looked at it over the weekend. Seems a similar setup to the E/U: wave5 up needed before some strong downside. edit: my opinion about downside comes from blatant MACD, RSI and Stochastic divergence in weekly chart Alien, what's your Transmogrifier say about EJ atm?
EJ -
M15 and H1 at a bottom now just starting to go long as you can see.

50 - 60 pips retrace to the long side from here, and then back down on the H4
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,073
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:24pm Sep 22, 2013 8:24pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Morning all, PT, you mention the AudUsd... i've not analyzed that pair for a while but looked at it over the weekend. Seems a similar setup to the E/U: wave5 up needed before some strong downside. edit: my opinion about downside comes from blatant MACD, RSI and Stochastic divergence in weekly chart Alien, what's your Transmogrifier say about EJ atm?
Version 1.5 or Version 7 ?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,074
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:53pm Sep 22, 2013 8:53pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Version 1.5 or Version 7 ?

eh... you got me there... is version 7 the 100% accuracy guaranteed iteration?

i know! give me both versions!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,075
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:55pm Sep 22, 2013 8:55pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} eh... you got me there... is version 7 the 100% accuracy guaranteed iteration? i know! give me both versions!
hi venzen, are you from Thailand?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #70,076
  • Edited 9:15pm Sep 22, 2013 9:01pm | Edited 9:15pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} EJ - M15 and H1 at a bottom now just starting to go long as you can see. 50 - 60 pips retrace to the long side from here, and then back down on the H4
Yes, I've got H4 RSI pointing down, but H1 is showing a massive reverse divergence implying more highs... EJ really is making us wait for the drop... maybe when i've retired from trading and RSI has been stuck at 100 for 20 years... I'll make my last trade ever: tears rolling down my face as I hit 'SELL 1 Contract Eur/Jpy?' with a reluctant shaky finger...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,077
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:02pm Sep 22, 2013 9:02pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} hi venzen, are you from Thailand?

hi ffleo, not from but IN
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,078
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:04pm Sep 22, 2013 9:04pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi ffleo, not from but IN
Nice to know that. Is it very hot over there?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #70,079
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:11pm Sep 22, 2013 9:11pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Nice to know that. Is it very hot over there?

hot day and night. at the moment it's rainy season (the other is "hot season") and it's the oddest feeling to sit on the porch in a relentless downpour - sweating all the while. I like it, but as I said to theDHT last week - the main problem with humid heat is that my screens start fogging up. Respect to IBM Thinkpad - my laptops keep working despite extreme conditions!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #70,080
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:21pm Sep 22, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hot day and night. at the moment it's rainy season (the other is "hot season") and it's the oddest feeling to sit on the porch in a relentless downpour - sweating all the while. I like it, but as I said to theDHT last week - the main problem with humid heat is that my screens start fogging up. Respect to IBM Thinkpad - my laptops keep working despite extreme conditions!
Yeah Thinkpad is my favorite. Now it is Lenovo. I still own a Lenovo T60P.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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