Davit's Confluence Trading | Page 23 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

My Trading General following Davit Pivot Strategy 2 replies

Bollinger Band Confluence Trading 16 replies

Confluence Trading Adventures 0 replies

Trading based on Confluence 20 replies

Confluence Trading 30 replies

Attachments: Davit's Confluence Trading
Exit Attachments

Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #441
  • Sep 7, 2013 10:04am Sep 7, 2013 10:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Starry.Love those arcs.Could you share your indi if applicable to metatrader4? Looks to me 2 red arcs overlapping is 127 fib extension (2nd chart) This makes sense harmonically because 127 is usually when price turns around if not then 1.618 ext. next.

sorry, unfortunately metatrader doesnt support it

I programmed it on ninjatrader. Its here, the gridcircletexture. You would need to turn all the parameteres to "false" (turn off grid, turn off extended arc, turn off extended grid). Then it looks as shown in the picture.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=437919

I based it on a commercial tool called "gunner24", but mines better (mostly because i made it!)
  • #442
  • Sep 7, 2013 10:25am Sep 7, 2013 10:25am
Quoting Starry
{quote} sorry, unfortunately metatrader doesnt support it I programmed it on ninjatrader. Its here, the gridcircletexture. You would need to turn all the parameteres to "false" (turn off grid, turn off extended arc, turn off extended grid). Then it looks as shown in the picture. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=437919 I based it on a commercial tool called "gunner24", but mines better (mostly because i made it!)

Great job!
Was I correct though about 1.27 2arcs intersecting? It still fits within harmonic principles which I like .
They are lot of harmonic patterns but most powerful in my opinion is Gartley.
Pay special attention to 1.27 and 1.618 extensions for price turning points.
Attached Images
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #443
  • Sep 7, 2013 10:35am Sep 7, 2013 10:35am
On practical terms looking at GC Price did indeed turn around at 1.27 extension.
My shorts target is 618 retrace.38.2 has not been taken out yet at 6150
I am patient guy so I will wait.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.daily.png Size: 54 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #444
  • Sep 7, 2013 10:44am Sep 7, 2013 10:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Great job! Was I correct though about 1.27 2arcs intersecting? It still fits within harmonic principles which I like . They are lot of harmonic patterns but most powerful in my opinion is Gartley. Pay special attention to 1.27 and 1.618 extensions for price turning points. {image} {image}

thanks not quite, but close enough! Im not practiced enough to know that about Gartleys, but I have found that 1.27 extensions are quite common.
  • #445
  • Edited 3:36pm Sep 7, 2013 11:12am | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting Davit
On practical terms looking at GC Price did indeed turn around at 1.27 extension. My shorts target is 618 retrace.38.2 has not been taken out yet at 6150 I am patient guy so I will wait. {image}

Looks like its one of those swings which will have to shoot down (on the weekly).
good luck, it should have no problem reaching that level

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_weekly.png Size: 114 KB



take profit on audusd, 61.8 retracement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_tp.png Size: 73 KB
  • #446
  • Sep 9, 2013 5:51am Sep 9, 2013 5:51am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Bryno I think we had this discussion that I said I won't sell Aussie and Kiwi and only buy. Reason is simple.Both are oversold hence its higher probable trade to go long once price deflates on both. You must make a trading decisions on each pair and stick with it. To me GC Short UC Short UJ Short AU long NU Long EG Long So far.Notice I don't flip flap.This is my style based on price and fundamentals.Once you decide your direction bias then its a question of right entry.Pretty much stress free. My mistake lately been early entry on GC...

Hey Davit...Yeah, you are right, we did have this discussion, when you outlined your blueprint for september. I see, you would not take a smaller sell opportunity inside of your broader long bias. It's like a trend trader taking counter trend positions.

So it's really about an effective bias...and not getting in too soon with your method... ?

I am understanding the broader outlook on profit/loss by month/quarter as well...not day or week. Last week was a fascinating week for me...it was a losing week and I am still holding some losing positions...but, not only am I emboldening my ability to live with risk ( as part of the job ) I am working on developing my patience as well...and hitting my targets. I could have trimmed my losses by taking early profits...but my targets are still quite modest, so I should be able to hit them.

On switching systems, I know..I have done that many times...jaja. But this is it for me. I am working with your style and one other trend trading system.

Davit...this Syrian crisis is buggin me, hesitant to take positions. Are you trading as planned or waiting to see what congress does with Obama's plan?

Thank you,
Bryan
  • #447
  • Sep 9, 2013 6:29am Sep 9, 2013 6:29am
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Hey Davit...Yeah, you are right, we did have this discussion, when you outlined your blueprint for september. I see, you would not take a smaller sell opportunity inside of your broader long bias. It's like a trend trader taking counter trend positions. So it's really about an effective bias...and not getting in too soon with your method... ? I am understanding the broader outlook on profit/loss by month/quarter as well...not day or week. Last week was a fascinating week for me...it was a losing week and I am still holding some...

