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Sonic R. System

  • #59,181
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:21am Sep 16, 2013 8:21am
Quoting revoli
Two three dragons (if you know what I mean). I am not happy with my exits. Entries fine but they could have run I suspect. GU M1:
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UJ M1: {image}
My point of view about GU:
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About entry by UY I don't like this setup at all... Just my point view.
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #59,182
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:42am Sep 16, 2013 8:42am
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} My point of view about GU: {image} About entry by UY I don't like this setup at all... Just my point view. {image}

Yes I was looking at this. On GU there was 30 pips on offer on that move. I only bagged 13.5. Spread of 1.1 so I missed half the move. How to improve:
1. The entry was late. There were higher highs and higher lows that gave the move away just before NYO. I waited too long.
2. I was hoping for a more vigorous move and a shove up to MR3 or even 1.60. Ambitious but I watched for any sign of failure early. Hitting 1.5950 there was a hefty pause on big volume indicating we were not going much further but the previous high and DR2 levels were still within reach. So what to do. I should have a primary or stretch target and then a fall back target in case of a weak move. Watching and thinking on the fly is beyond me, I need to plan better.

Thanks for comments, it all helps with this learning curve.
I do not like the action now and will probably quit for the day counting myself fortunate to come out ahead on a fairly dull day.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #59,183
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:51am Sep 16, 2013 8:51am
EJ:

Continues very tight ranging. Ranging like this is indicative of position building. For up, or down next? Take your pick, but do note that the day began with a whipsaw, first down (suck in shorts) then up (stop them out for liquidity for MM's shorts). And ever since then, the MMs have had the price more above the whole SR than below it, including this current activity. In fact, the volume dropped off when the price went below the whole SR earlier today.

Now, there is another PA wave for a Classic short. Will it happen? We just have to wait and see what, if anything, happens with what is left of the LS today.
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  • #59,184
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:55am Sep 16, 2013 8:55am

Dear Traders


I do not normally post articles to forums but reading Steve’s recent predicament of seeing his funds evaporate I feel I must interject with my thoughts.



I am CTA – Commodity Trading Advisor, have a Ph.D in Financial Derivatives and have also worked as a Forex Trader in three investment banks in the USA so I feel I know what I am talking about.



I have read almost all the posts in the Sonic Forum and my conclusions are that the PVSRA is fundamentally flawed. The technique of averaging once you believe you see a spike in volume close to a whole number means you should start building positions is crazy because prices might reverse. Some individuals are basing judgement calls on 1 minute chart!



Firstly, the volume that you see from your broker is the volume only from that broker and not every trade that has been placed world-wide, this is not the same as Open Interest in Futures Trading that are published at the end of the trading day for the previous day and proper volume analysis can be done.



Steve’s point is that he started building positions in GBPJPY at 149 level and this is now trading roughly at the 158 level with possibly a 160 level in sight given that the GBP is in an uptrend. It is clear that the majority of people on the Sonic forum is losing money using this approach or they have been many cases where individuals have been holding onto positions for two or more months praying to God to make the position reverse. I can assure you the few that have been lucky using this approach will not survive in the long run.



When I was trading using the Financial Institutions (FI) money we did not use the technique as described by Tah. We would ride the Trends and pay particular attention to key support and resistance levels. The FI do have larger pockets than the retail traders, but anyone adding to losing positions would have their positions eventually closed by the Senior Traders.



I also find Tah’s approach rather amusing in that he dislikes any form of criticisms, would place individuals on Ignore if they disagreed with him and would deny that the current PVSRA has any flaws.



In Tah’s weekly analysis, he indicates he is holding on to a EUR JPY position that is down 17,170 pips. Where is the money management and why was this position not closed out many months ago. Every professional trader will tell you to let your profits run and cut your losses as soon as things are turning against you. My only conclusion is that Tah must have deep pockets and refuses to accept mistakes or any losses. Even great traders admit they are wrong on certain trades - close it out and move on.



Many of you are trading with a small account, your funds are probably tied to losing trades and are also paying daily SWAP charges. The current PVSRA will not allow you to one day become professional traders unless you already have a large capital outlay to start off with.



