Sonic R. System | Page 2968 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Sonic R.evolution 95 replies

The System Behind the System, by Merlin Jeffries 16 replies

Old School Sonic System + Other Things 11 replies

Knife system, Vegas 4h system related questions. 4 replies

Would you trade this system? New system #2. 10 replies

Attachments: Sonic R. System
Exit Attachments

Sonic R. System

  • #59,341
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:35am Sep 18, 2013 10:35am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Indeed, Limited Pockets Yes, because we have limited resources we must meter out our building entries. In the most extreme of cases, there are two things that can be done. As was already mentioned earlier here, one thing is to simply close out some components to diminish the draw down. If the current (and possibly increased draw down if prices move further against trades) is not the issue but you do not want to make things more difficult, then simply stop your building and just ride it out. Personally, I have done the latter. I am riding...

Because of not adding more trade components your average price does not rise anymore. The consequence can be that your average price will not be reached a very long time.
  • #59,342
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:37am Sep 18, 2013 10:37am
Quoting jpmshadow
{quote} 90,000 pips DD is poor trading, simply laughable.
Laughable


What is laughable is that you are a newcomer attracted to this thread late in August, after supposedly 7 years of experience, attracted because you saw something better than you'd achieved elsewhere to date:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post6917731

Now, in less that one month you fancy yourself expert enough on PVSRA to render your opinion.

You have no idea of the project that is going on, of the mistakes being made and the learning being accomplished. All you can do is be negative instead of being intelligent and realizing the work that is being done here, the road that is being paved by others, so that folks like you might be better off in the future.

Maybe, since you claim to have 7 years of experience, you should find ways to contribute positively. It is always easier to tear down than to build up. And you will be known by your works.

-tah
  • #59,343
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:44am Sep 18, 2013 10:44am
Quoting futurespeter
{quote} Because of not adding more trade components your average price does not rise anymore. The consequence can be that your average price will not be reached a very long time.
And what is your solution then? Adding more and raise DD ? Or what?
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #59,344
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:47am Sep 18, 2013 10:47am
Does someone knows where is Tymedu, qFish, JRissa ?
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #59,345
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:48am Sep 18, 2013 10:48am
Quoting loeil
{quote} And what is your solution then? Adding more and raise DD ? Or what?

Sorry, I do not have any solution. I did also stop adding.
  • #59,346
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:49am Sep 18, 2013 10:49am
Quoting futurespeter
{quote} Because of not adding more trade components your average price does not rise anymore. The consequence can be that your average price will not be reached a very long time.
How Does Your Broker Work?

Yes, and I do not argue that point. Nevertheless, even after quite some time substantial profits come. Each trader must decide how they are going to trade and how they are going to handle any difficulties that arise when they trade. This will never change, no matter how a trader trades.

There is one important consideration not previously mentioned. Some brokers will close out all existing trades if there is a margin call, which could devastate an account. Not all brokers do this, and will only close out the most recent trades that are necessary to close in order to establish an appropriate new margin level. It is important that every trader knows exactly what their broker, or brokers, will do in this regard. Do not assume anything! Find out.

-tah
  • #59,347
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:54am Sep 18, 2013 10:54am
Quoting loeil
{quote} Yeah, I stop adding GU and GJ also, DD~30% too big for me. Maybe the price will raise more. Now just waiting and hoping. If GU is raising 200-300 pips more I take into account to close some of them. Let's see.
Loeil,

we shouldnt forget to analyze higher TF. GU is very strong and probably price will raise much more. OMG, hope I am wrong ..

Can also compare a strenght on this link; http://megatrendfx.com/additional-fo...eter-indicator
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm15.png Size: 57 KB
  • #59,348
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:57am Sep 18, 2013 10:57am
Quoting gizma1
{quote} Loeil, we shouldnt forget to analyze higher TF. GU is very strong and probably price will raise much more. OMG, hope I am wrong .. Can also compare a strenght on this link; http://megatrendfx.com/additional-fo...eter-indicator {image} {image}
gizma1, I really hope you are wrong but yeah, there is still possible that GU is raising and much more.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #59,349
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:04am Sep 18, 2013 11:04am
Quoting futurespeter
{quote} Sorry, I do not have any solution. I did also stop adding.
A Reasoned Mind

That was a proper choice to make. Closing some trade components is a last ditch stand move.

We know that we cannot know how the MMs are going to move price, nor how far in either direction. We can discern their intent, but not their timing. Where we enter and for how far we can take the ride, well we are....are we not.....learning? Was not learning what PVSRA can offer and how to best use it, what this has been all about?

