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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #461
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:47am Sep 17, 2013 2:47am
Quoting KADC
Davit, when you asked about RSI settings you made me go back and toy with them. It's a bit of a hassle to have to reset the value for each time frame so I tried out 12 which would approximately represent two weeks on the daily chart as opposed to the standard 14 (which I'm sure has some mathematical basis), half a day on the hourly and a fifth of an hour for 5 minute but I couldn't find the same degree of confluence that I did with the default setting of 14 which could mean that because 14 is the default, markets have adapted to reacting that setting...

Hi KADC
Solid trading.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #462
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:16am Sep 17, 2013 8:16am
Quoting Davit
Guys thanks for concern.I am back to posting normal.My suspension has been lifted and it was just misunderstanding. I am still in the red both GC and GU I closed some trades on GC to generate profits on the dips and added back on top. GC+177pips but still in the red.This is a period that value of low leverage and small lots really becomes essential to account health. Here is my believe.Any system will experience some sort of losses or DD during its life.Turtle system often experienced massive DD as much as 60% and yet it was very profitable in the...
Glad you're back sir..
  • #463
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:38am Sep 17, 2013 9:38am
damn that gbpcad. i was going to short it ... BUT i placed the limit order a little to high. just missed the trade of my lifetime (well not really but it was going to be really good)
  • #464
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:13am Sep 17, 2013 11:13am
Quoting mr.thinker
{quote} Glad you're back sir..

Thank you Mr Thinker!Lets think only green pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #465
  • Edited 12:17pm Sep 17, 2013 11:18am | Edited 12:17pm
Quoting Starry
damn that gbpcad. i was going to short it ... BUT i placed the limit order a little to high. just missed the trade of my lifetime (well not really but it was going to be really good)

Hi Starry
Checkout GJ as well.I made the mistake also placing limit at 158.50 instead of RN 158 which got hit.
If you look at the chart this monster is one ripe tomato.Its reaching 2009 highs.
Edit added limit short at 158.0 as well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.weekly.png Size: 41 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #466
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:05pm Sep 17, 2013 2:05pm
Huge day tomorrow and lot can happen.
Great article to read.

I anticipate 10-15Billion reduction tomorrow that would be positive news to Greenbacks.I am short on Cable and I want this.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #467
  • Sep 17, 2013 3:17pm Sep 17, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting Davit
Guys thanks for concern.I am back to posting normal.My suspension has been lifted and it was just misunderstanding. I am still in the red both GC and GU I closed some trades on GC to generate profits on the dips and added back on top. GC+177pips but still in the red.This is a period that value of low leverage and small lots really becomes essential to account health. Here is my believe.Any system will experience some sort of losses or DD during its life.Turtle system often experienced massive DD as much as 60% and yet it was very profitable in the...
Glad you're back Davit - ...that was weird. Good tips there on drawdown and how to trim your losses like on the GC. Should be interesting to see what the Pound does...I did not get in on the GU last week.

Bryan
  • #468
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:21pm Sep 17, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Starry Checkout GJ as well.I made the mistake also placing limit at 158.50 instead of RN 158 which got hit. If you look at the chart this monster is one ripe tomato.Its reaching 2009 highs. Edit added limit short at 158.0 as well {image}
hey davit

hope youre trades are going well. good ideal, i like that trade ideal better than the gc which has already dropped! touche!
  • #469
  • Edited 4:24am Sep 19, 2013 3:51am | Edited 4:24am
Possible head and shoulders pattern forming on the hourly chart for GBP/AUD. Neckline is at 1.688. Target would be ~1.625.

Caveat: Ideally one would want to see Aussie strength versus Pound weakness whereas data shows the opposite to be the case so the fundamentals for this head and shoulders pattern are not the best, though that doesn't mean it won't play out. Alternatively, if the neckline once again confirms support the upside target is 1.718 then the recent high of 1.75.

It should also be noted that but the Aussie and Pound USD crosses have daily RSI at extreme levels: The last time daily RSI was this high for AUD/USD was February of 2012 and it was followed by a massive failure. The last time daily RSI for GBP/USD was at this level was September of 2012 and it too resulted in a massive failure. Again, it would be more constructive to see one with more room for upside momentum while the other falls to give the GBP/AUD a better indication of direction.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #470
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:47am Sep 19, 2013 7:47am
USD/CAD has broken below daily RSI support and is at the upward price channel support of the weekly chart. As there was no bounce from yesterday's drop a break below the trend line has me targeting 1.015 then parity.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #471
  • Sep 28, 2013 6:15pm Sep 28, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks for the Indicator.You should install the ADR indicator I posted here.Its highly valuable. You get the feel of the movement by just looking at it. In case you missed it.Here it is again.I just love it and found nothing like it.You are not late to GU shorts You are at the right time! {file}

Hi Davit...I hope you are doing well my artist friend. I have wanted to integrate either an ADR or ATR indicator into my strategy...but for some reason I have completely failed to find an effective use for this type of Data...I think it is quite simple and I am overlooking something. Since I generally understand your style of thinking...can you give me some tips on how you use the ADR with your strategy ? or, if you have already discussed it somewhere else on the site...can you direct me to a post ?

Also, as my skills increase...soon I would like to begin adding additional orders to my trades, to build positions. Not neccessarilly more limit orders...but the type of order you once referred to as 'reserve soldiers'....or, buy/sell stops in-between my limits and my targets...but need to work that out.

I am in on the swissy...my first CHF trade, waited some time for this one. see below.