Blaming the Market Makers every time the prices gaps up or disobeys your laws of physics is nonsensical. If you treat Forex Trading like riding the same bus as the Forex Traders but getting off a few stops before them, you will make money every day and also in the long run. To go against the trend because you expect prices to reverse but you do not know when or is relying on daily Forex data is suicidal. In a 24 hour period the EURUSD change prices 225,000 times. Just riding the trend in a small window of that time period will gain you pips.



I really do not care if Tah puts me on ignore as it is not my intention to contribute regularly on this Forum. I decided to write this to warn individuals to be very careful with their hard earned trading funds and please do not rely solely on PVSRA otherwise your career as a Forex Trader will be short lived



Good luck with your trades and the future!

  • #59,185
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:57am Sep 16, 2013 8:57am
Quoting revoli
{quote} Yes I was looking at this. On GU there was 30 pips on offer on that move. I only bagged 13.5. Spread of 1.1 so I missed half the move. How to improve: 1. The entry was late. There were higher highs and higher lows that gave the move away just before NYO. I waited too long. 2. I was hoping for a more vigorous move and a shove up to MR3 or even 1.60. Ambitious but I watched for any sign of failure early. Hitting 1.5950 there was a hefty pause on big volume indicating we were not going much further but the previous high and DR2 levels were...
1-I think there was no possibility to make 30 pips from GU by this movement. I suppose 20-22 could be ideal trade.
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2-By this method we don't have to be very greedy, we are looking not for pips but for money. By my calculations 25 pips every day will make me millionare very soon
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #59,186
  • Sep 16, 2013 9:00am Sep 16, 2013 9:00am
NZD-JPY, GBP-JPY Massive accumulation phase! 30 min chart
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Creditors have better memories than debtors.
  • #59,187
  • Edited 9:25am Sep 16, 2013 9:12am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting Excel-Access
Dear Traders I do not normally post articles to forums but reading Steve’s recent predicament of seeing his funds evaporate I feel I must interject with my thoughts. I am CTA – Commodity Trading Advisor, have a Ph.D in Financial Derivatives and have also worked as a Forex Trader in three investment banks in the USA so I feel I know what I am talking about. I have read almost all the posts in the Sonic Forum and my conclusions are that the PVSRA is fundamentally flawed. The technique of averaging once you believe you see a spike in volume close to...
Yeah, sure you are a professional. In this post you didn't even recognize pivots!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post6294699

And after seven months you were still looking for templates and indicators?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post6800566

As far as having a Phd in financial derivatives, maybe you are one of the numbskulls that sold bogus RE backed derivatives to better yourself thru commissions while screwing the purchasers! And look where that has led to! Or, maybe you didn't. But then were you smart enough to speak out against them?

I will put on IGNORE anyone that wastes my time. Someone who does not understand PVSRA and yet thinks themselves so smart as to criticize it is a waste of my time. The trader that suffered loss was honest in reasoning why that happened. And yes, trading .05 instead of .01 was against all advice here. So, what does the person I put on IGNORE do? He skirted the failing of the trader and bad mouthed PVSRA! That person is not worth my time.

And, frankly, neither are you. IGNORE. Bye.
  • #59,188
  • Sep 16, 2013 9:27am Sep 16, 2013 9:27am
Dearest Tah

Thank you for your prompt reply.

As I have indicated above, whenever anyone disagrees with you, resorting to slander and calling individuals numbskulls is your speciality.

You also automatically assume that I was improving my lifestyle through selling commissions and have little understanding of what a derivative is.

It is pointless debating with you as you have this tendency to think you are superior to all. I guess that is why some individuals address you as Professor Tah so that your ego may be inflated even further

Good luck in your trading and future developments.
  • #59,189
  • Edited 9:57am Sep 16, 2013 9:38am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting ForexSwag
NZD-JPY, GBP-JPY Massive accumulation phase! 30 min chart {image} {image}
Massive accumulation?

The real "tell" from whipsaws is often not which direction they start off in, or how many times the MMs whipsaw the price up and down, but rather where they end up leaving the price. If the MMs are bulls, it is to their advantage to leave the price near lows, for ongoing addition of longs. If the MMs are bears, it is to their advantage to leave the price near highs, for ongoing addition of shorts.

