Analyzing Dow, Dax, FTSE, etc

FTSE strength has stalled near term, with the market unable as yet to capitalise on its break above its downtrend and price gap resistance at 6568/75. A setback should be allowed for, with support pegged at 6560 initially, below which would warn of a move back to price and 38.2% retracement support at 6506. We would Trading Lookfor this latter level to then ideally hold though for a move above 6606 to target 6635 initially, then back to the 6670 high of August. Whilst we would expect this latter level to cap near term, a break can open the door to a move back to the 6815 high of May. Holding a long. Add on weakness to 6520, stop below 6490. Take profit at 6670. Below 6490 can see a deeper retracement lower to 6465/60. Retry a long here, stop below 6445.

FTSE extends its consolidation following its break above downtrend and price gap resistance at 6568/75, with the market still stuck beneath around its 6606 recent high. While support at 6560/57 holds though the immediate risk can stay higher for now for a move above 6603 in due course to target 6635 initially, then back to the 6670 high of August. Whilst we would expect this latter level to cap near term, a break can open the door to a move back to the 6815 high of May. Below 6560/57 would warn of a move back to price and 38.2% retracement support at 6506, but with fresh buyers expected here. Holding a long. Add on weakness to 6520, stop below 6490. Take profit at 6670.
Below 6490 can see a deeper retracement lower to 6465/60. Retry a long here, stop below 6445.

Another muted session to end the week for the S&P 500, and while support at 1674/72 holds, the immediate risk can stay to the topside for strength back to 1686/87, ahead of 1692/94 and then the 1699 contract high. Although this latter level should be allowed to hold at first, the broader risk is seen staying higher for an eventual retest of the 1705 continuation high. Below 1674/72 can see a pullback to 1664/60, potentially as far as 1653/52. The VIX has broken support at 14/13.90, and we Trading Look for the decline to extend to 13.10.
Holding a long. Add on weakness to 1664/60, stop below 1658. Take profit at 1705/10. Below 1658 should see a deeper setback to 1652/50. Retry a long here, stop below 1645.

Nasdaq has held key breakout support at 3159/49 and the expected break above 3190 has been seen and we stay bullish for 3228 initially, and eventually our 3320/25 main objective, the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2000/2002 bear market. We would Trading Look for better selling to show here. Near-term support shows at 3193, ahead of 3159/49. Below 3129 can see a deeper retreat back to 3095. Holding a long. Add on weakness to 3150, stop below 3129. Reverse longs to a short on strength to 3320/25, stop above 3345.

Below 3129 should see weakness extend back to 3110/00. Retry a long here, stop below 3090.

The FTSE has extended its sell-off, undercutting trendline support from the June low at 6543. This leaves the immediate risks to support next at the 63-day average at 6491/90. We would TLook for better support here and an attempt to turn higher again. The 6502 level remains key and its removal is needed for a top for 6422. Resistance shows first at 6542, then 6571/72. Extension above here would set a base to test 6606/08 and through here to retest the key 6667/70 hurdle.
Long at 6539, stop below 6502 for 6625. Below 6502 looks to 6490, then 6460.

The Nasdaq has extended its initial rejection from channel resistance now at 3249/50. Better support is expected at the 13-day average now at 3182, and we look for a rally from here to retest the flagged channel hurdle. Above here would see the uptrend extend to test our 3320/25 main objective – the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2000/2002 bear market. We Trading Look for better selling to show here. A direct break can target 3400 next. Below of 3182 is needed for deeper sell-off to 3159/49, but removal of 3148 is required for a top. Holding a long. Add on weakness to 3182, stop/reverse below 3145.
Reverse longs to a short on strength to 3320/25, stop above 3345. Below 3145 should see weakness extend back to 3110/00, where we would cover shorts.

The S&P remains on the back foot and has extended weakness to test the 13-day average at 1689/83. We Trading Look for buying here, and only beneath it would see a small top for 1674 ahead of the 63-day average at 1665, which we would look to hold. Above 1702 aims at 1707, but through 1718 is needed to retest the 1727 high. Extension through here would see fresh highs and would then target 1745/46, then 1773/77. The VIX must extend the early week gap through 14.68 to set a base to test 15.16 next.
Flat, try a new long at 1695, stop below 1683 for 1725. Below 1683 would see deeper turn lower to 1674, then 1665. Buy here with a stop below 1651.

The S&P remains on the back foot and has reverted to partially refill the bull gap now spanning down to 1682 (cash 1692/88). We Trading Look for attempt to try and hold here. Beneath it is needed for a deeper setback to price and 63-day average support at 1674/69, which we would look to provide a floor for a turn higher again. Only beneath 1669 would expose trendline support from November 2012 at 1655/51. Resistance moves to 1701, but back up through 1707 would set a base for a test of the 1719 ahead of the 1727 high. The VIX remains capped beneath the 14.68 hurdle. Only above would allow a move higher in the broader range to 15.16 next.
Long at 1695, stop below 1682 for 1725. Below 1682 would see deeper turn lower to 1675/74, then 1669. Buy here with a stop below 1651.

