DislikedDear Traders I do not normally post articles to forums but reading Steve’s recent predicament of seeing his funds evaporate I feel I must interject with my thoughts. I am CTA – Commodity Trading Advisor, have a Ph.D in Financial Derivatives and have also worked as a Forex Trader in three investment banks in the USA so I feel I know what I am talking about. I have read almost all the posts in the Sonic Forum and my conclusions are that the PVSRA is fundamentally flawed. The technique of averaging once you believe you see a spike in volume close to...Ignored
- #59,204
- Sep 16, 2013 11:47am Sep 16, 2013 11:47am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: turning probability into profit | 1,550 Posts
Hunting High and Low
- #59,206
- Sep 16, 2013 12:10pm Sep 16, 2013 12:10pm
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: the probability trader | 1,110 Posts
Building of new short EU position started!
HTF (240m) analyzing:
Placing of pending orders@m30 below ema89:
HTF (240m) analyzing:
Placing of pending orders@m30 below ema89:
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
Two three dragons (if you know what I mean). I am not happy with my exits. Entries fine but they could have run I suspect. GU M1: {image} UJ M1: {image}
Just pocket what you have earned up until that point and put in another entry
with a new stop if you have reason to believe it might continue further. Always
better to take some of the money off the table, just in case it IS the end of the run.
(.....in my opinion)
- #59,208
- Sep 16, 2013 3:08pm Sep 16, 2013 3:08pm
Hi
Fastare08, Jmflukeiii & "master" Excel-Access - why are you waisting your time here, I don't understand.
Go there where you guys will feel better ....
We shouldn't start building position too soon in my advise no.1., and 2nd let the profit run.
Here are some links where we can find some basic infos;
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#EUR/USD ( Oanda Order Book show us where to expect SR levels and how strong they should be.)- MY FAVOURITE
http://www.investing.com/technical/t...s?period=86400 ( technical analysis- I mostly ignore this but many traders don't! )
http://megatrendfx.com/additional-fo...eter-indicator ( currency strenght meter- If you check TF 4h for example EUR is becoming weaker and Aud stronger, so maybe its time to go long with eur/aud... )
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/candlestick-patterns ( I suggest to those who didn't read the book Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
)
http://www.investing.com/forex-tools/heatmap ( Clasic Currencies Heat Map )
Updating my open trades, no TP & SL ..
Fastare08, Jmflukeiii & "master" Excel-Access - why are you waisting your time here, I don't understand.
Go there where you guys will feel better ....
We shouldn't start building position too soon in my advise no.1., and 2nd let the profit run.
Here are some links where we can find some basic infos;
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#EUR/USD ( Oanda Order Book show us where to expect SR levels and how strong they should be.)- MY FAVOURITE
http://www.investing.com/technical/t...s?period=86400 ( technical analysis- I mostly ignore this but many traders don't! )
http://megatrendfx.com/additional-fo...eter-indicator ( currency strenght meter- If you check TF 4h for example EUR is becoming weaker and Aud stronger, so maybe its time to go long with eur/aud... )
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/candlestick-patterns ( I suggest to those who didn't read the book Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
)http://www.investing.com/forex-tools/heatmap ( Clasic Currencies Heat Map )
Updating my open trades, no TP & SL ..
- #59,209
- Sep 16, 2013 3:20pm Sep 16, 2013 3:20pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
When I was away from computer market gapped on most currencies and some traders lost some money due to their mental stop loss (sorry St3ve), I had closed my GU trade last week and I'm happy with my decision because it went much higher, I lost 8% of my account and I'm still holding GJ hoping it will correlate with UJ and go down (suffering the same DD as GU). Thus I have turned my eyes to study volume more carefully with help of some professional traders and their books and now I'm feeling more comfortable with my trading using stop loss and instead of putting to action one scout at a time, I place six of them instantly ready to action. I don't have all day to trade and now I'm using h4 and daily charts, but I don't say that PVSRA is useless. I believe that some kind of algorithmic trading is showing this kind of movement that PVSRA is indicating and it's because of that trades and big boys positions markets moves one way or another. The best thing TAH taught me is to trade light, that's why I don't want to overkill myself with 2-3% DD in one trade and I'm happy to share my trades with you.
