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Sonic R. System

  • #59,321
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:59am Sep 18, 2013 7:59am
Quoting fex
@feinan & foxsama This is my second account . Let's see what happens. Lucky for all.
5 hours to FMOC.. Miracle does happen!
t.me/LWBRfx Discord.io/LWBR
  • #59,322
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:04am Sep 18, 2013 8:04am
Quoting fex
{quote} Yes, actual DD 83% . Many are old trades with many errors . I think I can not get over it. {image} {image}

Adding positions as I go against u is

Inserted Video


Sonic
  • #59,323
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:11am Sep 18, 2013 8:11am
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Adding positions as I go against u is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=By7ctqcWxyM Sonic
And we have done it 2 months now... adding against MMs.. the biggest fault ever is to trade against MMs.. if they are buying why we are selling?
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #59,324
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:16am Sep 18, 2013 8:16am
Quoting feinan
{quote} 5 hours to FMOC.. Miracle does happen!
Frankly, I do not believe in miracles .
Newbie trader
  • #59,325
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:31am Sep 18, 2013 8:31am
Quoting fex
{quote} Frankly, I do not believe in miracles .
then why you hold the position till now ?
t.me/LWBRfx Discord.io/LWBR
  • #59,326
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:32am Sep 18, 2013 8:32am
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Adding positions as I go against u is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=By7ctqcWxyM Sonic
I realize that, just trying to save the account for pride. Errors are old and now I try to do things differently.

However, I start to understand that the real secret is not in the system or indicators, the secret is much, much study and a great experience . Fortunately I realized this after my first year, not after the fifth year.

Thanks Master, your opinion is important to me (I filter almost all opinions). I continued reading "The Secret Code of Japanese Candlesticks" .
Newbie trader
  • #59,327
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:35am Sep 18, 2013 8:35am
Quoting feinan
{quote} then why you hold the position till now ?
Sorry, just for pride.
Newbie trader
  • #59,328
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:38am Sep 18, 2013 8:38am
For those in dire straits with drawdown if you want to keep trading and hence continue your learning and you are currently massively over leveraged think about cutting positions either universally or say all of them by 80% and maintaining your remaining capital. That way you live to fight another day and can rebuild without funding an account again but most importantly it means you stay in the game. It may mean you miss out on a miraculous recovery but 80% DD is a failed trading strategy no matter what happens next. The important thing is to take lessons away from this and apply them to trading in the future. For PVSRA that means trading much smaller, smarter entries, etc. At this stage of the learning curve it is key to minimise losses as this is a long road and you will not reach the end of it if you keep blowing accounts.

Hoping you all prosper and that your God smiles upon you and your tading.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #59,329
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:49am Sep 18, 2013 8:49am
Quoting revoli
For those in dire straits with drawdown if you want to keep trading and hence continue your learning and you are currently massively over leveraged think about cutting positions either universally or say all of them by 80% and maintaining your remaining capital. That way you live to fight another day and can rebuild without funding an account again but most importantly it means you stay in the game. It may mean you miss out on a miraculous recovery but 80% DD is a failed trading strategy no matter what happens next. The important thing is to take...
Trading small isn't just trading at 0.01 (once CENT) entries...spacing of entries is
critical - that 0.01 can quickly turn into 0.50 (fifty cents) if you aren't paying close
attention. And to further complicate matters, you might be doing this on additional
pairs at the same time. A true recipe for disaster!

KEEP IT SMALL and you can weather almost any storm.

  • #59,330
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:49am Sep 18, 2013 8:49am
Quoting loeil
{quote} I read your post again. There is one point where I agree with you. It is supply and demand. Because when I look my GU first trades now, I don't see there supply. And that is my mistake. Actually it is not the only place, there are many places where I jumped to the trade but there wasn't any supply. And that is the thing I will intend to change.
Supply & Demand, When you Need it, it ain't going to be there...

Those "Supply & Demand" diehards are not going to agree, but the facts are that MMs place and remove those orders at will. This is also how they fake. S&R is what counts. Prices tend to stop and reverse, or pause at them and go on at each of these levels, but do not count on a previous Supply or Demand (S/R) level being the same the next time the price gets there. A previous supply level might be totally devoid of supply the next time the price gets there.....as has been proven time and again! Those levels are nothing more than S&R levels, and no one can know how price will behave when it next returns to one.
  • #59,331
  • Edited 9:15am Sep 18, 2013 8:52am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting ArtfulDodger
{quote} Trading small isn't just trading at 0.01 (once CENT) entries...spacing of entries is critical - that 0.01 can quickly turn into 0.50 (fifty cents) if you aren't paying close attention. And to further complicate matters, you might be doing this on additional pairs at the same time. A true recipe for disaster! KEEP IT SMALL and you can weather almost any storm.
Whole & Half Levels

Absolutely true. In fact, since whole and half numbers are the keymost SR levels, building around them might be the first way to spread out building entries. Another thing one might do, for example if PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears, is to start building short only at a high that is at least the second or third high in the declining series of lower HLs. If the MMs are bulls, then start building long only at a low that is at least the second or third low in a rising series of higher HLs.