Look at GJ. They left the price high. And high volumes are associated with runs down off the highs today. That is bearish. Yes, there is a lot of tight ranging in the half SR area, too tight to discern (at least on M15) bulls vs bears. However, note the three declining highs on the chart and the volumes associated with runs down off each of them. You do not see that with runs up off of lows.

Friday the MMs hiked the price above this half SR area. For the most part the MMs have since kept the price above it. Now, both the Trend and the Dragon appear to be rolling over. Too early to tell, but there are more indications of bears than of bulls. Still, all one can do is wait and see what happens, because ranging (for prolonged position building) can go on longer.
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  • #59,190
  • Sep 16, 2013 9:47am Sep 16, 2013 9:47am
thanks sonic and tah!
  • #59,191
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:08am Sep 16, 2013 10:08am
UJ:

H1 has a H&S that is in play. PA shows the up/down price manipulation typical of MMs building positions. This is in the area of previous support. That support (Demand) could suddenly disappear if the MMs yank their buy orders that is propping this up for the time being. If the MMs are propping this up to suck in longs while they take the short side, then I suspect that "Demand" will suddenly disappear when the MMs are ready for that to happen. I have lowered my TP.
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  • #59,192
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:11am Sep 16, 2013 10:11am
  •  St3ve
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Recovering from losses ... | 77 Posts
Quoting traderathome
The trader that suffered loss was honest in reasoning why that happened. And yes, trading .05 instead of .01 was against all advice here. So, what does the person I put on IGNORE do? He skirted the failing of the trader and bad mouthed PVSRA! That person is not worth my time. And, frankly, neither are you. IGNORE. Bye.
The trader you are referrering to is obvisiously me. I have no idea where you read that I used .05 lots. I clearly said that I was using 0.01.
Furthermore, I never ever said that I blame PVSRA for those losses. I even wrote that 2 times in my post.

After spending so many hours helping you to improve your indicators, you call me "not worth your time" is making me really sad ...

pissed off - need a break now.
  • #59,193
  • Edited 10:44am Sep 16, 2013 10:17am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting St3ve
{quote} The trader you are referrering to is obvisiously me. I have no idea where you read that I used .05 lots. I clearly said that I was using 0.01. Furthermore, I never ever said that I blame PVSRA for those losses. I even wrote that 2 times in my post. After spending so many hours helping you to improve your indicators, you call me "not worth your time" is making me really sad ... pissed off - need a break now.
St3ve,

I was not referring to you. I was referring to faststare08, who I since put on IGNORE for being one of those quick to try and nail the coffin shut on anything good, as soon as someone gets into difficulty with whatever that good thing might be.

You are the "honest trader" I referred to. But, yes, I guess I misread regarding .05 vs .01 sizes. I apologize.

And I do feel for you over this situation. Believe me, I do. You are a valued Sonic R. contributor and I also consider you a personal friend. My prayers will include that you are able to recover, and that something good....something more than just recovery.....will also happen for you as a blessing. I regret it if the phrasing of anything I said contributed to this misunderstanding. I wish only the best for you, St3ve.

-tah
  • #59,194
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:19am Sep 16, 2013 10:19am
Quoting St3ve
{quote} The trader you are referrering to is obvisiously me. I have no idea where you read that I used .05 lots. I clearly said that I was using 0.01. Furthermore, I never ever said that I blame PVSRA for those losses. I even wrote that 2 times in my post. After spending so many hours helping you to improve your indicators, you call me "not worth your time" is making me really sad ... pissed off - need a break now.
Why did you close your trades instead of waiting?
Creditors have better memories than debtors.
  • #59,195
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:30am Sep 16, 2013 10:30am
Quoting St3ve
{quote} The trader you are referrering to is obvisiously me. I have no idea where you read that I used .05 lots. I clearly said that I was using 0.01. Furthermore, I never ever said that I blame PVSRA for those losses. I even wrote that 2 times in my post. After spending so many hours helping you to improve your indicators, you call me "not worth your time" is making me really sad ... pissed off - need a break now.
haha. prof TAH got irate again in 1 day? lol.
you too genius to lecture your analysis that even the newbie can't profit with your trading system.
from simple prof turned to trading guru huh? beware of prof TAH. You didn't accept any bad statement because you are gaining with his system. how about the newbie? keep losing? I thought your thread motto was sharing is caring.
thank you for your time to explain the unclear theory of yours.
  • #59,196
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:48am Sep 16, 2013 10:48am
  •  St3ve
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Recovering from losses ... | 77 Posts
@TAH:
faststare08 wasn't mentioned in Excel-Access's post a single time. So I really thought you were considering setting me on ignore. I agree with you that faststare08 is not worth our time - I have him also on ignore since his second post :-)
Thanks for those nice words in your latest post - I really appreciate that!