Thank you,
Bryan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #472
  • Sep 29, 2013 12:28am Sep 29, 2013 12:28am
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Hi Davit...I hope you are doing well my artist friend. I have wanted to integrate either an ADR or ATR indicator into my strategy...but for some reason I have completely failed to find an effective use for this type of Data...I think it is quite simple and I am overlooking something. Since I generally understand your style of thinking...can you give me some tips on how you use the ADR with your strategy ? or, if you have already discussed it somewhere else on the site...can you direct me to a post ? Also, as my skills increase...soon I would...

Bryno
I am not doing well now.I violated BWILC principle of trading against main trend. The book made it clear system works best when going with the main trend.Too deep in red on GU and GC.Not happy about it.
ADR concept is simple.It gives you pairs daily range.If the pair moved 96 pips say on GU then it already maxed its movement so you could either time the entry or exit.Its a fast way to see daily range.Generally cross pairs travel more then majors.You can see it on GC VS GU.
Must go now.I will get back more.
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #473
  • Sep 29, 2013 2:32am Sep 29, 2013 2:32am
Quoting Davit
I consider myself flexible trader and often get stifled on rigid trading systems. I consider Support and Resistance,Sentiment,direction to be most important. If you like to trade on these basic concepts then its enough to improve your trading tremendously. I think of these three elements in trading like a skeleton which holds everything together. I also use fibs as a support tool.It is important to understand that Price does not necessarily reflect Fib levels or any levels at all. Price is determined by buyers and sellers hence pushed one or other...
I am following..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #474
  • Sep 29, 2013 2:34am Sep 29, 2013 2:34am
a view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #475
  • Sep 29, 2013 4:24pm Sep 29, 2013 4:24pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Bryno I am not doing well now.I violated BWILC principle of trading against main trend. The book made it clear system works best when going with the main trend.Too deep in red on GU and GC.Not happy about it. ADR concept is simple.It gives you pairs daily range.If the pair moved 96 pips say on GU then it already maxed its movement so you could either time the entry or exit.Its a fast way to see daily range.Generally cross pairs travel more then majors.You can see it on GC VS GU. Must go now.I will get back more. REgards
Davit...got it, hang in there man, the G should crack short any day now. Thanks for the ADR info...we can get back to that another time.

Your pal,
Bryno
  • #476
  • Oct 1, 2013 4:50am Oct 1, 2013 4:50am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Bryno I am not doing well now.I violated BWILC principle of trading against main trend. The book made it clear system works best when going with the main trend.Too deep in red on GU and GC.Not happy about it. ADR concept is simple.It gives you pairs daily range.If the pair moved 96 pips say on GU then it already maxed its movement so you could either time the entry or exit.Its a fast way to see daily range.Generally cross pairs travel more then majors.You can see it on GC VS GU. Must go now.I will get back more. REgards
I had to sit on my trades well into four figures before things finally turned around. Not a strategy I would recommend.

A few moments ago Abe announced Japan's new stimulus package timed just as the Yen was breaking higher, no doubt to curb too much money flowing into the Yen while Italy's future remains in doubt which coupled with poor PMI data is dragging down the Euro and the U.S. is temporarily closed for business. Good news for Aussie on top of good data but I don't want to be putting my money going long in risk-on currency in a risk-off environment, leaving just the Pound which I'd expect to take off like a rocket once US market opens in the morning. Going (continuing/adding) long GPB/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/JPY.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #477
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:33pm Oct 1, 2013 12:33pm
Hi Bryno and KADC
I closed all my GC shorts with a loss. 25% of my account.Biggest loss so far in my trading venture.
I did keep GU shorts and added some more at 62 area.
Pound strength cut me off guard.When and if GU comes down to 1.55 or close to it I will break even and some more.I do think pound has been severely overbought based mostly on Sept unemployment 7.7 down from 7.8 and combine that with Feds not tempering combination was drastic.
I do think that Feds will start cutting soon by year end.



KADC perhaps you should consider taking your profits from cable now or at least don't add new longs since I do think we are heading to correction phase.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #478
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:43pm Oct 1, 2013 12:43pm
limit short on EC
price struggling to break 3980-90 zone
Key fib area for reversal 78.6-88.6 my red box
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #479
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:36pm Oct 1, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Bryno and KADC I closed all my GC shorts with a loss. 25% of my account.Biggest loss so far in my trading venture. I did keep GU shorts and added some more at 62 area. Pound strength cut me off guard.When and if GU comes down to 1.55 or close to it I will break even and some more.I do think pound has been severely overbought based mostly on Sept unemployment 7.7 down from 7.8 and combine that with Feds not tempering combination was drastic. I do think that Feds will start cutting soon by year end. KADC perhaps you should consider taking your...
Yes, I'm out with minor profits followed by large losses almost across the board which combine to probably my worst trading day in two years -- a result of doubling my positions from being overly confident from too many recent successes. I'm not even sure how I managed to give up so much given how little movement there was today (except gold). Well, I've bought myself an expensive dose of humility.

I'm back in long now at the price where everything has settled. I agree that the Pound is overdue for a pull-back but I'm not sure this is the right environment with the other three majors having headline news pulling them down. I don't know why we didn't see a massive US$ sell-off (and stocks are up too?!!) but I'm long here looking for a double-top before the Pound finally falls. At the very least there should be a bounce from here for some small gains.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #480
  • Oct 3, 2013 1:34pm Oct 3, 2013 1:34pm
Entered Long on Swissy
I see it as more longer term trade.Target 94-96
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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