Obviously, it is safest to make reasonably sure a trend is being established before trading that trend utilizing PVSRA. PVSRA is not at fault. It is the manner of the market manipulating MMs to make a trend look like it is starting and then suddenly reverse and proceed longer with the established trend, in order to fake out traders and create liquidity for their own orders for the very trade direction that PVSRA indicated!

The market has thrown everything it has to throw at retailers over the past six months (early summer into fall), and PVSRA has performed remarkably well. Anyone that is focused on trading failures during this "work in-process" PVSRA effort, in order to discredit PVSRA, is being just as deceiptfull as the MMs tend to be. Either that, or they are showing their ignorance of how the markets really work.

-tah
  • #59,332
  • Sep 18, 2013 9:22am Sep 18, 2013 9:22am
Taken profit fr EJ short....
will add scout long for bernanke casino


Sonic


Ser TAH, u got pm..
  • #59,333
  • Sep 18, 2013 9:25am Sep 18, 2013 9:25am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Whole & Half Levels Absolutely true. In fact, since whole and half numbers are the keymost SR levels, building around them might be the first way to spread out building entries. Another thing one might do, for example if PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears, is to start building short only at a high that is at least the second or third high in the declining series of lower HLs. If the MMs are bulls, then start building long only at a low that is at least the second or third low in a rising series of higher HLs. Obviously, it is safest to make...
You have emphasized from the very beginning (and many times in between) that PVSRA is a method of analyzing the current market situation....it is NOT, and has never been intended to be, a TRADING method. You have also
pointed out many times that your use of PVSRA is a "work in progress." And of course, there is that one other thing you have mentioned time and time again - YOU MUST TRADE SMALL!!!!!!

Unfortunately, many people seem to forget those facts, or choose to overlook them. Sometimes it can be a
case of greed or over-excitement (as it was in my case) that creates the problem of potential Margin Calls.
That isn't a reflection on PVSRA, but rather, a glaring example of a trader's mistake(s).

I will say it again.....PVSRA IS NOT A TRADING METHOD....never has been.....never will be.



An addendum: It would be useful if sonicdeejay would add that statement to any mention of PVSRA on
Page #1 so as to eliminate the issue from the beginning!
  • #59,334
  • Edited 9:39am Sep 18, 2013 9:27am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} UJ Short Trade: Added short Scouts #4-5, qualified with PVSRA. As ForexSwag informed above, the MMs are pushing some YEN pairs back up to add more shorts. That is what I see going on here, also. So I decided to add. If they push it up further, enough so, I will add more. {image}
UJ Short Trade: Closed trade for 420 pips gain. I added short Scout #6, fully qualified using PVSRA, subsequent to the last posting on this trade. I have closed the trade here to take reasonable profits, though I had hoped for more, because the FOMC event can have unpredictable consequences in price movements. Closing this trade for profit increases my reserves and gives these Commando Scouts some rest until they might be needed again.
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  • #59,335
  • Sep 18, 2013 9:49am Sep 18, 2013 9:49am
Market Comment Using GJ as Example

The market is continuing to build its positions ahead of FOMC, and this includes all pairs, not just pairs directly involving USD.

Look at the GJ H1 price action in the yellow area. The highest activity of the day is a sell off. The next candle involving less activity is the MMs pushing the price right back up again so as to not lose the advantage of these highs while they continue to short. The third (highest bar) and the fourth candles involve diminished activity, simply indicating it is hard to suck in longs to get the liquidity for shorting. The fifth and six candles are where the MMs must again sink to lower prices in order to get their short orders filled. Following this, the MMs are again pushing up the price to try and sucker in longs so they can start another sell off from higher prices.

This is the manner of utilizing volume with PA to see where the MMs do the most of their trading. Add the factor of S&R, and you now have PVSRA. In this case, note that all this involves candles that strike up thru the whole SR, which is a strong PVSRA indication the MMs are bears on this pair.

