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EURUSD

  • #837,061
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:25pm Sep 20, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} {quote} Perhaps I am just looking for much needed insight I don't know and don't want to make it sounds like I know what's gonna happen

Perhaps it is necessary sometimes seek understanding.
  • #837,062
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:26pm Sep 20, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting attila
So you guys already made up your mind... OK...
and yet nobody's wondering why is it being bought in the last hour of trading going into the weekend... we'll see you later I guess..
  • #837,063
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:28pm Sep 20, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} insider info is not allowed to disclose.

I know, Ken is testing us
  • #837,064
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:29pm Sep 20, 2013 3:29pm
have a good weekend guys
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,065
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:30pm Sep 20, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting theXfiles
{quote} Perhaps it is necessary sometimes seek understanding.
Well, you just need to pay attentions to the posts. Could be many big guys who can move PA in disguised posting on this thread
  • #837,066
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:31pm Sep 20, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I mean price in of people expecting tapering. With tapering, people will expect the dollar to strengthen, thus buying dollar which will lead euro going down. but euro did not go down. People tried to price in but was countered by the moves of the Fed. The end effect of TRYING to price in was not successful. People tried but failed.
I think this is a bit naive, but it's impossible to prove that.
I don't believe the market works the way you think it does. It's manipulated. Yes, the m-word. I don't think you have bulls and bears who are matched up in the way you think they are. I think you have massive accounts and the biggest ones are able either separately or acting in concert to shift the balance where they want. The big mofo accounts will be distributing ahead of the next big leg down on EURUSD. They may be doing this already, or they may plan to take it to 1.37 maybe. But they sure as hell will know in advance of the top when they are going to start distributing. EURUSD won't turn because the bears are getting the upper hand; it'll turn because the people currently pushing it up have decided they've distributed enough and are ready to push it down.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #837,067
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:36pm Sep 20, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Well, you just need to pay attentions to the posts. Could be many big guys who can move PA in disguised posting on this thread

Can I buy from you some information, how many yards will it cost?
  • #837,068
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:40pm Sep 20, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think this is a bit naive, but it's impossible to prove that. I don't believe the market works the way you think it does. It's manipulated. Yes, the m-word. I don't think you have bulls and bears who are matched up in the way you think they are. I think you have massive accounts and the biggest ones are able either separately or acting in concert to shift the balance where they want. The big mofo accounts will be distributing ahead of the next big leg down on EURUSD. They may be doing this already, or they may plan to take it to 1.37 maybe....
yes, this is definition of distribution but one thing does not match here, commercial part of the market became seller and absorbed all those contracts usualy bullish confirmation, plus there is no heavyweight bearish info from europe,
gone, enjoy your week people.
swing it!
  • #837,069
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:42pm Sep 20, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting theXfiles
{quote} Can I buy from you some information, how many yards will it cost?
  • #837,070
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:53pm Sep 20, 2013 3:53pm
i dont know or care. so whatever way the election goes. i will be right. right on the sideline. i dont compete against the voters. i just compete against myself.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #837,071
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:54pm Sep 20, 2013 3:54pm
Angela Merkel is going to regain her chancellorship, but with more conservative support of SDP. Does it sound bells (Exit polls)
But in case CDU/CSU and FDP make it through, would mean liberal policies to continue with Germany continue lending support to ailing Eurozone economies.

Not sure but this can go into either direction- sit tight there would be plenty of trading opportunities. There are no overbought or oversold conditions, its only profit booking or indecisiveness that stalls a PA.

Have a great weekend!!!
Wherever Market Goes, I follow and return back after getting my 10 Pips.
  • #837,072
  • Sep 20, 2013 4:02pm Sep 20, 2013 4:02pm
closing under 3533 and engulfed the pryer day (not, missed a pip). i hope its fun next week..
have a good one
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #837,073
  • Sep 20, 2013 4:44pm Sep 20, 2013 4:44pm
as if it wasn't obvious, the taper speculation was entirely so the FED didn't have to continue purchasing bonds at stupidly low yields.

also so they could take profits on the capital appreciation of that massive long bond trade, at all time highs

now just rinse and repeat... but for how long?

what % of the treasury market can the FED own before the whole thing starts to collapse?


who will they sell to when yields are at 0.1%?

certainly not me
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #837,074
  • Sep 20, 2013 5:38pm Sep 20, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
as if it wasn't obvious, the taper speculation was entirely so the FED didn't have to continue purchasing bonds at stupidly low yields. also so they could take profits on the capital appreciation of that massive long bond trade, at all time highs now just rinse and repeat... but for how long? what % of the treasury market can the FED own before the whole thing starts to collapse? who will they sell to when yields are at 0.1%? certainly not me
Give me a source so I can understand more fundamentals and interest rates.
  • #837,075
  • Sep 20, 2013 5:39pm Sep 20, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting Piters
{quote} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU1pD4xPe2M
hahaha, where you find this video?
it made my day.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,076
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:18pm Sep 20, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Looking for a sale-off CHF/JPY either in 20 minutes or EOD
Would have preferred below the low of the day, as US didnt establish a LL, however they didnt establish a HH either. I'm still happy with the close, and short.

Love the Daily print on this as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #837,077
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:52pm Sep 20, 2013 6:52pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
as if it wasn't obvious, the taper speculation was entirely so the FED didn't have to continue purchasing bonds at stupidly low yields. also so they could take profits on the capital appreciation of that massive long bond trade, at all time highs now just rinse and repeat... but for how long? what % of the treasury market can the FED own before the whole thing starts to collapse? who will they sell to when yields are at 0.1%? certainly not me
interest rate rises, bond prices fall, yields go up.
  • #837,078
  • Sep 20, 2013 11:41pm Sep 20, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} interest rate rises, bond prices fall, yields go up.
how? there has to be a buyer of the bonds for that to happen.
the FED can't just destroy them and act like none of this ever happened.

if the FED owns all of the market (they are headed on that path), who would buy those bonds from them at 0.1%,
if indeed they decided they wanted rates to rise again?

the only reason people sold bonds this time around was because of heavy taper speculation, not anything fundamental, or yield based.

the FED actually front run the market with its rumors, the FED cashed out as we went from 1.4% to 3%,
then of course started buying again around 3% and with the FOMC, forced everyone else to get back into long bonds as well.


for the FED to dump their holdings someone will have to be buying on the opposite side. they would be getting a horrible deal.


the game is apparently to try and front run the FED but in truth, the FED always front runs the rest of the market
why wouldn't they?
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #837,079
  • Sep 21, 2013 12:20am Sep 21, 2013 12:20am
Probably this is not about bonds and yields alone but world economy as a whole - growth and stability
  • #837,080
  • Sep 21, 2013 12:33am Sep 21, 2013 12:33am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} how? there has to be a buyer of the bonds for that to happen. the FED can't just destroy them and act like none of this ever happened. if the FED owns all of the market (they are headed on that path), who would buy those bonds from them at 0.1%, if indeed they decided they wanted rates to rise again? the only reason people sold bonds this time around was because of heavy taper speculation, not anything fundamental, or yield based. the FED actually front run the market with its rumors, the FED cashed out as we went from 1.4% to 3%, then of...
..... that's how bonds work 101. interest rate and price inverse.

fed keeping interest rate low for another couple years. where do you think it's gonna go after that? wonder why they've been purchasing those damn bonds....

problem you're having, looks to me, is... you think growth only. there are other purposes bonds do serve.
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