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  • #837,041
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:29pm Sep 20, 2013 2:29pm
the funny thing is that all the run up except euro has retraced almost 100% after the FOMC. spx retraced, aussie, cable, loonie, and $yen all retraced.
how many accounts busted in that run up?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,042
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:39pm Sep 20, 2013 2:39pm
read a post a couple days ago about price-in of tapering. The tapering is not priced in yet. Every attempt to sell euro was countered by a up thrust triggered by data release or news release. In the end sellers have to dump their earlier shorts and sell higher. There simply are not many shorts accumulated from big guys, so tapering is not priced in. If tapering was ever priced in, one would expect much more reaction than this, one would see more dumping of shorts. But right now it is not the case. This run up is more technical than fundamental.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,043
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:54pm Sep 20, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} what's the low you're expecting?
looks like they are going to park spx around the previous high of 1710. Making it very confusing to a lot of people for next week. See how those bastards play mind game?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,044
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:55pm Sep 20, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting ffleo
the funny thing is that all the run up except euro has retraced almost 100% after the FOMC. spx retraced, aussie, cable, loonie, and $yen all retraced.

how many accounts busted in that run up?
Thought you gonna explain the reasons
  • #837,045
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:58pm Sep 20, 2013 2:58pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Thought you gonna explain the reasons
there is nothing fundamentally changed yet
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,046
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:00pm Sep 20, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} there is nothing fundamentally changed yet
Then there must be another reason why E/U hasn't retraced
  • #837,047
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:03pm Sep 20, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting ffleo
read a post a couple days ago about price-in of tapering. The tapering is not priced in yet. Every attempt to sell euro was countered by a up thrust triggered by data release or news release. In the end sellers have to dump their earlier shorts and sell higher. There simply are not many shorts accumulated from big guys, so tapering is not priced in. If tapering was ever priced in, one would expect much more reaction than this, one would see more dumping of shorts. But right now it is not the case. This run up is more technical than fundamental.
I would disagree and say it was totally the other way around, you did not take into consideration that"price in" was done from the bottom and maybe somebody new that fed has nothing to offer, we woudn't be so high atm if it was technical move. And retracements are normal even full moves before continuation. All we need now is election results from Germany, then usual US budget game comes into play, we need those triggers for levels to become important. Do not underestimate Fed, this could have serious implication for a dollar, it basically show that recovery is very sluggish, more than most expected.
swing it!
  • #837,048
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:04pm Sep 20, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Then there must be another reason why E/U hasn't retraced
Perhaps waiting for Monday's news
  • #837,049
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:04pm Sep 20, 2013 3:04pm
what will be the outcome of the election in Germany for the euro? If she wins or lose?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #837,050
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:08pm Sep 20, 2013 3:08pm
German election will cause the euro to drop... ready for a big gap on Monday...
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #837,051
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:11pm Sep 20, 2013 3:11pm
guys...
I plan to trade large sizes eur/usd right from early Monday...I mean sell it.

do you expect proper factors to cause dollar climbing high during early week??

i just assume the long swing of last days after that break.out in 18th september has to come to end...
always draw trendlines
  • #837,052
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:12pm Sep 20, 2013 3:12pm
Wow so many insiders info publicly disseminated lol
  • #837,053
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:12pm Sep 20, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I would disagree and say it was totally the other way around, you did not take into consideration that"price in" was done from the bottom and maybe somebody new that fed has nothing to offer, we woudn't be so high atm if it was technical move. And retracements are normal even full moves before continuation. All we need now is election results from Germany, then usual US budget game comes into play, we need those triggers for levels to become important. Do not underestimate Fed, this could have serious implication for a dollar, it basically...
I mean price in of people expecting tapering. With tapering, people will expect the dollar to strengthen, thus buying dollar which will lead euro going down. but euro did not go down. People tried to price in but was countered by the moves of the Fed. The end effect of TRYING to price in was not successful. People tried but failed.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,054
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:17pm Sep 20, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting Ken A
Wow so many insiders info publicly disseminated lol

And what is your opinion Ken?
  • #837,055
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:17pm Sep 20, 2013 3:17pm
So you guys already made up your mind... OK...
  • #837,056
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:20pm Sep 20, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting theXfiles
{quote} Perhaps waiting for Monday's news
Quoting theXfiles
{quote} And what is your opinion Ken?
Perhaps I am just looking for much needed insight

I don't know and don't want to make it sounds like I know what's gonna happen
  • #837,057
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:20pm Sep 20, 2013 3:20pm
shorting eu based on:

  1. 3 tests of support at 1.3508
  2. over bought

have a nice weekend everyone!

use leverage with caution...
  • #837,058
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:21pm Sep 20, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I would disagree and say it was totally the other way around, you did not take into consideration that"price in" was done from the bottom and maybe somebody new that fed has nothing to offer, we woudn't be so high atm if it was technical move. And retracements are normal even full moves before continuation. All we need now is election results from Germany, then usual US budget game comes into play, we need those triggers for levels to become important. Do not underestimate Fed, this could have serious implication for a dollar, it basically...
I believe we think the same way.
Why euro is so high at the moment if people expect tapering? People do expect tapering and do sell euro. But every attempt to sell euro was countered by the move of the fed. So intention to price in tapering was failed (because the fed countered it). the end results is that not much has priced in yet for the expectation of tapering. Yes the Fed is very powerful before the dollar drops to the #2 place of reserve currencies.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #837,059
  • Edited 3:36pm Sep 20, 2013 3:24pm | Edited 3:36pm
So many newbs. We're going 1.36/1.3620 before any selling.

Been calling it for 6 weeks but was thrown off guard by the 3452 to 3104 correction to 50% fib (taper speculation and daily divergences)

still I bought the dip 1.313 and life is good.

too many of you focused on noise... trade the daily/weekly/monthly

why 1.36? january monthly close with bearish divergence potential.

the last monthly divergence was July 2012, bullish of course
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #837,060
  • Sep 20, 2013 3:24pm Sep 20, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting theXfiles
{quote} And what is your opinion Ken?
insider info is not allowed to disclose.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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