By the time the MMs have concluded their Summer Fair, my guess is that there will not be a single trader that has not had difficulties and losses sometime during the event, whether Sonicers or not! The entire purpose of what we have seen the market do, has been to drive out weak hands. It is that simple. And the market does this because it works. Some will come out of this scarred. None will come out of this unaffected. It is part of trading. And our work here at the Sonic R. System thread is to help, not hurt, traders be more successful. Sometimes, success is measured in how much one does not lose. Sad, but true. So, for all the complaining some participate in here, I doubt they've given even a thought to what might have happened had they traded their old ways.

I think PVSRA will come out smelling like a rose, and this Summer Fair experience will make participating traders much, much better traders for their experiences; more knowing of PVSRA and best ways to use it, and of how the market works overall.

-tah
  • #59,350
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:06am Sep 18, 2013 11:06am
Remember the MM's have complete control over all markets now. There are no criminal acts that are punished. The large institutions have had zero losses on their books. Institutions like JPM that were levied a fine of 750 million is a joke as they make that money every day. They look at it as the cost of doing business. They have the ability to move markets in any direction they choose. News or no news makes no difference. I do believe that they will not run in one direction for ever as they need to steal more money and if they go in one direction only they will run out of traders from which to steal. There is little volume in the Stock market but they keep making new highs with less and less volume. This seems odd to me but none of the regulators seem to care.

That being said I agree there must be a way to filter scout entries. I am working on some ideas once I have some more testing I will post some of my ideas to see if there is any interest.

See chart for volume on S&P.
Attached Image
  • #59,351
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:24am Sep 18, 2013 11:24am
Quoting gizma1
{quote} Loeil, we shouldnt forget to analyze higher TF. GU is very strong and probably price will raise much more. OMG, hope I am wrong .. Can also compare a strenght on this link; http://megatrendfx.com/additional-fo...eter-indicator {image} {image}
Quoting loeil
{quote} gizma1, I really hope you are wrong but yeah, there is still possible that GU is raising and much more.
What About GU?

All we can know is that once more, today this time, the MMs hiked the price. And it is clear that the higher they moved the price, the more trading they did. This is selling: selling to close longs or selling to open shorts, or both, but either way it indicates the MMs are bears.

Now, add to this the fact that the MMs pushed the price above the half number SR to do the bulk of their trading today, and we get PVSRA confirmation the MMs are bears.

That is all we know. Will they push higher? We cannot know if it will happen, nor how far the MMs might manipulate the price higher, if it does happen. All we can know is the MMs are demonstrating they are not really very bullish now.....to say the least!

-tah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sept 2013 - 117.png Size: 53 KB
  • #59,352
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:33am Sep 18, 2013 11:33am
I am posting this as just an idea. I know that indicators are frowned on but I believe that PVSRA analysis combined with Sonic 15min setups confirmed by 4hr or daily divergence might enhance entries and allow less draw down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Fractal Divergence.jpg Size: 300 KB
  • #59,353
  • Edited 12:05pm Sep 18, 2013 11:41am | Edited 12:05pm
Quoting worldfreedom
I am posting this as just an idea. I know that indicators are frowned on but I believe that PVSRA analysis combined with Sonic 15min setups confirmed by 4hr or daily divergence might enhance entries and allow less draw down. {image}
worldfreedom,

I do not wish to quash an effort that might hold worthy fruit. This is not my intent when I say the following....

The H1 chart is universal across all brokers, unlike the H4 (or even the Day to some very small degree), so if we could filter using H1 that would be better I think. I keep thinking of HL series showing up, sufficiently repetitive to show whatever we need to see on H1. Please look into this, also? Maybe even a HL "PA" wave formed by the Dragon itself, or at least a Dragon double top or double bottom (even if not exactly striking same highs or lows)?

Attached is a H1 chart with a 17ema Dragon (selected only because it is a prime number and of course, more responsive than 34ema, which might be ok on H1 for this purpose) and maybe it will end up sort of a double top (with higher second high of the Dragon) which could provide enough delay of entries to be more sure of a new trend, or at least of a new run to some range bottom somewhere lower. I also applied the FR study to the first leg of a PA wave down, to point out that while the third leg of the PA wave broke out, not by much. Maybe we can apply a "breakout" level to the FR study, a level more sufficient to avoid such head fakes. Yes, gives up some profits, but that is the balance necessary if folks want increased odds of not entering too soon. I like something involving the FR study as opposed to using a Dragon, because it could even then be applied down on the M15 chart also.