AU short - test of an upthrust ended in another upthrust
EA long - narrowing range and two springs
AU short - test of an upthrust ended in another upthrust
EA long - narrowing range and two springs
Pips in Wonderland
Prof. TAH, Nowhere in your writing do I find an explanation for why we should be able to substitute MT4 tick volume for overall contract volume driven by MMs. Clearly MMs do not use MT4 brokers which are geared for retail traders. How could we possibly say that 20 to 50 MT4 retail trades each with average $1000 can somehow represent 20-50 trades averaging $10-15 million by MMs? Am I missing something here? Because to me this goes to the heart of your PVSRA system. Also, is PVSRA really different from PVA? I don't see that, either (PVA also claims...
atharmian - research has shown that tick volume and actual volume in other, centrally traded markets, are very tightly correlated. Thinking about this, it makes sense really... high volume results in more price movement, which results in more ticks..
Some time ago I wrote an indicator that counted ticks from multiple brokers. I then compared this with the MT4 volume data provided by the brokers... Again, there was a very strong correlation (some brokers seem to filter more ticks than others, but the normalized ticks/volumes were very close).
Now... has anyone investigated using Sonic R with PM CFDs? (indicators would need to be replaced/rewritten of course).
Cheers,
Emptee
- #59,218
- Sep 16, 2013 10:35pm Sep 16, 2013 10:35pm
Emptee,
Thanks but I don't understand your answer.
1. Correlation, unless it is more than 85-90%, would be meaningless ! With trading, you don't want to guess,
especially during volatile times (when such assumed correlations would go down), you want to significantly
improve your risk-reward ratio.
Can you point me to such research? I have never heard of it.
2. Your example indi pertains to potential correlations among MT4 brokers, who only serve the retail market
and hardly represent 5% of total forex volume. Plus, with varying feeds and so many complaints about
broker manipulations with price feeds, I doubt such correlations are useful.
3. Quotes available to MMs are different from those for retail. MMs are an inside market. So while there is a
relationship between an MT4 and an MM price feed, there is a big lag, at least, and in most cases the prices
are quite apart at any given time. It is logical to say more volume means more ticks, but by definition, MMs
are trying to hide their action.
At the end of the day, we need some measure of actual volume (mostly driven by MMs) to use any volume-
driven method. Such volume data is available to retail traders in stock (and options) markets, just not in forex.
Regards,
Athar.
Thanks but I don't understand your answer.
1. Correlation, unless it is more than 85-90%, would be meaningless ! With trading, you don't want to guess,
especially during volatile times (when such assumed correlations would go down), you want to significantly
improve your risk-reward ratio.
Can you point me to such research? I have never heard of it.
2. Your example indi pertains to potential correlations among MT4 brokers, who only serve the retail market
and hardly represent 5% of total forex volume. Plus, with varying feeds and so many complaints about
broker manipulations with price feeds, I doubt such correlations are useful.
3. Quotes available to MMs are different from those for retail. MMs are an inside market. So while there is a
relationship between an MT4 and an MM price feed, there is a big lag, at least, and in most cases the prices
are quite apart at any given time. It is logical to say more volume means more ticks, but by definition, MMs
are trying to hide their action.
At the end of the day, we need some measure of actual volume (mostly driven by MMs) to use any volume-
driven method. Such volume data is available to retail traders in stock (and options) markets, just not in forex.
Regards,
Athar.
{quote} Hi Everyone - first post here, I hope I can contribute to this system going forward
- #59,220
- Sep 16, 2013 11:40pm Sep 16, 2013 11:40pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