Hi Bryno
I did take 4 small shorts on Cable.I hope your positions become profitable.I am still holding on GC trades.It did come down almost 50% waiting for the other 50%.As long as I am getting paid positive swap I am fine to hold.My 1st GC trade was 8/15 so 9/15 will be my 1st ever longest open position.
Syrian crises could work both ways.Greenbacks could temporarily like few days weaken or get very strong.I am ignoring it as major factor.To me its not.
REgards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 41 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #448
  • Sep 9, 2013 8:06am Sep 9, 2013 8:06am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Bryno I did take 4 small shorts on Cable.I hope your positions become profitable.I am still holding on GC trades.It did come down almost 50% waiting for the other 50%.As long as I am getting paid positive swap I am fine to hold.My 1st GC trade was 8/15 so 9/15 will be my 1st ever longest open position. Syrian crises could work both ways.Greenbacks could temporarily like few days weaken or get very strong.I am ignoring it as major factor.To me its not. REgards {image}

Hey Davit...Ok yeah, I did see your recent post on Cable as well. And your post on 786 fib from Carney's point of view. Still a bit behind on the good info here on your thread though.

Yep, still holding my trades from last week, thanks for the support. 'trading is waiting,' as you say...

Ok on Syria...'not major'

Bryan
  • #449
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:37am Sep 9, 2013 9:37am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Bryno I did take 4 small shorts on Cable.I hope your positions become profitable.I am still holding on GC trades.It did come down almost 50% waiting for the other 50%.As long as I am getting paid positive swap I am fine to hold.My 1st GC trade was 8/15 so 9/15 will be my 1st ever longest open position. Syrian crises could work both ways.Greenbacks could temporarily like few days weaken or get very strong.I am ignoring it as major factor.To me its not. REgards {image}

Davit...also, nice on the 1 month trade there. That's cool. I have been watching the GC. Have you ever thought to use a buy or sell stop as your stop loss? I think Sam Seiden does that...not sure though.

There may be a strong bottom forming on the EG, I am in long at .84445. Daily chart.

Thanks,
Bryan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpdaily-strong bottom-01.png Size: 58 KB
  • #450
  • Sep 9, 2013 4:26pm Sep 9, 2013 4:26pm
You guys just for fun I noticed something peculiar about GU
It looks like 7 days price travels roughly 200pips from swing highs.So If you are short like me hold on to a week.
All the grey boxes are approximately 7 days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 53 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #451
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:10pm Sep 9, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting Davit
You guys just for fun I noticed something peculiar about GU It looks like 7 days price travels roughly 200pips from swing highs.So If you are short like me hold on to a week. All the grey boxes are approximately 7 days. {image}
None of my entry orders triggered on Friday, so the day was a wash, and after the gap up I didn't want to enter any trades today either.

I like your Cable idea. Last year I fiddled with the notion that Cable, more than any other pair, likes to go sideways then make sudden 100 pip moves up then more sideways, but I couldn't find a specific trigger pattern that I could make use of. I haven't looked at it in those terms since then but it does seem to follow a more regular two step up, one step down than most pairs.

The 61.8% retracement using the weekly chart from the high in January is at ~1.579 so I'd like to short from a minor 1.58 overshoot of that target.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #452
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:46pm Sep 10, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting Davit
You guys just for fun I noticed something peculiar about GU It looks like 7 days price travels roughly 200pips from swing highs.So If you are short like me hold on to a week. All the grey boxes are approximately 7 days. {image}

Thanks Davit..interesting. I have orders in on the GU, got to it late so the orders are way up on the upper edge.

Also...I think this indicator is helpful for plotting Round numbers. If you are interested. I turn it off and on. It is good because the lines will stay put and cannot be deleted. Turning values to 'zero' will turn lines off.

Thank you,
Bryan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4-sell limit-01.png Size: 48 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Grid_v1_0.ex4   5 KB | 218 downloads
  • #453
  • Sep 10, 2013 9:10pm Sep 10, 2013 9:10pm
I was long EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD in the US session after minor pull-backs (missed the moves up). I placed tight stops at half my profit so I could get in at a better price assuming moves down would turn into proper pull-backs but got stopped out just before they went up again and didn't bother re-entering so late in the US session.

I've re-entered long on the Yen crosses in the Asian session ...just before Obama spoke which whip-lashed the market (which is an example of why I don't normally use stops) and I'll take a look at other pairs when Europe gets out of bed though my primary focus is on gold right now which I did quite well on on the way down (now reversed and going long).

DailyFX tweeted AUD/JPY as a pair to watch. It's moving straight as a ruler and just broke resistance, but AUD/USD bounced off of resistance so I'd like to see it AUD/USD break to the upside before taking any long Aussie positions, and I won't go long against the Yen, so I'll sit on the sidelines for that pair for now.