....Just some things to expand the box we think in.

-tah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sept 2013 - 118.png Size: 58 KB
  • #59,354
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:42am Sep 18, 2013 11:42am
All GBP pairs are quite overbought short-term. Sooner or later there will be a correction as MM's will start taking profits from this run. Despite what many believe, nothing goes up forever.
  • #59,355
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:58am Sep 18, 2013 11:58am
If you are short GU, you are not alone.
More than 90% of the positions on real accounts linked with Myfxbook are net short, 8250 short lots and 763 long lots.
Average short price 1.5718, Average long price 1.5891.
As the price moved up, the shorts piled up.
Normally you will expect the longs to pile on as the price moves up. This tells me that majority investors believes that this rally is not for real and they are fading it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 42 KB
  • #59,356
  • Edited 12:30pm Sep 18, 2013 12:07pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting bogdan11
If you are short GU, you are not alone. More than 90% of the positions on real accounts linked with Myfxbook are net short, 8250 short lots and 763 long lots. Average short price 1.5718, Average long price 1.5891. As the price moved up, the shorts piled up. Normally you will expect the longs to pile on as the price moves up. This tells me that majority investors believes that this rally is not for real and they are fading it. {image}
bogdan11,

Your post,

Leads one to become suspicious that the very reason for the incessant pushing up of price is the greed factor of the MMs. They look at all the shorts of others, with GU up here on ether, and can only see all those shorts (backed by real money) as belonging to themselves before they start running the price down. So, the MMs keep extending their credit to "buy the price higher" in order to suck in more (real money) longs and to stop out those (real money) shorts,.....an almost manical obsession for profits, driven by the trading desks of the biggest banks, to which the banks continue to fabricate "credit" for their plays. If the truth were know, I bet there is no F...king money behind most of what these banks have been doing over these past months,.....just ever increased "fiat" trading credit, fabricated out of the same ether that GU is floating on!

I tell you all, the banks are dirty rotten stinking organizations, especially those that are trading houses and big banks, now morphed into one conglomerate, and just as crooked as each part was before,.....only now with more of what it takes to steal......fake money....unlimited ability for banks to counterfeit it now in the USA (fiat money, and more created each time the banks issue credit, which they can do without gov't interference or oversight anymore!), thanks to the idiot President, Bush Jr., and all the masterminds and republican congress persons working for the super-rich during his administration.

-tah
  • #59,357
  • Sep 18, 2013 12:18pm Sep 18, 2013 12:18pm
i think FOMC don't help to USD, MMs expecting that we build shorts and waiting for release. And I think QE3 could be reduce next year but not now.
  • #59,358
  • Sep 18, 2013 12:31pm Sep 18, 2013 12:31pm
Moreover, I recently coded an EA for the classic Sonic R system, backtested on 90% data quality. The result is note quite good. It was in the past around the time this system was posted, but not few years recently.

TAH, do you think that we can make an EA for the new PVSRA system? I want to do statistic analysis for the VSA system, such as PVSRA, or at least some Tom William's basic setups. From the statistical results, I can execute decision making based on Bayesian Neural Network.

Currently, I'm working on a C# application that is going to analyze the statistic of VSA setups as well as MTPredictor setups. From these statistical data, I can see (kind of forecast) the win rate of a similar real-time setup (by inferring Bayesian network), how many % of the risk-reward gonna be, etc...All of this information is from statistical data (kind of backtest result).

If you're interested in analyzing VSA or PVSRA in term of statistics and Bayesian inference, please contact me so we can create a new thread.

Hao Nguyen
  • #59,359
  • Sep 18, 2013 12:33pm Sep 18, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting Adis
i think FOMC don't help to USD, MMs expecting that we build shorts and waiting for release. And I think QE3 could be reduce next year but not now.
Opinions Abound

Well, everybody should have an opinion about things, and better if they are "informed" opinions. But, when trading any particular instrument, all that is needed is a basic chart of that instrument with price, volume and S&R. That, and only that, provides the best information as to what the market is actually doing with that particular instrument, in the face of all the opinions that are being spread around.
  • #59,360
  • Sep 18, 2013 12:42pm Sep 18, 2013 12:42pm
The most complains on PVSRA and the theme observes most traders. Above 800 for what? Holy gral?
Tah great work.
25 traders viewing now