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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #69,721
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:13am Sep 12, 2013 7:13am
Okay I am back and I have caught up with all the posts I missed here and in "The Club!"
Now what?
Maybe a classic Italian song sung by Pavarotti would be in order... "O Sole Mio"
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,722
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:32am Sep 12, 2013 7:32am
US Initial jobless claims drops below 300K at 292K
First time below 300k since 2006
Obviously this has significant ramifications. Taper is on.

ADD: Oh great. Now a BLS official is saying that the drop in claims is related to faulty reporting by some states. Obviously this BLS official is short the USD LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,723
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:37am Sep 12, 2013 7:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
US Initial jobless claims drops below 300K at 292K First time below 300k since 2006 Obviously this has significant ramifications. Taper is on. ADD: Oh great. Now a BLS official is saying that the drop in claims is related to faulty reporting by some states. Obviously this BLS official is short the USD LOL

... you mean B(l)S...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,724
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:38am Sep 12, 2013 7:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
US Initial jobless claims drops below 300K at 292K First time below 300k since 2006 Obviously this has significant ramifications. Taper is on. ADD: Oh great. Now a BLS official is saying that the drop in claims is related to faulty reporting by some states. Obviously this BLS official is short the USD LOL

I bought Cable in its news spike down to the 5775 level, so I hope for a run up before too many take notice of that "ADD" addition.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #69,725
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:56am Sep 12, 2013 7:56am
Quoting Islander
{quote} I bought Cable in its news spike down to the 5775 level, so I hope for a run up before too many take notice of that "ADD" addition.....
no run, just small sized 1 m greenies, so I took the 20 pips that were on offer and will wait for the next opportunity - probably around 9:30 EDT.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #69,726
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:02am Sep 12, 2013 8:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
US Initial jobless claims drops below 300K at 292K First time below 300k since 2006 Obviously this has significant ramifications. Taper is on. ADD: Oh great. Now a BLS official is saying that the drop in claims is related to faulty reporting by some states. Obviously this BLS official is short the USD LOL
Okay let's do some simple math

The BLS said that 2 states (a small one and a big one) reported less than typical because they were retooling their computer systems so not all applications were counted.

Now let's assume that
1. These two states filed zero claims
2. The average of the two states is pretty much equal to the average of all states.

So, last week the claim number was an unadjusted 323K
Divide that by 50 states = approx 6.5K per state
2 states x 6.5K = 13K
292K + 13K = 305K

That's still way better than last week and that is a conservative number, so the real number is probably still under 300K
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,727
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:04am Sep 12, 2013 8:04am
Quoting Islander
{quote} no run, just small sized 1 m greenies, so I took the 20 pips that were on offer and will wait for the next opportunity - probably around 9:30 EDT.....
9:30 edt is good...almost every day ...
  • #69,728
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:06am Sep 12, 2013 8:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay let's do some simple math The BLS said that 2 states (a small one and a big one) reported less than typical because they were retooling their computer systems so not all applications were counted. Now let's assume that 1. These two states filed zero claims 2. The average of the two states is pretty much equal to the average of all states. So, last week the claim number was an unadjusted 323K Divide that by 50 states = approx 6.5K per state 2 states x 6.5K = 13K 292K + 13K = 305K That's still way better than last week and that is a conservative...

The question is
are they going to declare the real number or they will leave it like this?
  • #69,729
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:46am Sep 12, 2013 8:46am
Quoting Evanescence
{quote} The question is are they going to declare the real number or they will leave it like this?
Yes jobless claims are always revised when there are revisions to be made. Therefore I expect to see revisions next week, but by then it won't matter anyway as the Fed decision will already be out.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,730
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:19am Sep 12, 2013 9:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay let's do some simple math(edit) That's still way better than last week and that is a conservative number, so the real number is probably still under 300K
Well that explains everything... A good number for the usd = the usd going down. Silly me
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #69,731
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:26am Sep 12, 2013 9:26am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} Well that explains everything... A good number for the usd = the usd going down. Silly me
The market is frontrunning a "no taper" from the Fed next week. In the process they are executing stop run campaigns on all the retail crowd USD longs.