Interactive brokers resets their servers between midnight and 12:30 a.m. EST which is maddening, but it's also a reminder to take a break, so that's what I'm going to do while my connection resets instead of watching the screen flash and listen to the warning bells.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #454
  • Sep 10, 2013 10:03pm Sep 10, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting KADC
I was long EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD in the US session after minor pull-backs (missed the moves up). I placed tight stops at half my profit so I could get in at a better price assuming moves down would turn into proper pull-backs but got stopped out just before they went up again and didn't bother re-entering so late in the US session. I've re-entered long on the Yen crosses in the Asian session ...just before Obama spoke which whip-lashed the market (which is an example of why I don't normally use stops) and I'll take a look at other pairs...
Hi KADC
I don't use stops either.I have limit shorts on UJ from 101
I can easily see back to 97 again.RSI still has room to go up.I hope I get triggered.
I feel more relaxed about GU shorts.RSI is approaching 80 which is when markets turn around.
Aussie and Kiwi I am waiting for a pull back to go long.I won't go long at these prices.
Regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.daily.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 41 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #455
  • Sep 10, 2013 10:06pm Sep 10, 2013 10:06pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Thanks Davit..interesting. I have orders in on the GU, got to it late so the orders are way up on the upper edge. Also...I think this indicator is helpful for plotting Round numbers. If you are interested. I turn it off and on. It is good because the lines will stay put and cannot be deleted. Turning values to 'zero' will turn lines off. Thank you, Bryan {image} {file}

Thanks for the Indicator.You should install the ADR indicator I posted here.Its highly valuable.
You get the feel of the movement by just looking at it.
In case you missed it.Here it is again.I just love it and found nothing like it.You are not late to GU shorts You are at the right time!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ADR_v2.ex4   11 KB | 234 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #456
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:47am Sep 11, 2013 1:47am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi KADC I don't use stops either.I have limit shorts on UJ from 101 I can easily see back to 97 again.RSI still has room to go up.I hope I get triggered. I feel more relaxed about GU shorts.RSI is approaching 80 which is when markets turn around. Aussie and Kiwi I am waiting for a pull back to go long.I won't go long at these prices. Regards {image} {image}
The overreaction to the minor improvement in British unemployment was, as usual, exactly 0.01 in GBP/USD, but that's less important than the push up breaking through 1.5750 resistance, opening the way to the January high of 1.5875 with round number 1.60 in view which was supportive during the September and December highs of 1.63 which is where I thing GBP/USD is headed if 1.59 is breached.

As long as price stays above 1.5750 I'm bullish Cable and when I get a supportive 5-minute RSI trendline I'll go long targeting a retest of the high of 1.5825 which was just made.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #457
  • Sep 13, 2013 4:39am Sep 13, 2013 4:39am
Davit, when you asked about RSI settings you made me go back and toy with them. It's a bit of a hassle to have to reset the value for each time frame so I tried out 12 which would approximately represent two weeks on the daily chart as opposed to the standard 14 (which I'm sure has some mathematical basis), half a day on the hourly and a fifth of an hour for 5 minute but I couldn't find the same degree of confluence that I did with the default setting of 14 which could mean that because 14 is the default, markets have adapted to reacting that setting regardless whether or not it represents a fundamental time period.

Currently I am holding long on EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD targeting initially 133.5, 101.5, 1.34, 1.59, and 1.725 respectively, all of which are approximate prior support or resistance levels, and I'm short gold with a target of $1275.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #458
  • Sep 15, 2013 3:30pm Sep 15, 2013 3:30pm
Are you going to keep Davit off the airwaves forever FF ? I gotta talk to im, mano a mano.
  • #459
  • Sep 16, 2013 12:57am Sep 16, 2013 12:57am
Quoting bryn077
Are you going to keep Davit off the airwaves forever FF ? I gotta talk to im, mano a mano.
What happened with davit?why he get suspended?
  • #460
  • Sep 17, 2013 12:42am Sep 17, 2013 12:42am
Guys thanks for concern.I am back to posting normal.My suspension has been lifted and it was just misunderstanding.

I am still in the red both GC and GU
I closed some trades on GC to generate profits on the dips and added back on top.
GC+177pips but still in the red.This is a period that value of low leverage and small lots really becomes essential to account health.
Here is my believe.Any system will experience some sort of losses or DD during its life.Turtle system often experienced massive DD as much as 60% and yet it was very profitable in the long run.
Right now market is really pushing British Pound to extreme and knowing market makers and knowing their tactics to squeeze retail traders (75% short on cable) I knowingly and patiently waiting for turn around and a new trend to south.Nothing goes up forever.
I have placed limit Shorts on GJ at 158.50 .Lets see what happens on Weds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.daily.png Size: 33 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
0 traders viewing now