Quoting ForexSwag
{quote} Why did you close your trades instead of waiting?
I already explained my reasons, but to sum it up again:
My DD grew bigger and bigger over time and reached a point at which I wasn't willing to accept any further growth. Too bad, this already happened last friday. I even noticed mental stress caused by such a big floating loss - all weekend long I thought about what to do next.
After the gap-up today it was clear that there was no other choice for me than to close my trades and accept the losses.

I learned a lot during trading based on PVSR analysis. But I also learned that position building doesn't fit me - others are doing well with it, but it just isn't the right strategy for me.

I had to pay a lot for this lesson, but with my newly-gained knowledge about market behaviour and trading in general I'm convinced that I will recover my losses .. even if it takes me several years. Forex isn't the right place to "get rich fast" ... I will try to do it slow and steadily!
  • #59,197
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:54am Sep 16, 2013 10:54am
Quoting St3ve
@TAH: faststare08 wasn't mentioned in Excel-Access's post a single time. So I really thought you were considering setting me on ignore. I agree with you that faststare08 is not worth our time - I have him also on ignore since his second post :-) Thanks for those nice words in your latest post - I really appreciate that! {quote} I already explained my reasons, but to sum it up again: My DD grew bigger and bigger over time and reached a point at which I wasn't willing to accept any further growth. Too bad, this already happened last friday. I even...
Keep your head up, you'll get those pips back+ more!
Creditors have better memories than debtors.
  • #59,198
  • Sep 16, 2013 11:05am Sep 16, 2013 11:05am
Quoting ForexSwag
{quote} Why did you close your trades instead of waiting?

Because he did cut his losses. That isn't a bad thing. Waiting for potential increasing losses?

Today in the morning I was in the same situation, huge up gap, have 2 sell trades GU and EU open, DD about 2,200 USD, and was sitting in front of my machine, my finger was above the close trade button. I didn't close and am still waiting now several month and the DD increases steadily. Waiting and hoping for the reverse, crazy, isn't it? More and more traders here are suffering from losses, something is wrong how we are doing.

@St3ve
sorry, mate!
  • #59,199
  • Sep 16, 2013 11:11am Sep 16, 2013 11:11am
Quoting St3ve
This is where my PVSRA-trip ends After a successful first attempt at trading based on PVSRA, I opened a new account with serious funding (at least for me it was "serious"). I started with 10k in June 2013 and managed to stadily increase my equity - while also my floating DD steadily increased. Today, after three months of trading - watching my account every few minutes / hours (even when on holiday abroad), it had a balance of to 17k ... not taken into account the floating DD. With 10k account balance and trading only 0.1$/pip I thought it would...
1- I don't know when you opened your trade, but at 149.xx I assume you sold in late july or early august. So, you sold the GY after about a 450pip period of SELLING lasting about 1-2 weeks. This put price near the low end of its 2013 range. In other words, you sold low.

2- With PVSRA we DEFINITELY need to be able to handle a 450 pip DD. If your account balance is swinging wildly from +70% to -40% in a matter of weeks I can tell you without asking that you are trading too heavily.

3- It did retrace, from 154.5 back to 150.5. With position building this would have been a profitable trade at one point, though your profit/DD would not have been great. My position is that we should at least reduce our position size after these periods of selling, as higher demand increases the risk against our short trades.

My advice: learn from your mistakes!
  • #59,200
  • Sep 16, 2013 11:22am Sep 16, 2013 11:22am
I'm still beta testing some more stuff with the scouts to make it easier for less drawdowns, I just wish US clients could hedge.
Once i figure everything out i will release it for everyone to try out!
Creditors have better memories than debtors.
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