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AUD/USD

  • #64,801
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:30pm Sep 11, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting GqOrlando
Very interesting read http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/upload/Events_US/AustraliaWebcast_Slides91113.pdf
thank you for sharing. Interesting read indeed. My impression is that with both UK and Europe economies starting recovering AUD may just behave more and more like a risky asset i.e. dodging its fundamentals. I expect more volatility on any AUD pairs in the near term.
  • #64,802
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:36pm Sep 11, 2013 12:36pm
Thar she blows.....
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  • #64,803
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:52pm Sep 11, 2013 12:52pm
all eyes on 93.45/93.55 for a breakout or strong rejection

seems like a lot for a 1month candle though.

94.00 is 500 pips in 10 days...

the stronger this monthly candle closes, the harder it will be for bears to short until 2014.

so if there is going to be a strong rejection, it should happen relatively soon



i took a preliminary short at 93.33

only playing a fade, nothing long term

been playing UJ short all night, look at that daily candle we got here. close below 100 would be nice


but she is looking like a 4 hour bottom is incoming so that could coincide with the AUDUSD pullback
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #64,804
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:57pm Sep 11, 2013 12:57pm
Quoting BobGnarly
{quote} A close above .9320 should do
thks. My take is .9340 close on daily for some more upward momentum. Taken off quite a few pips from other pairs at the moment. Will decide later whether to take a position or 2 off aud/usd at daily close
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #64,805
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:59pm Sep 11, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
all eyes on 93.45/93.55 for a breakout or strong rejection seems like a lot for a 1month candle though. 94.00 is 500 pips in 10 days... the stronger this monthly candle closes, the harder it will be for bears to short until 2014. so if there is going to be a strong rejection, it should happen relatively soon i took a preliminary short at 93.33 only playing a fade, nothing long term been playing UJ short all night, look at that daily candle we got here. close below 100 would be nice but she is looking like a 4 hour bottom is incoming so that could...
Take a look at May candle when she slumped
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #64,806
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:04pm Sep 11, 2013 1:04pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.png Size: 58 KB
locked in profits on all positions @.9300. Will be out of these trades if she retraces
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #64,807
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:12pm Sep 11, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting pbylina
{quote} Don't you mean lower?;-)
The forecast is shown higher than current...............

It looks like we have 5 waves on the H4 chart and tonight's news will rock some movement, fake long and then short if higher numbers come out............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud forecast higher.JPG Size: 27 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,808
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:18pm Sep 11, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Thar she blows.....
In the process of finishing wave 5 .......IMO
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,809
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:21pm Sep 11, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} The forecast is shown higher than current............... It looks like we have 5 waves on the H4 chart and tonight's news will rock some movement, fake long and then short if higher numbers come out............ {image}
Unless unemployment beats expectations or is on target I'm gonna short the rally.

Still holding 2 longs from 9154 and 9238, watching PA pretty close now....
  • #64,810
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:26pm Sep 11, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} In the process of finishing wave 5 .......IMO
What happens after wave 5? Do you have a link to where you base your counts off? How to learn EWP so to speak..?
  • #64,811
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:41pm Sep 11, 2013 1:41pm
elliot wave 5
3345
AUD unemployment

looks like everything is lining up in time for a massive movement.
  • #64,812
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:55pm Sep 11, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Unless unemployment beats expectations or is on target I'm gonna short the rally. Still holding 2 longs from 9154 and 9238, watching PA pretty close now....
great Job ! I have started to fade it short, it's near a high ,until proven different
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,813
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:56pm Sep 11, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} What happens after wave 5? Do you have a link to where you base your counts off? How to learn EWP so to speak..?
.

it's dry reading , but when you learn it , it can be a god send..............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a this one.JPG Size: 115 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,814
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:10pm Sep 11, 2013 2:10pm
When do they release the unemployment numbers?
  • #64,815
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:11pm Sep 11, 2013 2:11pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} . it's dry reading , but when you learn it , it can be a god send.............. {image}
Thanks, picked it up on Amazon for a couple bucks...

Now to the more important things. Failure to break 9337 level, looking at a short here back down to 9240 area if this Roo picks up steam...
  • #64,816
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:16pm Sep 11, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting Baggi
When do they release the unemployment numbers?
930 EST or ~6 hours 15 min from now

Check the calendar: http://www.forexfactory.com/
  • #64,817
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:18pm Sep 11, 2013 2:18pm
Thanks.

As my dad would say, if it were a snake it would have bit me.
  • #64,818
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:37pm Sep 11, 2013 2:37pm
A nice look at some forecasts for AU employment change (pic is a little small sorry)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU polls ue.png Size: 76 KB
  • #64,819
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:43pm Sep 11, 2013 2:43pm
I stayed out all day cos I got tired of watching and waiting for AU to come Southwards, resuming now, it's still the same old sh*t. Does anyone think leaving my short trades on while we await the news is reasonable? Thanks guys.
  • #64,820
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:03pm Sep 11, 2013 3:03pm
Enjoyed the short. Missed the long. Waiting for a new entry point.
Short if price reaches 9380/9400 (white bold line and the middle of ut 9906 and lt 8859).
If price doesn't reach 9380, short under 9287 (red arrow).
If price > 9400 then long.

Good night.
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