-tah
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  • #59,336
  • Sep 18, 2013 9:58am Sep 18, 2013 9:58am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Whole & Half Levels Absolutely true. In fact, since whole and half numbers are the keymost SR levels, building around them might be the first way to spread out building entries. Another thing one might do, for example if PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears, is to start building short only at a high that is at least the second or third high in the declining series of lower HLs. If the MMs are bulls, then start building long only at a low that is at least the second or third low in a rising series of higher HLs. Obviously, it is safest to make...
We have saw high activity at every whole,half,etc S&R areas. So we add the trade every time we see high activity at those areas, because what other choice we have? Because we DON'T KNOW when they start the real run for profit. Like we see on GU chart, price were rising 800-900 pips from the first place when we saw that the MMs are bears. We added shorts every time we saw high activity at some S&R highs, but MMs were buying there. So why we added shorts when the MMs were buying there? Now the price has raised 800-900 pips, how long it raise, we don't know. So what we can do now? We are in a trap now, and we have some choices - close the trades, add more trades, or waiting for reverse. None of them choices are not good anymore, because we have a huge DD for this moment and the price could raise another 800 pips.

Reverse could come today with FOMC but may be not, maybe they use the FOMC news for another push?

Solutions now? We can't add the trades infinitely, our pockets are limited.

I'm just concerned, nothing else. Because every time this "manipulation" gets worse and worse. There has to be something else, what tells us that they have no intend to sell/buy yet. Islander and sonicdeejay read those signs very well. So it's possible to figure out what they are doing there.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #59,337
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:14am Sep 18, 2013 10:14am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Whole & Half Levels Absolutely true. In fact, since whole and half numbers are the keymost SR levels, building around them might be the first way to spread out building entries. Another thing one might do, for example if PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears, is to start building short only at a high that is at least the second or third high in the declining series of lower HLs. If the MMs are bulls, then start building long only at a low that is at least the second or third low in a rising series of higher HLs. Obviously, it is safest to make...
90,000 pips DD is poor trading, simply laughable.
Totally sick and tired of conspiracy theories.
  • #59,338
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:17am Sep 18, 2013 10:17am
Quoting ArtfulDodger
{quote} You have emphasized from the very beginning (and many times in between) that PVSRA is a method of analyzing the current market situation....it is NOT, and has never been intended to be, a TRADING method. You have also pointed out many times that your use of PVSRA is a "work in progress." And of course, there is that one other thing you have mentioned time and time again - YOU MUST TRADE SMALL!!!!!! Unfortunately, many people seem to forget those facts, or choose to overlook them. Sometimes it can be a case of greed or over-excitement (as...
PVSRA is not a trading method but almost everyone here is trading by PVSRA

If PVSRA is only method for analyzing, why we take trade every time when PVSRA indicates that MMs are bears/bulls ? Do we use some "method" for taking trades? I need glasses :nerd:
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #59,339
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:28am Sep 18, 2013 10:28am
Quoting loeil
{quote} We have saw high activity at every whole,half,etc S&R areas. So we add the trade every time we see high activity at those areas, because what other choice we have? Because we DON'T KNOW when they start the real run for profit. Like we see on GU chart, price were rising 800-900 pips from the first place when we saw that the MMs are bears. We added shorts every time we saw high activity at some S&R highs, but MMs were buying there. So why we added shorts when the MMs were buying there? Now the price has raised 800-900 pips, how long it raise,...
Indeed, Limited Pockets

Yes, because we have limited resources we must meter out our building entries. In the most extreme of cases, there are two things that can be done. As was already mentioned earlier here, one thing is to simply close out some components to diminish the draw down. If the current (and possibly increased draw down if prices move further against trades) is not the issue but you do not want to make things more difficult, then simply stop your building and just ride it out.

Personally, I have done the latter. I am riding out GU and GJ which already have sizeable positions. And I have stopped building some time ago, so I have a lot of riding out to do. Nevertheless, I left myself with the capability to still trade elsewhere, which I have done and have therefore added more profits now and then to the account while waiting on other trades.

We plant when the MMs plant, and we Harvest when they harvest. But, be sensible and recognize when it is time to cease planting and just wait for the Harvest. Or, to rip up some seedlings if necessary.
  • #59,340
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:31am Sep 18, 2013 10:31am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Indeed, Limited Pockets Yes, because we have limited resources we must meter out our building entries. In the most extreme of cases, there are two things that can be done. As was already mentioned earlier here, one thing is to simply close out some components to diminish the draw down. If the current (and possibly increased draw down if prices move further against trades) is not the issue but you do not want to make things more difficult, then simply stop your building and just ride it out. Personally, I have done the latter. I am riding...
Yeah, I stopped adding GU and GJ also, DD~30% too big for me. Maybe the price will raise more. Now just waiting and hoping. If GU is raising 200-300 pips more I take into account to close some of them. Let's see.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
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