How far down do you think the Pound is going? -Daily Chart | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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How far down do you think the Pound is going? -Daily Chart

  • #21
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:00am Sep 13, 2013 5:00am
Quoting EaglePip
{quote} since it already above its more likely to head towards upper range band. {image}
More explanation for this point would be useful
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  • #22
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:04am Sep 13, 2013 5:04am
Quoting jen101
By the way, divergences mean nothing going against the trend.
I thought a divergence + good S/R level can indicate a trend reversal. If you could explain this point more it'd be awesome
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  • #23
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:08am Sep 13, 2013 5:08am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} I thought a divergence + good S/R level can indicate a trend reversal. If you could explain this point more it'd be awesome
It can do, but more likely in a strong trend, it just means a period of consolidation. Divergences are only reliable when in the direction of the trend. Even then a divergence can exist for a long time before any correction.
  • #24
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:15am Sep 13, 2013 5:15am
Quoting jen101
{quote} It can do, but more likely in a strong trend, it just means a period of consolidation. Divergences are only reliable when in the direction of the trend. Even then a divergence can exist for a long time before any correction.
Aha I see .... anyway I'm always looking for the 4h close and any close above the next resistance @ 1.5840 would suggest going up and I'll be out.
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  • #25
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:17am Sep 13, 2013 5:17am
You will go broke trading divergences.
  • #26
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:21am Sep 13, 2013 5:21am
Quoting Ttop
You will go broke trading divergences.
Hahaha I can't go broke man since this is a demo account and it's my first month in the market so I didn't chose what type of analysis I'll follow yet
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  • #27
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:01am Sep 13, 2013 6:01am
Why are you making it difficult for yourself by trying to find trend reversals? A major trend isn't going to suddenly do a u-turn; there will likely to be a period where the bulls and bears are battling it out, resulting in a choppy market, before a reversal and a new trend forms. It would be a lot easier to identify a trend on a higher TF, then look on a lower TF for confirmation that the trend is still going and look for entry opportunities.
  • #28
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:07am Sep 13, 2013 6:07am
Quoting jen101
Why are you making it difficult for yourself by trying to find trend reversals? A major trend isn't going to suddenly do a u-turn; there will likely to be a period where the bulls and bears are battling it out, resulting in a choppy market, before a reversal and a new trend forms. It would be a lot easier to identify a trend on a higher TF, then look on a lower TF for confirmation that the trend is still going and look for entry opportunities.
Looking for reversals because I wanna get used to a system that matches with my life style which is unfortunately very busy. So, in the limited time I've I wanna set a trade with big targets because I won't be on the screen for a time more than like 8 hours a week. And buddy that's what I'm already doing ( identifying chances on higher frames and confirm using the lower frames!
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  • #29
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:12am Sep 13, 2013 6:12am
Why not simply trade the higher TF's then; daily, weekly, monthly even? I think trying to pick tops and bottoms is a recipe for disaster.
  • #30
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:17am Sep 13, 2013 6:17am
Quoting jen101
Why not simply trade the higher TF's then; daily, weekly, monthly even? I think trying to pick tops and bottoms is a recipe for disaster.
I've been looking only on the daily since I opened the account. In fact my GbpJpy trade and this trade on the GbpUsd are both taken on the daily chart. But weekly? I don't think it will be suitable for my account size. The very long term trades like this could be better used by the hedge funds accounts running for the banks and private equity incorporations I guess.
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  • #31
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:30am Sep 13, 2013 6:30am
Simply trade smaller lot sizes to maintain the same risk.
  • #32
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:41am Sep 13, 2013 6:41am
Quoting jen101
Simply trade smaller lot sizes to maintain the same risk.
Let me put this simpler .... If you have rented a supermarket in your neighbourhood you'd expect to make around 5% net profit per month taking in consideration that you just do the same thing again and again without taking any risks. Well, if I opened an account with say 10,000 $ and achieved a 500 pips per month with the pip worth a dollar then I would make 500 $ by the end of the month which represents the same 5% I'd made easily managing the supermarket without any mental stress that would affect my day job. So, I've to aim for something worth. I think 10-15% is worthy and realistic to aim for. And in such case the pip shall be worth 2-3 $. I hope I've made myself clear
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  • #33
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:46am Sep 13, 2013 6:46am
The pound has been reacting to positive news and ignoring negative news
unlike the Euro, which has been shrugging off positive news and dipping on negative news
GB economy is recovering faster than others, BOE is growing more hawkish with every meeting
FTSE has been stronger than EuroStoxx for some time, it has rallied on every SPX volatility spike
Increases in COT short positioning have been unable to budge the pound, but decreases have sent it flying
Yet trader positioning is still net short
and it's trending upwards but well below last years highs

You really wanna sell GBP in this environment? Good luck with that
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #34
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:56am Sep 13, 2013 6:56am
Quoting numbnuts
The pound has been reacting to positive news and ignoring negative news unlike the Euro, which has been shrugging off positive news and dipping on negative news GB economy is recovering faster than others, BOE is growing more hawkish with every meeting FTSE has been stronger than EuroStoxx for some time, it has rallied on every SPX volatility spike Increases in COT short positioning have been unable to budge the pound, but decreases have sent it flying Yet trader positioning is still net short and it's trending upwards but well below last years...
Oh that's a lot of information for me to absorb I'm yet to understand fundamentals right now I'm watching Steve Nison tech analysis videos + reading the babypips school lessons ... what would you suggest as an effective source to study the fundamentals from feel free to suggest a thousand pages book I'm used to study that amount at school anyway
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  • #35
  • Edited 11:02am Sep 13, 2013 7:19am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} Oh that's a lot of information for me to absorb I'm yet to understand fundamentals right now I'm watching Steve Nison tech analysis videos + reading the babypips school lessons ... what would you suggest as an effective source to study the fundamentals from feel free to suggest a thousand pages book I'm used to study that amount at school anyway
Have you heard of Chris Lori and Ashraf Laidi? I think BabyPips is too basic for your intellect. Obviously I can't promote their websites or materials but they are frequently searched and quite well regarded in area of fundamentals (for technical trading).
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  • #36
  • Sep 13, 2013 7:19am Sep 13, 2013 7:19am
You could have a look at Niall Fuller's http://www.learntotradethemarket.com and Chris Capre's site http://2ndskiesforex.com Great site's on PA trading. Also trading the news, you could have a look at this http://www.currencynewstrading.com
  • #37
  • Sep 13, 2013 7:23am Sep 13, 2013 7:23am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Have you heard of Chris Lori and Ashraf Laidi? I think BabyPips is too basic for your intellect. Obviously I can't promote their websites or materials but they are frequently searched and quite well regarded. {file} {file}
No man never heard of them. But hey, a month ago I didn't know anything about the market except that it's a place to sell and buy currencies in ... I'll definitely do an extensive research about those guys and many many thanks for help
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  • #38
  • Sep 13, 2013 7:24am Sep 13, 2013 7:24am
Quoting jen101
You could have a look at Niall Fuller's http://www.learntotradethemarket.com and Chris Capre's site http://2ndskiesforex.com Great site's on PA trading. Also trading the news, you could have a look at this http://www.currencynewstrading.com
Thank you Jen
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  • #39
  • Sep 13, 2013 7:29am Sep 13, 2013 7:29am
You're welcome. Good luck.
  • #40
  • Sep 13, 2013 8:03am Sep 13, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
This Doji candlestick forming on the Daily chart is supporting the theory. {image}
EZZ it was NOT a doji.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
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