The Nasdaq has extended its setback from the channel highs at 3250/53 and is reverting to the 13-day average at 3190. We Trading Look for an effort to hold here and beneath is needed for a deeper setback to 3168 ahead of more solid price support at 3159/48. A break here and follow through 3148 is required for a top. Resistance shows first at 3220, but through 3232/38 is needed to retest the recent peak at 3243. The top of the channel at 3250/53 remains key and above it is needed to see the trend turn higher again for our 3320/25 main objective – the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2000/2002 bear market. We look for better selling to show here. A direct break can target 3400 next.
Holding a long. Add on weakness to 3182, stop/reverse below 3145. Reverse longs to a short on strength to 3320/25, stop above 3345. Below 3145 should see weakness extend back to 3110/00, where we would cover shorts.

The FTSE remains under pressure and has prodded below the 63-day average at 6508 and on through a more important chart level at 6502. Although the market was unable to hold beneath here, the prod below it leaves downside risks in place. Should we see follow through here and 6497, this would Trading Look lower in the broader range to 6460 ahead of the 6422 price low. Resistance moves to 6331/32, but above 6562/63 is needed to ease downside pressure and above 6571/72 for a base for 6631.
Flat, buy at 6505, stop/reverse below 6482 for 6550. Beneath 6482 aims at 6460, then 6422. Cover shorts and reverse to a long here with a stop below 6363.

The FTSE ended last week, reversing sharply lower and forming a bearish “engulfing” day. This keeps the immediate bias lower in the broader range to the 6422 price low next. We would expect a bounce here, but beneath would look to price support and the 38.2% retracement of the June/September rally at 6397/85. With the 200-day average just below at 6366, we would Trading Look for a rebound here. Resistance moves to 6521, then 6548/55, but above 6571/72 is needed to ease downside risks.

Covered a long at 6550. Sell at 6520, stop above 6555 for 6400. Above 6555 aims at 6562, but through 6571/72 is needed for a base.

The Nasdaq has settled into a high level range after finding support from the rising 13-day average at 3198. The bounce from here leaves the immediate focus higher on 3243, above which would retest the channel highs at 3258. Extension through here is needed to get the uptrend back on track for our 3320/25 main objective – the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2000/2002 bear market. We Trading Look for better selling to show here. A direct break can target 3400 next. Removal of 3198/95 would see a small top for 3182 and beneath here for 3159/48.

Holding a long, stop/reverse below 3145. Reverse longs to a short on strength to 3320/25, stop above 3345. Below 3145 should see weakness extend back to 3110/00, where we would cover shorts.

The S&P has extended its slide and has now refilled former gap support below 1683. This leaves the immediate focus on support showing next at 1675/70 – the 63-day average – where we would Trading Look for buying again to attempt to show. Beneath here is needed for a test of trendline support from the November 2012 at 1658/51. Only removal of the latter would suggest a more protracted correction is underway. Resistance moves to 1697, but above 1701 needed for a base and turn higher to 1707. Above the latter is needed to turn the trend higher again for 1719. The VIX has surged up through 14.68/71, opening up a move higher in the broader sideways range to 16.18, above which would aim at the August peak at 17.81, which we would look to cap.

Flat, buy at 1675/70, stop below 1658 for 1725. Below 1658 would aim at 1651 and through here for 1639.

The Nikkei’s sell-off found buying at the rising 13-day average at 14515 and rallied back to the recent recovery highs. This leaves the focus higher on resistance at 14816/820. Above here would open up a move to the 14953 peak. Extension through here would look on to the 78.6% retracement of the May/June decline at 15185. Bigger picture, we would look for an eventual move back to the 15880/945 highs. Beneath 14515 aims at 14410. Below here would see a small top for 14235/30, and through it is required for a more extended correction.

Holding a long. Add on weakness to 14421, stop below 13825. Take profit at 14950/55. Below 13835/25 should see weakness extend back to 13615/10. Retry a long here, stop below 13550.

Hello everyone,

I saw this thread about indexes and I passed by to share my view on S&P 500. I am monitoring this index to short it. I know is crazy to speak about shorting a stock index in the current macroeconomic environment with the taper off the table but in my opinion is just a matter of time until when S&P will drop...taper or no taper. I've made a long analyze and don't want to bore anyone here but if someone is interested you can see my analyze as my charts also on my blog: http://www.forex-galaxy.com/2013/10/...-in-s-500.html

Anyone else sharing my view?

I am still net long stocks while being hedged. I am long commodity stocks while purchasing put options on the SPY and VIX for protection. The weak hands are beginning to become in control and hence with them comes volatility because the strong hands are watching from the sidelines.

This market can remain over-valued and irrational for a while, you may be lonely with your short consensus just like me but one thing is certain; nothing moves in one direction forever.

Buffett: "The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs."

I think any word is useless. I leave you to draw the conclusions by yourself:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The index has formed a major divergence with its MACD index. The daily MACD has now put in five consecutive lower highs while price continues to put in marginally higher highs. This rare quintuple divergence shows that the buying momentum is not confirming the recent highs and foreshadows a possible retracement if prices break below bullish trend line support around 1825. The recent divergence is also confirmed by other widely-followed technical oscillators like RSI and Slow Stochastics. The next levels of support under the bullish trend line are near 1800 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and 1770 (38.2% Fib retracement).

On the other hand, a breakout above the 1850 barrier in the next week (especially if confirmed by a corresponding breakout in the MACD) would resume the longer-term uptrend. After digesting its gains in the recent consolidation range for nearly a month, a strong continuation higher may be seen, with bulls initially looking toward 1885 (the measured move target after the recent box pattern) and 1900 (key psychological resistance). All Eyes on 1850.

I've found some charts on the Dow etc here:

http://www.statista.com/topics/1637/...trial-average/

Where are you guys getting these feeds?