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Up and under price pattern

  • #61
  • Sep 9, 2013 6:14am Sep 9, 2013 6:14am
I used to think about that all the time, the "who's doing what" game. I've stopped thinking in those terms because it was like bullshit in my head that was fantastical.

Honestly, I have no real understanding of the reality of the bull bear story, this forex market is vast with huge financial juggernauts fighting it out everyday, I feel like a hair on a testicle of a fly that's on the windscreen of only one of those juggernauts.

The pattern is king for me, and the nearer the new pattern is to the perfect last pattern that I have in my head the better.

I work off probability. How many times as this happened, or that happened with gaps, SFP's, RR's and now this pattern.

If you do this enough you develop a sense of how you like to see the trade set-up, it gives you the freedom to decide what should be done in a particular situation, discretion, without the added baggage of battling animals.

As I'm sure you've seen like many other patterns this one is completely fractal, something is happening to make it happen and repeat...... but I'd rather try and make some money betting on pretty patterns
  • #62
  • Sep 9, 2013 7:30am Sep 9, 2013 7:30am
Interesting, I have named something similar as "change of trend concept".

Good thing about this pattern is that it makes sense (it is logical as price shows signs of sentiment change) and gives you great R:R if you are right.

Still.. there is a room for different interpretations (as I don't agree on several trades presented here, but have expanded this concept to some types which wouldn't meet your criteria.) SL is not always a ''no brainer'' and TP will also depend on how good trader you are. Also I don't really agree on "enter at this level" approach... I believe a lot of edge can be gained with entry timing.

I trade only EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD and on these pairs this concept comes up on regular basis. This works well also on 5mim and 1min TF, but you must have an understanding where you are buying/selling in bigger picture, context plays a big role.
  • #63
  • Sep 9, 2013 7:47am Sep 9, 2013 7:47am
Quoting ARTjoMS
Interesting, I have named something similar as "change of trend concept". Good thing about this pattern is that it makes sense (it is logical as price shows signs of sentiment change) and gives you great R:R if you are right. Still.. there is a room for different interpretations
Hi, feel free to post examples of any such interpretations so we can see what you mean on a chart.
  • #64
  • Sep 9, 2013 2:41pm Sep 9, 2013 2:41pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2013-09-09.png Size: 26 KB


Stopped out, looking to see if level will hold as support.
  • #65
  • Sep 9, 2013 4:40pm Sep 9, 2013 4:40pm
I was reading your first page today, Quidsey and saw your first chart and this one (The one right above) popped immediately into my head. I starred at that chart a lot last night as I too was stopped out and lost $200.00. I set my stop at 90 though, a bit higher than yours. I suspect I lost more money.

Will be interesting to see if this plays out like the chart on your first page.
  • #66
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:12am Sep 10, 2013 12:12am
Quoting Quidsey
I used to think about that all the time, the "who's doing what" game. I've stopped thinking in those terms because it was like bullshit in my head that was fantastical. Honestly, I have no real understanding of the reality of the bull bear story, this forex market is vast with huge financial juggernauts fighting it out everyday, I feel like a hair on a testicle of a fly that's on the windscreen of only one of those juggernauts. The pattern is king for me, and the nearer the new pattern is to the perfect last pattern that I have in my head the...
Lol i like the analogy Yes i agree it is very difficult (if not impossible) to determine what we see.. Some people (and they must for there to be such a market) think the exact opposites all the time so it is very tricky to determine who is right at what time..

Yes i guess the more that you look at the "pretty pattern" the more you start to understand, from previous patterns, which ones work better than others.. Patterns sure are easier to look at then trying to work out what people are thinking as well

Stopped out on that EURUSD also and now another pending as yours.. Had a trade on gbpjpy that got stopped and if i had of been diligent and placed the opposite trade i would have easily made the money back..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.armm15.png Size: 36 KB


Josh
nollej is power..
  • #67
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:20am Sep 10, 2013 2:20am
Hi Baggi I hope that was demo money, don't trade anything live until you've really got a handle on what you're doing. I trade live, but because I've been away for a week I've come back and reduced all my position sizes until I get back up to speed with the market. Capital protection is the number 1 rule.

You say your stop was at 90, do you mean 32290? normally we just go to the 4th decimal place, no need to worry about the pipettes, so your stop would have been at 29.

Losses happen guys, get used to it, so you've got to keep them small. These levels if they are going to work will normally fly straight off the bat, if it looks weak it's time to get ready to scratch. Don't hang around on the hope rope.

The level is still valid for a retest, we'll see how things develop. Price has now retraced 50% of that last move south and we're in no mans land. Are we off to 35 or down to 28?

Always keep an eye on the bigger picture.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2013-09-10.png Size: 28 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_2013-09-10.png Size: 27 KB
  • #68
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:30am Sep 10, 2013 2:30am
Sorry Quidsey, when I said 90, I meant 3190 was my stop loss where I was stopped out.
  • #69
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:33am Sep 10, 2013 2:33am
Quoting Quidsey
{image} Stopped out, looking to see if level will hold as support.

