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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #37,021
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:03am Sep 18, 2013 1:03am
Hello Larry

What happened with the US/JPY

more good luck then good management.

Been holding longs for over a year.

On the US/JPY no stop loss

Got over $18K in longs in that pair

so each trip up I been clipping the ticket

Been waiting for the next leg up,but its taking longer then expected.

Would be more then happy 101 etc

If it climbs to 104 etc even better.

I know people say 110 etc,

Not sure now:nerd:
  • #37,022
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:59am Sep 18, 2013 1:59am
If you're still long since last year, I'd say wait for 107, for what it's worth, maybe even let one part run till 111. Why? We got a strong upwards leg since october last year pointing @107.25. A pullback to 91 or even 84 is not out of the question, but I'm convinced (and would trade it) that we won't see 80 or lower for a couple of years. So you should be safe and could let your patience be rewarded. 111 is a Mid of the whole range 147 - 75, so good chance IMO we will eventually see this. I wouldn't trade this atm, but a pending short there might be a good idea... .

It's difficult atm to get into a new position, a lot of noise, and if you take a look at 1995/94 and 2008/9: price is in the middle of a consolidation zone.

I closed the last part of my long from 77.xx a few months ago, @102 and am quite happy about that. I recon I'll be able to go long another time, maybe have to wait until a decisive break of 104.

But all depends on your timeframe. I'm not into the shorter ones (H1 or lower), but holding a position for years is too longterm to call it 'trading'.
Fail better.
  • #37,023
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:58am Sep 18, 2013 2:58am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Hi elite, got stopped out of my remaining small long sunday night ('real account') and haven't reloaded yet. What can't go up, must come down... Well, I don't know obviously. But I do agree that we will see some action, FOMC today will provide it. If you don't mind my asking, do you trade with a fixed stoploss for your longs? I tend to be overly cautious with getting into a position because I normally don't.
My stops are like yours, when it is obviously going wrong I close the position.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #37,024
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:29am Sep 18, 2013 3:29am
It's against the standard teaching of using 'hard' stops, but I found I trade better with it. Of course it only works if you are not overgeared and also quite disciplined in closing positions when they clearly violate your expectations...

Very good read on that topic: bird watching in lion country, nice quote: 'I will cut my profits, run my losses. You heard me, cut my profits and run my
losses. Sounds crazy, anti all the conventional wisdom.'
Fail better.
  • #37,025
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:37am Sep 18, 2013 3:37am
I reckon that it is safer to stay out this week still. Futures are up and good old Ben and others up in the White House want to take all the shorts to the cleaners. This was part of the goal with QE1,2&3. This week is an important week as options expire for the US and for Japan so I reckon they will do their best to push it up further to make sure all shorts are wiped out. The QE3 easing really depends on how many people out there with money are still left trying to short the markets lol.. The more that are left the further QE3 will go continue and the less that are around will mean that QE3 can be eased. If anyone has paid attention to the market these days you will see that once the market is lifted up there is very little volatility up on top and down below when it drops which means most of the bears/shorts have been wiped out. You see minimal points movement these days compared to back in the old days where we would be up 120-160 points and you would see big moves/swing where now it gets milked up and held up there as if it were held by computer. On days where the market was sold we see it milked right back up (QE money).

I am waiting till next week before I trade again. With QE still around we won't see the good old swing of the old days. 10-15% easing should not make too much of a difference on the market if you ask me as most of the shorts are now broke and most likely do not trade any more.
  • #37,026
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:40am Sep 18, 2013 3:40am
some drop movement in u/j and SL widen, ironically nikkei was still not affected.
trade safe
  • #37,027
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:44am Sep 18, 2013 3:44am
Quoting zz_zhang
some drop movement in u/j and SL widen, ironically nikkei was still not affected.
it actually sa short sell before fed as speculators tend to taking profit..
Bismillah
  • #37,028
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:53am Sep 18, 2013 3:53am
Quoting zz_zhang
some drop movement in u/j and SL widen, ironically nikkei was still not affected.
Ironically Gold/Silver also were not affected. What ever way they move today and tomorrow could open a window for bounce trade on Friday or late Thursday. This is why I opted to stay out now. Was either going to drop down or get milked up. Someone probably saw that most people were long $ so they sold the $. I bet if they saw that most were long YEN then we would have seen the Dollar spike.
  • #37,029
  • Edited 4:35am Sep 18, 2013 4:05am | Edited 4:35am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} it actually sa short sell before fed as speculators tend to taking profit..
HI KRUNFX

does this mean people running into buying the usd early?

edit:-
are peole closing usd positions = causes usd to weaken as they are selling usd ...
hence the drop.... in uj et all usd pairs.

i guess post announcement the usd will strengthen once the tapering is NOT announced...(imo)
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
  • #37,030
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:31am Sep 18, 2013 4:31am
Hi guys,
why yen it's going down so quickly?
What's going on?
  • #37,031
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:51am Sep 18, 2013 4:51am
Quoting afos
{quote} HI KRUNFX does this mean people running into buying the usd early? edit:- are peole closing usd positions = causes usd to weaken as they are selling usd ... hence the drop.... in uj et all usd pairs. i guess post announcement the usd will strengthen once the tapering is NOT announced...(imo)
usually short sell is from speculator that speculate lets say gold..

they speculate gold price down... with their sell the gold at higher price than buy back at lower price..
Bismillah
  • #37,032
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:57am Sep 18, 2013 4:57am
Can UJ going up again to 100 or 101 ?
  • #37,033
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:14am Sep 18, 2013 5:14am
Quoting alam88009
Can UJ going up again to 100 or 101 ?

That's a Million dollar question...but i really do hope so cause I'm long on UJ.
  • #37,034
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:30am Sep 18, 2013 5:30am
Quoting multi888
{quote} That's a Million dollar question...but i really do hope so cause I'm long on UJ.
if taper done.... carry trader will unwinding ther yen carry trade and buy the dollar back as hope for future rate spread profit betwwen FED and BOJ rate...
Bismillah
  • #37,035
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:23am Sep 18, 2013 6:23am
long UJ 98.928
  • #37,036
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:30am Sep 18, 2013 6:30am
Quoting multi888
{quote} That's a Million dollar question...but i really do hope so cause I'm long on UJ.
You have a million on your UJ long?

let's push that puppy up there!
Anything can happen.
  • #37,037
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:48am Sep 18, 2013 7:48am
Quoting ddinnov
{quote} You have a million on your UJ long? let's push that puppy up there!

I wish I could...
  • #37,038
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:54am Sep 18, 2013 7:54am
Quoting ddinnov
{quote} You have a million on your UJ long? let's push that puppy up there!

going down UJ ?
  • #37,039
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:19am Sep 18, 2013 8:19am
fomc will make it difficult to predict direction..
use leverage with caution...
  • #37,040
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:58am Sep 18, 2013 8:58am
Hmm.... If long - I would tread with caution. Ignoring technicals and looking slightly at fundamentals, Japan is once again in a very precarious position with regards to the over-extension of cheap credit on the global market, this in and of itself is not sustainable. Being as paranoid as I am, I would expect near-medium term Yen strengthening as Japan recomposes itself fiscally/monetarily. Me thinks they are drunk in that regard.

Just my 0.005 cents. In other words: Be careful with those longs.
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