As for the Euro, we still need a wave 5 completion to the upside and it looks as though the target will be somewhere around 3360/70 area.

A failure to take out yesterday's highs will confirm that a wave 5 is already in place (which I doubt)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,732
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:27am Sep 12, 2013 9:27am
Righty Ho then, numbers embedded, plan being hatched and $$ to be made....Cheers PT for keeping me n the straight and Narrow
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #69,733
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:59am Sep 12, 2013 9:59am
The Euro, along with other risk correlated currencies are having a hard time taking out yesterday's limits vs the USD
So far the daily candle is looking like a hammer. If we don't get a close above yesterday's Euro high, that's a reversal signal.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,734
  • Sep 13, 2013 1:11am Sep 13, 2013 1:11am
good morning all!

EJ
an "obvious" bounce from a key fib level, question remains, up or down?...
given that major fed event is 4 trading days out... we may get a whole lotta nothin till then

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ H4 09.13.13.png Size: 60 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,735
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:10am Sep 13, 2013 2:10am
Quoting theDHT
good morning all! EJ an "obvious" bounce from a key fib level, question remains, up or down?... given that major fed event is 4 trading days out... we may get a whole lotta nothin till then H4 {image}
Very likely

Good morning DHT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,736
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:11am Sep 13, 2013 2:11am
Quoting theDHT
good morning all! EJ an "obvious" bounce from a key fib level, question remains, up or down?... given that major fed event is 4 trading days out... we may get a whole lotta nothin till then H4 {image}
GM

IF UJ has complete a H&S top then EJ should be headed south and IF € does so too then even I will jump onto the Southbound Express.......I only trade EJ when both of its component pairs are moving the same way
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep13 uj 4hr 0700.png Size: 34 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #69,737
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:12am Sep 13, 2013 2:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Very likely Good morning DHT
morning dude!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,738
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:17am Sep 13, 2013 2:17am
Quoting Islander
{quote} GM IF UJ has complete a H&S top then EJ should be headed south and IF € does so too then even I will jump onto the Southbound Express.......I only trade EJ when both of its component pairs are moving the same way {image}

this lady has been cruel to me for many a day
i took a couple of tiny shorts on this pair (stop loss of 1000 pips) on a macro rationale
now, im no fool, i understand that macro trades can take months to pan out
but ive basically been underwater from day 1!!
some constructive risk management/hedging, and i have pretty much recovered my gross losses (on a net basis)
but, i am waiting for the market to start pricing risk the way it "should" and then i'll have my vindication
until then, opportunism is the word!
and when that happens, expect fireworks
i had posted a interview segment from Stan Druckenmiller yesterday (on Bloomberg 2 days ago), I highly recommend sourcing/watching that interview in its entirety... he is one of the founders of the "hedge fund" industry (along w Soros and Paul Tudor Jones etc).. he is SUPER bearish... and very humble...

at this time, my position sheet is blank!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,739
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:24am Sep 13, 2013 2:24am
Quoting theDHT
good morning all! EJ an "obvious" bounce from a key fib level, question remains, up or down?... given that major fed event is 4 trading days out... we may get a whole lotta nothin till then H4 {image}

morning DHT and the thread,

EJ... i only trade this pair with derision... if i can recover the shorts I'd be happy to remove it from my platform.

What i'm having trouble understanding is that the BoJ had previously stated that 100-104 was "acceptible" for UJ. Yet they can't seem to keep it there. That they're pretty much injecting new Yens all day long is obvious from the EW diistortions (especially in EJ which I suspect is their operational target). Whenever UJ hits 100 the net short Commercial orders knock it down straight away and the retail crowd pile back in long. So isn't there a critical moment when the crowd turns on the Yen pairs and they end its levitation trick? The upside progress is really strained and I don't expect it to hold... every new high they squeeze out with great effort adds to the bearish count.

edit: I seem to have posted this at the same time as you, DHT
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,740
  • Sep 13, 2013 2:27am Sep 13, 2013 2:27am
she just doing what she best of.. screw us the the retail traders
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