Looks like we are starting to break support right now.
  • #70
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:55am Sep 10, 2013 2:55am
Quoting Baggi
Sorry Quidsey, when I said 90, I meant 3190 was my stop loss where I was stopped out.
Sorry mate you've lost me there, how were you stopped below 3218 (entry short)? or are you talking about another trade?

Always good to slap a chart up, I know it's not always easy but it does save a lot of typing....
  • #71
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:01am Sep 10, 2013 3:01am
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Sorry mate you've lost me there, how were you stopped below 3218 (entry short)? or are you talking about another trade? Always good to slap a chart up, I know it's not always easy but it does save a lot of typing....

Talking about another trade. I entered last night around 3171 and was stopped out at 3190.
  • #72
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:38am Sep 10, 2013 3:38am
Ah ok, not an up & under trade then.
  • #73
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:41am Sep 10, 2013 3:41am
Not an up and under trade.

I only found this thread today and started reading it. I noticed on the first page that pattern you posted, and was trying to point out that it reminded me of the EURUSD that was formed after my loss last night.

That's all. I apologize for the confusion.
  • #74
  • Sep 10, 2013 6:10am Sep 10, 2013 6:10am
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Hi, feel free to post examples of any such interpretations so we can see what you mean on a chart.
Ok, I will give a quick insight about my thoughts about your 1st picutre. (It would take too much time if I write a comment for every chart you have presented)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-10- 14-10-14.png Size: 26 KB


What I don't like about that particualar trade is that it is "kinda old, not good looking" (I really don't know hot to explain it well). Well, I mean.. a lot of stuff has happened meanwhile...

I would argue that if you base your entry only on this concept then very similar trade I marked with tick (on chart) makes much more sense to me. (It is not so "old" if you understand what I mean). As for your trade I would say that this concept certainly played a role, but I believe other factors were more important. (Here I mean one could find an entry even without seeing bigger picture... but certainly this gives an additional edge).

I have also marked two other trades. I highlighted these because they don't meet quasi pattern rules (no real enugulfing breakout), but I find that these come up and work on regular basis, but the right context is necessary. There is more one this chart, but I think this was enough for food for thought.
  • #75
  • Sep 10, 2013 6:58am Sep 10, 2013 6:58am
Quoting ARTjoMS
{quote}..... but I think this was enough for food for thought.
Indeed.
  • #76
  • Sep 10, 2013 6:26pm Sep 10, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting ARTjoMS
{quote} Ok, I will give a quick insight about my thoughts about your 1st picutre. (It would take too much time if I write a comment for every chart you have presented) {image} What I don't like about that particualar trade is that it is "kinda old, not good looking" (I really don't know hot to explain it well). Well, I mean.. a lot of stuff has happened meanwhile... I would argue that if you base your entry only on this concept then very similar trade I marked with tick (on chart) makes much more sense to me. (It is not so "old" if you understand...
I agree with your analysis even if I don't totally understand it.

As to your first down arrow. I thought of that very thing last night. So, I entered into the below trade at 1.3251

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WhereIsMyBreakDown.JPG Size: 190 KB


Notice it did break down, a little, but then came right back up.

My stop loss didn't go off, so I'm still in the trade but i'm 15-20 pips out of the money right now, and it looks like it's setting up for a break to the UP side now, which means my stop will go off, if that happens.

My profit taking was set at 1.3221, which, as you can tell, didn't happen last night.

Quidsey, based on the fact that this is moving so far sideways, would you say the chart you posted above at

  1. Sep 9, 2013 3:41pm (27 hr ago)


Is no longer a set up? Or is it still possible?

  • #77
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:14am Sep 11, 2013 1:14am
Hey Quidsey, interesting pattern you have here. I have my own theories for why it works, but won't go in to that now.

With regards to what happened on EURUSD yesterday - the short trade failed [1], but then we were looking for a bounce long.

Price never got back to the level [2].

At what point would you pull your order? Or is your order still in? That swing low now becomes the FTA, so not too great if you still take the trade?

Same goes for "normal" trades. At what point would you pull your order if price fails to get back to the level and you don't get filled.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.JPG Size: 80 KB
  • #78
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:43am Sep 11, 2013 1:43am
Two trades that triggered today while working..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.armm15.png Size: 43 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.armm15.png Size: 72 KB

Josh
nollej is power..
  • #79
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:06am Sep 11, 2013 2:06am
Hi Gt3rs, good analysis, I totally agree. I pulled that order after the price structure changed. It may well turn on that level but I'm not putting any more money on it.

Same goes for the original pattern, if the price structure creates an solid FTA too close to my entry then I pass. If price misses my entry that's just tough, I'm not chasing after it, or if price gets close to the TP and hangs around, as it sometimes does, I'm going to take it.

Baggi mate be careful with the way you're trading, seems erratic.
  • #80
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:59am Sep 11, 2013 2:59am
Hi Josh, got your eye in there for this pattern

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 11092013.png Size: 25 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 11092013.png Size: 20 KB


I really liked the GBP one short but just didn't quite pullback enough for me.
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